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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

1976 and 2002, but 2 weeks later so 3-4F hotter?  (Easter Sunday 1976 was mid-90s NYC to BOS as we headed from NNJ toward Maine, and we thought we were going to fry the engine on our Beetle - air-cooling isn't that great in that kind of heat.  What a relief to reach northern Maine with temp 60 and still some snow piles.)


Why useless? Beach or open pools 

That's fine if swimming in 50F water is your thing.  (And up here, Long Lake in Belgrade still has ice in its north cove.)  Big early heat usually includes stiff breezes and low humidity, accompanied by brush fires.

And Long Lake in Sinclair and St. Agatha still has Ice on much of the lake lol!!

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What were 850s during the April heat of 2003?  

Oh ...heh, you know me - i don't do specifics too well.  f if can't recall dates worth a shister either. 

but my original 'awe' this morning was based upon 20 to 22 C at 850 on the Euro, which on April 30th I know I have never seen.  ...I remember that hot air in April of 2003 and we managed 96 as the hottest ... but that's says nothing about 850, no -

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

And Long Lake in Sinclair and St. Agatha still has Ice on much of the lake lol!!

That's why fishing season begins on May 1 up there, rather than April 1 like much of Maine.  In cold winters like 13-14, when my (milder) area never sniffed 70 until the 2nd week of May, some northern Maine lakes might not have cleared much before Memorial Day.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting CAD'd with +20 850 temps...looks like early June or something, lol.

pretty classic yeah. 

but (not that anyone really thinks so..) that's technically not a BD..

the front comes through the day before and the high builds in and noses down as it moves by to the N over the next day - completely different evolution compared to 00z and why obviously a D9 is a joke... Might be more of a BD farther down the EC.

annywho, I do believe we are going to get unusual early heat at some point this year.  It may not be that gig per se but we keep seeing this tendency toward -PNAPs and we've already verified two 20+ers as a direct result of a couple of them actually verifying...  It just wants to this time.

It's also something we haven't seen in recent springs as we've had four years running of BDs or/NW flow types that ended up into uber dry summers.  But this time, I think we are setting the table for a summer with more of an oscillation of heat and thunder, just based on these mid spring trends -

We'll see.  

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Could be a decent setup for localized heavy rain in a narrow zone near and just west of coastal front too. Big cutoff with strong mid level E-SE flow overrunning cold low level NE winds. Usually a good recipe for heavy rain this time of year.  This thing as a highly anomalous PWAT plume moving in aloft.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a decent setup for localized heavy rain in a narrow zone near and just west of coastal front too. Big cutoff with strong mid level E-SE flow overrunning cold low level NE winds. Usually a good recipe for heavy rain this time of year.  This thing as a highly anomalous PWAT plume moving in aloft.

Heh...not to be a dink but, "BIG" cut-off ?

I get you mean, tho.   

For the general reader, ...this kind of opening/filling closed low that ends up as a damped(ing) open wave as it escapes our latitudes, they are sensibly more akin to warm-fronts? 

The air mass behind them is definitively warmer when that sort of synoptic evolution unfolds. The air mass that precedes in the transport media ahead of the low level pressure pattern is where all the "cold" actually is - or in this case, putrid Atlantic Labrador poop.  So you're socked in with misery mist and rains ....and then, the sky is bright on the SW horizon, and suddenly it's a west wind with temperatures rising, even though there is no warm boundary per se on the surface analysis'. Almost like it evolves into a warm frontal wave...

I've seen variations of this in late winters too, where you get a cold high parked N and wave approaches from the S and it's all CCB...but the air mass behind isn't advecting cold, it's actually transporting modified Pacific rotted air... So it's warmer immediately after. 

This ordeal this week strikes me as that sort of set up, only up the dial a ways.  In fact, I was just reviewing the 00z EPS mean and it's really kind of gone back to a solid 2 to 3 day look of well above normal, if/when just going by the smoothed geopotential medium and anomalies therein.. The operational version, however, has a deep transit SPV over Ontario during the max of the ridge evolution ...which it uses to generate stronger surface high that effectively prevents the extent of warming as portrayed/suggessted by its EPS mean. It argues the operational run is an outlier of sort with that warm denting presence.   

 

Not sure which way to go on that...but, that deep massive gyre rolling through D 6 over Ontario looks suspiciously vestigial to the Euro's old bias of drilling heights too prodigiously in late medium ranges.  

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...not to be a dink but, "BIG" cut-off ?

I get you mean, tho.   

For the general reader, ...this kind of opening/filling closed low that ends up as a damped(ing) open wave as it escapes our latitudes, they are sensibly more akin to warm-fronts? 

The air mass behind them is definitively warmer when that sort of synoptic evolution unfolds. The air mass that precedes in the transport media ahead of the low level pressure pattern is where all the "cold" actually is - or in this case, putrid Atlantic Labrador poop.  So you're socked in with misery mist and rains ....and then, the sky is bright on the SW horizon, and suddenly it's a west wind with temperatures rising, even though there is no warm boundary per se on the surface analysis'. Almost like it evolves into a warm frontal wave...

I've seen variations of this in late winters too, where you get a cold high parked N and wave approaches from the S and it's all CCB...but the air mass behind isn't advecting cold, it's actually transporting modified Pacific rotted air... So it's warmer immediately after. 

This ordeal this week strikes me as that sort of set up, only up the dial a ways.  In fact, I was just reviewing the 00z EPS mean and it's really kind of gone back to a solid 2 to 3 day look of well above normal, if/when just going by the smoothed geopotential medium and anomalies therein.. The operational version, however, has a deep transit SPV over Ontario during the max of the ridge evolution ...which it uses to generate stronger surface high that effectively prevents the extent of warming as portrayed/suggessted by its EPS mean. It argues the operational run is an outlier of sort with that warm denting presence.   

 

Not sure which way to go on that...but, that deep massive gyre rolling through D 6 over Ontario looks suspiciously vestigial to the Euro's old bias of drilling heights too prodigiously in late medium ranges.  

Yeah you cans see it in the ensembles.And forecasts will have 75..and increase little by little all week.. There's gonna be a day or 2 that get well into the 80's to possibly 90, and folks are gone be asking where that game from as they sweat with sheets stuck to buttocks for a night or 2 before the front late weekend.

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59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah you cans see it in the ensembles.And forecasts will have 75..and increase little by little all week.. There's gonna be a day or 2 that get well into the 80's to possibly 90, and folks are gone be asking where that game from as they sweat with sheets stuck to buttocks for a night or 2 before the front late weekend.

One day of dews in the low 60s ain't gonna stick anyone's butt to anything. Meh

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22 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Wow, that thing was a wizened old fella when Washington was chasing off the Redcoats. To think that tree was around before Columbus showed up blows my mind.

Yeah it's incredible.  What an impressive tree.  

The time scale is crazy...nature does some pretty damn cool stuff.

 

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