CO SciFan Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 CSU just announced they are closing early due to falling tree limbs. Campus will close at 12:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 In looking at the water vapor loop, it appears that dry air is working in from the southwest. However it doesn't appear that NWS is concerned with that as they have bumped up totals across the board. Here is the new P&C for mby: Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. North northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 28 by midnight. North northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. North wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 24 minutes ago, ValpoVike said: In looking at the water vapor loop, it appears that dry air is working in from the southwest. However it doesn't appear that NWS is concerned with that as they have bumped up totals across the board. Here is the new P&C for mby: Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. North northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 28 by midnight. North northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. North wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Looks insane out there on the Elkorn Ave cam. Also the dryslot looks like it's northwestward progress has stalled already. https://www.estesparkwebcams.com/elkhorn-avenue-webcam-east-old-church-shops/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 We just had the first thunder snow I've experienced in a long time! Large trees are breaking apart, this is going to be messy. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2017 Author Share Posted May 18, 2017 We have quite a storm. There are large flakes. You can clearly see the slush on the street. The snow seems to be packing down, it's larger than a 10:1 ratio, but I don't know how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 This is insane...it's May 18!!! I know CO and WY climo leans toward bigger snowstorms in March/April vs. DJF...but wow. And this isn't just a high mountain top event...although even that would be impressive for the time of year. Cheyenne is expecting 12-18", and Laramie 18-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 It is insane. We are approaching 2' here. Edit - about 20" but hard to accurately measure as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 and of course I flew to DC where it's 90 and humid... enjoy (I guess?!?) stay safe and hope your trees are OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Have to say, was pretty sure something like this would happen for CO given how many big time late snows we've had down here this year. There were major storms 2/28, 3/29, 4/29, before today (5/18). All heavy snow or blizzards. Pretty good for Spring. Lot of places in NM had near-record late measurable snow, so it makes sense that CO would later in the season. "Here comes the Sun" --> colder upper atmosphere, blocking, etc. This is part of why I went with a "cool" June in much of the West too...gonna be a lot of snow in May this month to kill the build up of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 I am sure there are many branches down around town. This tree is droopy. It just kept snowing. We never had a monthly total 6" of snow in March or November or October or February... now we got that in 12 hours on May 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Wow great pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 We got buried. Here just north of Estes, 31". Still had periods of +SN until about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 2 hours ago, ValpoVike said: We got buried. Here just north of Estes, 31". Still had periods of +SN until about 20 minutes ago. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Final photo, I promise. This is a shot west towards the divide once the storm cleared. Now it is time to enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Been watching this. How about some snow totals? Cannot find any info on the web so far. Great pictures too. Keep them coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 30 minutes ago, yotaman said: Been watching this. How about some snow totals? Cannot find any info on the web so far. Great pictures too. Keep them coming. I came in at about 31" just north of Estes Park. I heard the max was 42" near Allenspark. Edit: Here is a link to NWS Denver snowfall reports: http://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=bou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 I think I got 7" here with extremely low snow ratio, with some 1.85 to 3.25" of precipitation on CoCoRAHS reports from 7AM Thursday to 7AM today, and it snowed for approximately *those* 24 hours. A 31" snow report is hidden under the 25" icon at Estes Park. 3.1" in the mountains is obviously a very early report (May 17 maybe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Ended up with about a foot of cement in my area of Bailey. Spring storms are nice here because the moist layer is deeper, meaning we don't get shafted as often on the downsloping from a higher ridge to the northeast. Typical midwinter storms give areas 10 miles NE of me at the same elevation 2-4x the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21, 2017 Author Share Posted May 21, 2017 This pic is from this evening, some 36 hours after the storm. Much of the snow has melted, but not all. That's really an indicator of the density of the snow that fell. Thousands of limbs are down around town, many of them seem to be 1" to 3" branches, but some could be much bigger branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 21, 2017 Share Posted May 21, 2017 It is remarkable at how quickly the snow has melted. We have gone from 31" on the ground Friday morning, down to mostly small patches of snow which I believe will all be gone by end of day. This should really help green things up and recharge the aquifers. I do wonder how this will affect the traditional target opening date of Memorial Day for Trail Ridge Road up on the divide, which unfortunately likely will be later. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 In Fort Collins, west of Drake and College got hit really hard and some very large trees/limbs came down. Probably the biggest was half of one of the biggest cottonwoods in Colorado. See below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 22, 2017 Author Share Posted May 22, 2017 Temps are 36-50 in southeast Wyoming, with some rain. Temps have fallen to about 50 here, with some rain coming in. Fort Collins got 0.18" of rain yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 It's pretty amazing at how different SSTA are from last May 22. I used +/3.2K but some places have changed by more than that. Relatively radical changes in AMO/PDO/ONI values seem more common near the solar minimum, so suspect this type of wild/quick swinging in ocean temperatures will continue for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 New severe thunderstorm watch for much of the Front Range and east. Isolated cell just popped up and moved over our neighborhood, no hail for us but smallish hail just south. Will be really interesting to see what happens to this cell as it moves east and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 I'm starting to think this is going to be a cool Summer for much of the interior West. I do think the West Coast is warm, and TX / SE NM is warm, but for the rest of the West the huge rains and snows this winter seem like they will interfere with the heat build up. If the research on the sun is right and you get enhanced cloudiness near the minimum, that would also put the kibosh on the intense build up of heat in the hottest valleys. Where I am, we can have our first 90F day as early as May 3 based on our records. May 25 is average for 1931-2016. But it hasn't happened yet. It's interesting because the number of 90F days is somewhat strongly correlated to first 90F day. We're unlikely to hit 90F here until at least June 3rd or so, which is fairly late historically. ABQ Total 90F Days: By Date of 1st 90F Day, 1931-2016 1st 90F Day Years 90F Mean Least Most June 27 56.8 23 86 May 20-31 27 67.9 42 92 May 1-19 32 65.9 43 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2017 Author Share Posted May 30, 2017 500mb loop of last week's great snowstorm http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/May_17_19_2017_500mb_loop.html May 2017 so far: 7.5" of snow, 2.50" water equivalent of snow. total precipitation: 4.76" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Canadian Model still has an El Nino developing for Fall/Winter...but much weaker than its last run. Looks moderate in December, maybe it gets to +1.0C in Nino 3.4 briefly in DJF? May still be struggling with what will happen as its forecast for June from May 1 looks too warm for Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 Here are the latest ocean/solar numbers: Sun (May 17): 18.8 sunspots. Trailing 12 months to May: 28.6 ONI (Mar-May 17): +0.4C AMO (May 17): +0.32 (4th highest May value of this positive AMO cycle!) PDO: (May 17) - NOAA has it at 0.36, down from 0.52. Suspect JISAO value dropped some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 We are going to get into a time period of summer scorcher type heat, with mid-90s reaching from northeast Nebraska to Denver to El Paso over the weekend. 100 degrees will exist west of Dodge City and west of Midland-Odessa TX. Denver point&click forecast Friday Sunny, with a high near 93. West southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61. South southwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 96. South southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. really, really cool re-tweet from Jim Cantore about 10 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 May data is in for the US Climate Divisions. Took a little while, but it looks like Spring was reproducible fairly well with 1963, 1986 and 1997 blended together. All of those years were La Nina / Cold Neutral before Summer, then El Nino in the winter after the Summer. All had positive PDO values, with low solar activity. With 1963 & 1997 weighted more than 1986 you also get a positive AMO value. 1997 had the big/cold/late systems in Spring just like this year. Those years combined are warm in the South, with cool spots by the NW coast, New England, and Michigan. It's an ~80%+ match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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