2017 Spring/Summer Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Thanks for the concern.  Had some computer problems at home then took vacation to see the eclipse.  See post in Eclipse thread.  Plus the weather wasn't really all that exciting.

Glad to hear from ya.

[RogueWaves]

On 8/28/2017 at 11:59 AM, Hoosier said:

It'll die right in time for winter.  

One could certainly feel that way, lol. But the last two MET autumns were over all mild, and we haven't had a (super) early autumn since Idk? '09?  We may be due a cold autumn and early winter instead of the flip/torches of the last two.

[n1vek]

Nearly stationary storm sitting over Windsor Ontario for about 2 hours now. It has occasionally crept across the river and it brought some crazy rain to downtown Detroit. Has to be localized flooding under those returns.

[RogueWaves]

25 minutes ago, n1vek said:

Nearly stationary storm sitting over Windsor Ontario for about 2 hours now. It has occasionally crept across the river and it brought some crazy rain to downtown Detroit. Has to be localized flooding under those returns.

The Harvey effect!

[Jonger]

56 minutes ago, n1vek said:

Nearly stationary storm sitting over Windsor Ontario for about 2 hours now. It has occasionally crept across the river and it brought some crazy rain to downtown Detroit. Has to be localized flooding under those returns.

It has been feast or famine.

Over the past 48 hours, my PWS has recorded .07 of liquid.

[buckeye]

Thought we had a winter '17-'18 prelim thoughts thread but I couldn't find it.   Anyways, I see Bastardi is out with wxbell's prelim winter forecast, (no, I'm not a paying member, it's viewable to the public).   Anyways, yawwwwwwwwn.   Not as mild as last winter, (how could it be??), but not as cold and snowy as the 2 before it, (now there's a forecast going out on a limb).   Overall most of the sub he has as -1 temp for Nov-Feb.  

Reading Bastardi for years and years, I translate that into him thinking it's going to be a milder winter again but doesn't want to alienate potential winter subscription renewals.

I suspect that locally, he'll be correct.   We will probably beat our 9" last winter but still end up with a winter that will be far short of memorable.

....Ok enough of that, back to enjoying this beautiful late summer wx!

 

 

[Stebo]

If Bustardi is calling for -1 for the season, expect +3-6

[rainsucks]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Thought we had a winter '17-'18 prelim thoughts thread but I couldn't find it.   Anyways, I see Bastardi is out with wxbell's prelim winter forecast, (no, I'm not a paying member, it's viewable to the public).   Anyways, yawwwwwwwwn.   Not as mild as last winter, (how could it be??), but not as cold and snowy as the 2 before it, (now there's a forecast going out on a limb).   Overall most of the sub he has as -1 temp for Nov-Feb.  

Reading Bastardi for years and years, I translate that into him thinking it's going to be a milder winter again but doesn't want to alienate potential winter subscription renewals.

I suspect that locally, he'll be correct.   We will probably beat our 9" last winter but still end up with a winter that will be far short of memorable.

....Ok enough of that, back to enjoying this beautiful late summer wx!

 

 

lol you still follow JB? 

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

If Bustardi is calling for -1 for the season, expect +3-6

that's about right

[buckeye]

18 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

lol you still follow JB? 

Well yea duh.   How can I legitmately bash the guy if I don't follow him?

[Hoosier]

JB will be retired and 90 years old and buckeye will still be following him on Twitter or whatever is around then.

[buckeye]

So the 06z gfs shows a 900mb (26.58 inches), hurricane approaching the southeast coast around day 9.   When it hits South Carolina it 'weakens' to 946.   A nice chuckle with my morning coffee but it got me wondering if there is some kind of law of physics that caps a hurricane/cyclone's lowest possible pressure and what that is.

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

So the 06z gfs shows a 900mb (26.58 inches), hurricane approaching the southeast coast around day 9.   When it hits South Carolina it 'weakens' to 946.   A nice chuckle with my morning coffee but it got me wondering if there is some kind of law of physics that caps a hurricane/cyclone's lowest possible pressure and what that is.

lol I certainly don't know the answer to that question. Posted for posterity.

[Hoosier]

Last night I dreamt that I was at the 2024 eclipse.  I'm not sure where I was located but the sun appeared larger than it should have, like you would see maybe 30 minutes or an hour before sunset.  This of course makes no sense for the 2024 eclipse as it will be occurring at roughly the same time of day as the one last week.  Anyway, I think this may be a sign of eclipse withdrawal.  

[buckeye]

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

lol I certainly don't know the answer to that question. Posted for posterity.

and the 12z doubles down with it getting to 898mb ....   I think that might be considered a cat 1 black hole

For shizzle and giggles I wonder what peak wind gusts would be on a 26.52, (898mb), pressure hurricane?

[IWXwx]

32 minutes ago, buckeye said:

and the 12z doubles down with it getting to 898mb ....   I think that might be considered a cat 1 black hole

For shizzle and giggles I wonder what peak wind gusts would be on a 26.52, (898mb), pressure hurricane?

Jim Cantore would need to be wearing Depends on air. That's approaching Wilma status.

[Hoosier]

39 minutes ago, buckeye said:

and the 12z doubles down with it getting to 898mb ....   I think that might be considered a cat 1 black hole

For shizzle and giggles I wonder what peak wind gusts would be on a 26.52, (898mb), pressure hurricane?

Probably something like 180-200 mph, if not a bit higher.  

I read about the GFS having a bias with overdeepening hurricanes, so it may be overdone, but at this point there's no reason to discount a possible cat 4/5 with the possible exception of land interaction (especially if it's Hispaniola/Cuba).

[IWXwx]

Made me look, this run keeps it out to sea

EDIT: Concerning my Wilma comment above, didn't it drop to like 880something?

[buckeye]

13 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Jim Cantore would need to be wearing Depends on air. That's approaching Wilma status.

lol....

honestly I didn't realize there was orecedence for such a strong hurricane.    I had never heard of a sub 900mb hurricance....so apparently it is rare but not unheard of.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

lol....

honestly I didn't realize there was orecedence for such a strong hurricane.    I had never heard of a sub 900mb hurricance....so apparently it is rare but not unheard of.

Yes.  Rita was another one that got below 900 mb, and Katrina came pretty close I think.

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Made me look, this run keeps it out to sea

EDIT: Concerning my Wilma comment above, didn't it drop to like 880something?

882mb at its peak.

[Geoboy645]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

lol....

honestly I didn't realize there was orecedence for such a strong hurricane.    I had never heard of a sub 900mb hurricance....so apparently it is rare but not unheard of.

There has actually been plenty of sub 900 hurricanes in history. The most notable ones being Typhoon Tip in 1979 with a pressure of 870 mb,Hurricane Patricia of 2015 with a pressure of 872 mb,and the aforementioned Hurricane Wilma with a pressure of 882 mb.

[Hoosier]

Without checking, guessing sub 900 mb is more common in the Pacific than Atlantic?

[Stebo]

5 in Atlantic all time Wilma 882mb, Gilbert 888mb, 1935 892mb, Rita 895mb, Allen 899mb. Eastern Pacific only 1 Patricia 872mb

Western Pacific 39 <900mb Tip being 870mb.

2 in SW Indian Ocean

3 in South Pacific

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

5 in Atlantic all time Wilma 882mb, Gilbert 888mb, 1935 892mb, Rita 895mb, Allen 899mb. Eastern Pacific only 1 Patricia 872mb

Western Pacific 39 <900mb Tip being 870mb.

2 in SW Indian Ocean

3 in South Pacific

Hello!

[Stebo]

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hello!

Deeper water more expansive, not too surprising. E Pac surprises me though considering the number of Cat 5s it has had.

[Hoosier]

Hey buckeye, there's a GEFS member that has Irma at 967 mb in southern Ohio.  I hate to say anything is meteorologically impossible but that might just be.

[Hoosier]

While we're on the tropical subject, here is something interesting that was discovered a few years ago.  I'm not sure if it was already posted but I don't remember seeing it before.  It is an early season hurricane from May 1863 that slipped under the radar, likely due to the Civil War.  It was named Amanda because of a ship that was run aground, and made landfall in Florida as a category 2 with 105 mph winds and then the remnants moved into the Midwest. Not easy to find a lot of weather data from back then so who knows what kind of rain amounts it produced.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00171.1

[Snowstorms]

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

While we're on the tropical subject, here is something interesting that was discovered a few years ago.  I'm not sure if it was already posted but I don't remember seeing it before.  It is an early season hurricane from May 1863 that slipped under the radar, likely due to the Civil War.  It was named Amanda because of a ship that was run aground, and made landfall in Florida as a category 2 with 105 mph winds and then the remnants moved into the Midwest. Not easy to find a lot of weather data from back then so who knows what kind of rain amounts it produced.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00171.1

Looking back through Toronto's weather history, this post tropical storm dropped around 1.18" of rain in the city. Not a whole lot but I'm sure it would have been a nice event. With the way Irma is being modeled as of right now, which is bound to change indefinitely, the closet comparison is probably Hazel or Frances in my opinion. 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1881&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=5&Day=31&Year=1863

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Looking back through Toronto's weather history, this post tropical storm dropped around 1.18" of rain in the city. Not a whole lot but I'm sure it would have been a nice event. With the way Irma is being modeled as of right now, which is bound to change indefinitely, the closet comparison is probably Hazel or Frances in my opinion. 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1881&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=5&Day=31&Year=1863

Long way out but I do think there's potential for some pretty high winds inland with Irma, given the potential landfall intensity and modeled forward speed after landfall.  Where that is remains to be seen of course.