Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Watching the Irma coverage yesterday, it was impressive to see those trees holding up in gusts over 100 mph, especially the palm trees. Of course there was still plenty of tree damage. But I was thinking if you put those kind of winds on our trees, it would pretty much be total wipeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 So, I looked through the NWS's Hazard Simplification changes, and while the majority are good, I think the Freezing Rain Advisory this cycle should be kept, while their future idea to change Flash Flood Watches to just Flood Watches also isn't a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 On the hazard simplification note I feel that "Winter Weather Advisory" is just unnecessarily vague in general, and especially so now that they are consolidating the Freezing Rain Advisory into it. It looks like their goal is simpler/fewer types of warnings/watches/advisories with more to-the-point detail in the description. To be completely honest I don't think the public cares too much about this stuff. I think they check the forecast for any sensible weather, i.e. "will it rain tomorrow" and leave it at that. When there's hazardous weather I think they sort of hear the type of advisory (i.e. they see Winter Storm Warning) and then they listen to their preferred TV weather man break down the threat. But my opinion is that they don't care too much about the hazardous weather except when it's a very newsworthy event directly affecting them. Just in conversations with people I hear them misquote forecasts all the time if weather comes up. For instance if there's a Winter Storm Warning and it comes up in conversation they might say "Oh yeah I heard we're getting another 6 inches tomorrow morning!" even if the actual forecast was for snow tapering off by 11 P.M. that night. Just the other day my professor mentioned that hurricanes Irma, Katia, and Jose would all bring hurricane impacts to the US when Irma was the only one that had a realistic threat of that (a Jose landfall was (and still is) way out of predictability range). I think he just saw a headline containing the three hurricane names but didn't investigate any more. This is the real challenge in making a WRN. The public just doesn't care at all about interesting/hazardous weather, and they're perfectly fine with only being generally aware of a warning/advisory being in affect and nothing more (with the exception of maybe Tornado Warnings, at least here in the Midwest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I'm going to miss the lake effect products. But overall, I understand the desire to simplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 17 hours ago, The_Doctor said: On the hazard simplification note I feel that "Winter Weather Advisory" is just unnecessarily vague in general, and especially so now that they are consolidating the Freezing Rain Advisory into it. It looks like their goal is simpler/fewer types of warnings/watches/advisories with more to-the-point detail in the description. To be completely honest I don't think the public cares too much about this stuff. I think they check the forecast for any sensible weather, i.e. "will it rain tomorrow" and leave it at that. When there's hazardous weather I think they sort of hear the type of advisory (i.e. they see Winter Storm Warning) and then they listen to their preferred TV weather man break down the threat. But my opinion is that they don't care too much about the hazardous weather except when it's a very newsworthy event directly affecting them. Just in conversations with people I hear them misquote forecasts all the time if weather comes up. For instance if there's a Winter Storm Warning and it comes up in conversation they might say "Oh yeah I heard we're getting another 6 inches tomorrow morning!" even if the actual forecast was for snow tapering off by 11 P.M. that night. Just the other day my professor mentioned that hurricanes Irma, Katia, and Jose would all bring hurricane impacts to the US when Irma was the only one that had a realistic threat of that (a Jose landfall was (and still is) way out of predictability range). I think he just saw a headline containing the three hurricane names but didn't investigate any more. This is the real challenge in making a WRN. The public just doesn't care at all about interesting/hazardous weather, and they're perfectly fine with only being generally aware of a warning/advisory being in affect and nothing more (with the exception of maybe Tornado Warnings, at least here in the Midwest). The average Joe only looks at temps and % chance of precip. They also look at snow predictions, that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, Jonger said: The average Joe only looks at temps and % chance of precip. They also look at the top end of snow predictions, that's it. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 I can never understand why anyone would want cold weather all the time and wish for record-breaking cold no matter the season. Winter is so awful, and cold springs are the worst. Also, cold is far more deadly than heat, but some are too ignorant to realize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 2 hours ago, rainsucks said: I can never understand why anyone would want cold weather all the time and wish for record-breaking cold no matter the season. Winter is so awful, and cold springs are the worst. Also, cold is far more deadly than heat, but some are too ignorant to realize that. hopefully you don't live a long lake michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, UMB WX said: hopefully you don't live a long lake michigan Yeah, but even Jonger and I agree with him on that point, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Yeah, but even Jonger and I agree with him on that point, lol Oh I agree cold springs are the pits. If he lives close to the lake like I do it's always the pits. Get away from the lake and springs are normally pretty spectacular in the midwest if you keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Oh I agree cold springs are the pits. If he lives close to the lake like I do it's always the pits. Get away from the lake and springs are normally pretty spectacular in the midwest if you keep expectations in check. Truth, huge difference sometimes between just Milwaukee and Madison/Rockford, let alone other parts of the Midwest. This is why I think the best four seasons climo is probably a city like Madison, though if you take out April and May I guess lakeside cities like Milwaukee are pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Well, this wouldn't be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Well, this wouldn't be good Yeah that wouldn't be good. Hope they have a quiet finish to the tropical season. Getting kind of fun to scroll through the long range GFS maps that show snow from time to time in the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krfd Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Yeah that wouldn't be good. Hope they have a quiet finish to the tropical season. Getting kind of fun to scroll through the long range GFS maps that show snow from time to time in the Rockies. I follow a bunch of ski related Facebook pages, they were recapping all the peaks that have seen first snow in the last few days. Mainly in Canada, Banff etc. It's happening :-)Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krfd Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Alta in Utah and Telluride in Colorado, both taken this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Some entertaining Fujiwhara interaction as Jose gets flung back toward the coast. Would be pretty crazy to see anything like this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 An inside day today. Cranked the A.C. to 70 and doing some web work for the Business. Hopefully next weekend has better weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/15/2017 at 1:18 PM, krfd said: Alta in Utah and Telluride in Colorado, both taken this morning. Nice. That's weather you can enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 It looks like the heat won't make it far enough east this week for DAY to hit 90° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: It looks like the heat won't make it far enough east this week for DAY to hit 90° lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 This is an article about how the NWS fixed the wind chill index in 2001. This story is about engineer Maurice Bluestein from Indianapolis, who realized the old wind chill index was wrong, and did something about it. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/science/maurice-bluestein-who-modernized-the-wind-chill-index-dies-at-76.html?smid=tw-nytimesscience&smtyp=cur Quote The two began studying wind chill and wrote papers about their findings, drawing the attention of both the United States and Canadian governments in 2001. Soon they were enlisted by both countries to develop a new formula. As part of the project they conducted a series of experiments with 12 people, male and female, measuring heat loss from the face in cold and wind as they walked on treadmills in a wind tunnel at different temperatures. A “wet trial” sprayed participants’ faces with a splash of water every 15 seconds to measure whether the presence of precipitation would make people feel colder. After plotting the data, they found that in some cases the original wind chill index was off by just a few degrees, but that the discrepancy grew at higher wind speeds. It confirmed what many meteorologists had already suspected: The old calculation had exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Getting some conflicting signals about winter. Some reasons to be optimistic if you like cold/snow, but some things that are a little disconcerting (some 2nd year Ninas after a Nino really stunk!). Whatever happens happens, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Getting some conflicting signals about winter. Some reasons to be optimistic if you like cold/snow, but some things that are a little disconcerting (some 2nd year Ninas after a Nino really stunk!). Whatever happens happens, right? I'm surprised we don't have a winter thread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm surprised we don't have a winter thread yet. Well, there was one made in jest like 6 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Getting some conflicting signals about winter. Some reasons to be optimistic if you like cold/snow, but some things that are a little disconcerting (some 2nd year Ninas after a Nino really stunk!). Whatever happens happens, right? Hopefully that full-on lag effect that happened with the Super NINO carries over so that this acts more like the 1st yr Nina we thought we were getting last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Hot and humid in late September sucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Anyone want to place bets on whether this is overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Anyone want to place bets on whether this is overdone? I'll bet every dollar I have that it is. Maybe if that high was 1060mb, then I could believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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