Hazey Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Would be a nice pattern in the winter. Ridge out west, trough in the Lakes and Northeast.Oh how we pray that this holds on for another 6 months. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, Hazey said: Oh how we pray that this holds on for another 6 months. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It won't. You can't keep this pattern for that long. Folks that enjoy this are going to pay the piper this winter..and those of that didn't want this..are going to suffer due to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Ahhh if only we could control the weather... naturally if this winter isn't that good it will all be because of those who enjoy temps in the upper 70s in the summer ;). 45F this morning for the low at MVL and I had 47F on the car driving into work. Actually turned the heat on in the car too. First time for that in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It won't. You can't keep this pattern for that long. Folks that enjoy this are going to pay the piper this winter..and those of that didn't want this..are going to suffer due to them Really... we've just kept it since April ... what should make us believe it changes suddenly now ... when it is convenient to those that resist seasonal change? (ha). I know what you means tho - 'relative' to that trough biased summer, this is a bit of huger push in that regard. That push could if not should relax in a week or so... What I find intriguing is that this is happening when the models were really all individually, and in blend, signaling the opposite would happen during this last 10 days of August ...back, or around the 11th of the month's extended means. Well, not only was that wrong, but it is being smacked in the face! That ending affectation has also been part of the summer plague dude. Not just the unrelenting return to troughing and failed eastern ridging...but seemingly doing it to mock the guidance (and those that were particularly interested in believing the guidance ) ...not having a good summer? Just kidding! relax.. But seriously, I still don't see any reason why any of that has to change heading into the Autumn. Oh it certainly could - not a prediction per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 and jesus ... the 06z GFS ... actually, a lot of the GFS runs as of late, trying to bring winter in September. it's got a -3 or even -4 SD trough node by D10 just N of Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Ahhh if only we could control the weather... naturally if this winter isn't that good it will all be because of those who enjoy temps in the upper 70s in the summer ;). 45F this morning for the low at MVL and I had 47F on the car driving into work. Actually turned the heat on in the car too. First time for that in a long time. Yeah I've been plotting all summer how to keep a trough through August and September so that we can torch in winter...maybe my plan will work. I'm still tweaking things, but I'm starting to get this "controlling the weather" thing down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I've been plotting all summer how to keep a trough through August and September so that we can torch in winter...maybe my plan will work. I'm still tweaking things, but I'm starting to get this "controlling the weather" thing down pretty good. The people I talk to say you're doing a good job. Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I've been plotting all summer how to keep a trough through August and September so that we can torch in winter...maybe my plan will work. I'm still tweaking things, but I'm starting to get this "controlling the weather" thing down pretty good. You can just picture the posts this winter.... every cutter will be because of those who enjoyed a trough in the summer. Sort of like those posts where everyone knows a cutter is coming except one poster who refuses to believe it. Then the day it rains you get littered with "well all of you forecasting a cutter got your wish, a rainstorm in January" posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Yup prepare for the "you wanted it, you got it" posts. In all seriousness, what is the longest a pattern has sustained itself? Could this ridge west/trough east, last a year? any previous examples of locked pattern longevity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yup prepare for the "you wanted it, you got it" posts. In all seriousness, what is the longest a pattern has sustained itself? Could this ridge west/trough east, last a year? any previous examples of locked pattern longevity? yeah.... pretty much 1974 - 1979 ... there were variations in there (duh) as of course there would be; at times distracting from the persistent theme,... but the longer term, multi-seasonal multi-year base-line construct tend to always settle back toward +anomaly PNAP. Perennial North American Pattern, which at geo-stationary values forces a modest ridge in the west coupled with a mass conserved depression downstream. has to do with mountain torque budget ... complex. So, a + bias in that regard is just imagining taking that flat western eastern set up and amplifying it to whatever degree. anyway, this happened in the 1970s ... and kind of during the 1990s ... lost it in the late 1990s through ...sort of came back in 2002-2005....lost it.. now, it's back... who knows how long it lasts... But it's really more like you get patterns over top of it - ... it's really more about "tendency vectors" ...I used to call that 'correction vectors' back in the day. but it's the 'least excuse imagined' direction things just want to go. well, you have 'want to go' eras - ... ha. humor aside, there are physical reasons why that all happens of course... I think it interesting, however, that the tendency vector seems to correlate with the solar cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: You can just picture the posts this winter.... every cutter will be because of those who enjoyed a trough in the summer. Sort of like those posts where everyone knows a cutter is coming except one poster who refuses to believe it. Then the day it rains you get littered with "well all of you forecasting a cutter got your wish, a rainstorm in January" posts. This is what happens to you and Jspin unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah.... pretty much 1974 - 1979 ... Thanks Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is what happens to you and Jspin unfortunately It's true haha, we definitely mostly forecast with our emotions and not actual data & facts. JSpin especially, that dude is all emotion when it comes to weather, very little hard data ever posted. Its almost like we have him confused with someone else on here that's known to blame others for weather he doesn't want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 On 8/25/2017 at 6:12 AM, Damage In Tolland said: It won't. You can't keep this pattern for that long. Folks that enjoy this are going to pay the piper this winter..and those of that didn't want this..are going to suffer due to them Boy, that would be a year from hell for you: a cool, dry summer followed by a dud winter. You might want to fire up your spring '18 lawn thread now and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 16 hours ago, powderfreak said: It's true haha, we definitely mostly forecast with our emotions and not actual data & facts. JSpin especially, that dude is all emotion when it comes to weather, very little hard data ever posted. Its almost like we have him confused with someone else on here that's known to blame others for weather he doesn't want? Hey PF ... I bet you're impressed (with cautious optimism) over the 00z Euro ! What chaps Kevin's ass offers up grapple and flips to chutes in the elevations next weekend in that run. Cuts a pocket of 850 mb air right at 0 ...maaybe -1 C, under a decent mid level unseasonable cold pool/instability column. That would probably cat paw windshield at high elevations in the least. Yes, even at this time of year (well, Sept 2nd by then) that would be the case if those physical attributes transpire. Problem is... the run is probably buying into the model's tendency to 'spin' troughs as deeper than they will be in that particular sort of time range. But I gotta say... the GFS has actually flagged some early froster looks in some of its cycles as of late. The on-going incredible persistence with this pattern since April and still no signs of changing is bewildering - theoretically challenging...things don't typically lock this long. It's actually not an illogical reason to worry about longevity heading into the colder months.. But, for the time being, as I have intimate in the past, the former circumstance makes a non-protracted warm season an easy intuitive sort of guess this time. fun stuff - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 12z GFS with an early season frost threat at Day 5. The GGEM at 120 hours as well looks pretty chilly to start September. Even sub 540dm thicknesses tickling NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS with an early season frost threat at Day 5. The GGEM at 120 hours as well looks pretty chilly to start September. Even sub 540dm thicknesses tickling NNE. I have another date with Katahdin on Friday. CAR has rain and snow showers in the forecast for 5K. Prob not a Knife Edge day ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Deep toughing on the euro. That is a Fall look if I've ever seen one at hr 240. Including a possible srn Canada prairie snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 2 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said: I have another date with Katahdin on Friday. CAR has rain and snow showers in the forecast for 5K. Prob not a Knife Edge day ... lol Go big or go home. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Deep toughing on the euro. That is a Fall look if I've ever seen one at hr 240. Including a possible srn Canada prairie snow event. Snow can't stick in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Deep toughing on the euro. That is a Fall look if I've ever seen one at hr 240. Including a possible srn Canada prairie snow event. Here comes fall. BTV already forecasting highs in the 50s under partly sunny skies for Friday. Crisp airmass if we can stay below 60F with sunshine this time of year. Thursday Night....Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Friday...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 That day 10 stuff all will change as the Western Atlantic cane develops later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 I've noticed the last ...several years really, there is a tendency for the models to start jamming winter 'looking' patterns down our throats in extended tenors around the ends of Augusts.. I'm wondering why that is... You'd think we'd be snow storming by the Equinox given that... jesus. I don't think it's necessarily as red as the herring/skill pervades either ... This is a tenor that tends to go into September and Octobers, too...and we've had a disproportionate to climo, way way higher than normal shots at white in Octobers since 2000... It's strange and measurable - we seem to be getting these sloped flow regimes in early to mid autumns that really mimic January. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've noticed the last ...several years really, there is a tendency for the models to start jamming winter 'looking' patterns down our throats in extended tenors around the ends of Augusts.. I'm wondering why that is... You'd think we'd be snow storming by the Equinox given that... jesus. I don't think it's necessarily as red as the herring/skill pervades either ... This is a tenor that tends to go into September and Octobers, too...and we've had a disproportionate to climo, way way higher than normal shots at white in Octobers since 2000... It's strange and measurable - we seem to be getting these sloped flow regimes in early to mid autumns that really mimic January. Interesting. Then in January we get these regimes that resemble September/October, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 On 8/27/2017 at 4:13 PM, MaineJayhawk said: I have another date with Katahdin on Friday. CAR has rain and snow showers in the forecast for 5K. Prob not a Knife Edge day ... lol The rangers swear there were some rimed flakes mixing in Friday night up there. And given how dry it was and with lows dropping into the 30s, I wouldn't be shocked if there was some frozen spitting in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 As the owner of an insurance agency...this is one scary fugly map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: As the owner of an insurance agency...this is one scary fugly map: Ah hahaha.. I know - that trough is like taunting a piece of meat in front of a famished leopard - they should name that hurricane "Leopard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: The rangers swear there were some rimed flakes mixing in Friday night up there. And given how dry it was and with lows dropping into the 30s, I wouldn't be shocked if there was some frozen spitting in there. Not to be a dikkhead but ... Mount Washington averages a trace or more of snow every summer month and we're talking what ... a mere 2 K lower? - given this summers trough preponderance ...that really should happen sooner rather than later this year; I am not personally shocked to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to be a dikkhead but ... Mount Washington averages a trace or more of snow every summer month and we're talking what ... a mere 2 K lower? - given this summers trough preponderance ...that really should happen sooner rather than later this year; I am not personally shocked to hear that. I'm aware, and I'm not shocked either, just corroborating the CAR forecast with obs from this past weekend. Katahdin is almost exactly 1,000 feet lower (6,288 vs. 5,267). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 51 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: As the owner of an insurance agency...this is one scary fugly map: Euro and its EPS show an absolute classic SNE/ East coast cane hit setup. Some of the GEFS do too. All we can is hope they have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro and its EPS show an absolute classic SNE/ East coast cane hit setup. Some of the GEFS do too. All we can is hope they have a clue You need that trough to get negative tilt in time, especially to get a hit down here towards my area. Otherwise the hurricane will be carried OTS by a positively tilted trough which is probably 90% likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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