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Model Mehham


Ginx snewx

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Personally I'll take a warm September  and save cool and crisp for October.  

I don't even mind a warm October...though I tend to like some chill late in the month as we approach Halloween and perhaps the first flakes to give a small taste of winter....and maybe one good "cold shot across the bow" in early October or late September to remind us that things are changing. Otherwise I won't pout over 68-70F and sunny in mid-Oct. Sometimes those mostly cloudy and 46F days can get old when we have those colder October airmasses...not really useful for anything unless I'm outside around a firepit.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't even mind a warm October...though I tend to like some chill late in the month as we approach Halloween and perhaps the first flakes to give a small taste of winter....and maybe one good "cold shot across the bow" in early October or late September to remind us that things are changing. Otherwise I won't pout over 68-70F and sunny in mid-Oct. Sometimes those mostly cloudy and 46F days can get old when we have those colder October airmasses...not really useful for anything unless I'm outside around a firepit.

Light jacket when you tee off, shorts/t-shirt by the time you hit the turn.

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Looks like the models are trying to have their cake and eat it too wrt to the WAR idea ...

They interval that ..sure, but keep the heights lowered over SE Canada sort of pinched right over top while they do..  All the while the WAR does as its retrograde toward the U.S. but then as it continues to do so... it gets suppressed and mashed down. All we get for it is increased gradient over top and instead of event-less thunderstorms moving occasionally through they move really quickly through...  

Anything to keep Keven wrong - it's really nothing shy of astounding what the very planetary physics are doing to ensure that be the case ... 

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just peeked at MOS and noticed the highs have come down a few degrees for this week. CON was progged 87-89 most days and now it's down to 83-85. These past 2 days have been warm, but these low-mid 50s dews are nice.

MOS is working about as effectively as April around here. Or maybe our forecasts are about as effective as April. We keep saying 80 but we blow through that to like 85-86 with these big diurnal ranges.

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I almost wonder if the NAM physics aren't geared for the SSTs at this time of year - ...you'd think of course they'd have to be.  Buuut, it keeps doing this.. It's trying to wring in llv temperatures some 7 deg cooler than the oceanic surface temperature on an E or SE wind.  that's like physically impossible given the synoptics leading... I dunno.

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