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Model Mehham

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

More blues in the extended...meaning 12hr diff from 12z-00z. I guess we just need to see where that trough sets up. Could be those scenarios of 87/72 stuff...or could be the back and forth we have been having. 

This is the best summer since 2009...and maybe even 2000.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

i know it's the popular vamp to sing along with admonishing the CMC but that model absolutely nailed Emily ... All other models - clueless. 

It's like the CMC was that 8-year old that told the police and construction workers that in order to remove the semi-truck from being jammed up under the bridge ...you just need to let the air out of the tires. 

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why?

 He must be kidding, there is no way you can call a foliage season on July 31st.

I agree with you though, it has been a great summer in terms of comfort.  I have only had five or six air conditioning days at home. ( more than that in the car of course)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why?

I think he's being facetious.

 

We actually won't know much about foliage season until September...we want a lot of sunny days and crisp nights in September to get good foliage. Decent rainfall in the summer helps it a bit since you don't want stressed trees from drought losing their leaves prematurely but you want it to be dry and cool once we hit September/early October....the bright reds usually come from the sugars produced in the leaves which you'll want sunlight for...that's why a lot of cloudy/rainy days in September is bad.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure August will be more humid, but we are getting to the point where Tip starts seeing snow melting from windshields on cloudy, cold February days.

... that's doesn't start 'till next week ... 

Seriously ...August is one of those months that is the last - 

February IS in fact it's counter-point.   

It's just me, but I'm always frozen in a moment of rumination come early October thinking back to how much has changed between oh, ...August 20 and October 10th ... compared to say June 10 and July 30 ...or July 20 and August 30... etc etc...  Mainly, the speed of that change.  

It is for that reason that I privately think of the first transition days of the season as being the Ides of August.   That's usually about the time we get that first shot before the shot across the bow type air mass where you can feel the chill just aching to fill the air if it were not for the stubborn sun -   It's the under-the-radar, unheralded, and unsung beginning of the 'real' transition boundary.   

'Course, that's in general... we've had mid 90's heat waves in the first week of September - no doubt, 'after' that first air mass before the shot, that's before the shot across the bow.  Ha. 

probably only makes sense to me -

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... that's doesn't start 'till next week ... 

Seriously ...August is one of those months that is the last - 

February IS in fact it's counter-point.   

It's just me, but I'm always frozen in a moment of rumination come early October thinking back to how much has changed between oh, ...August 20 and October 10th ... compared to say June 10 and July 30 ...or July 20 and August 30... etc etc...  Mainly, the speed of that change.  

It is for that reason that I privately think of the first transition days of the season as being the Ides of August.   That's usually about the time we get that first shot before the shot across the bow type air mass where you can feel the chill just aching to fill the air if it were not for the stubborn sun -   It's the under-the-radar, unheralded, and unsung beginning of the 'real' transition boundary.   

'Course, that's in general... we've had mid 90's heat waves in the first week of September - no doubt, 'after' that first air mass before the shot, that's before the shot across the bow.  Ha. 

probably only makes sense to me -

To me, it's usually that style of airmass where it's something like 77-79F in the afternoon, and you all of the sudden lose 4-5F around 6pm even though the sun is still up...but it's dropped below that critical angle and the heat is now just radiating into the clear sky. You see the muted sun rays still hitting the tops of trees and rooftops but you can feel the heat escaping regardless. By 8pm it is mostly dark and you've dropped another 4-5F and by 10pm you might be threatening 60F.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To me, it's usually that style of airmass where it's something like 77-79F in the afternoon, and you all of the sudden lose 4-5F around 6pm even though the sun is still up...but it's dropped below that critical angle and the heat is now just radiating into the clear sky. You see the muted sun rays still hitting the tops of trees and rooftops but you can feel the heat escaping regardless. By 8pm it is mostly dark and you've dropped another 4-5F and by 10pm you might be threatening 60F.

 

yeah ...exactly actually ...  I'd also add that this particular year?   seems if persistence "winds" we shouldn't have to wait long - 

unless Kevina gets his/her way. ha ha ha-ha ha

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

To me, it's usually that style of airmass where it's something like 77-79F in the afternoon, and you all of the sudden lose 4-5F around 6pm even though the sun is still up...but it's dropped below that critical angle and the heat is now just radiating into the clear sky. You see the muted sun rays still hitting the tops of trees and rooftops but you can feel the heat escaping regardless. By 8pm it is mostly dark and you've dropped another 4-5F and by 10pm you might be threatening 60F.

That's what last night felt like.  We lost 21F in 4 hours and 19F in 3 hours during the evening.  Those are the fall-like airmasses and there have been a bunch of them in the past week to 10 days it seems.  The stuff where you've got shorts and a t-shirt on at 7pm but then you're closing windows and slider doors by 9-10pm

6pm...75F (full sunshine)

7pm...73F (still with sun out but growing shadows)

8pm...63F (sun goes behind Mansfield and the bottom drops out, losing 10F in an hour)

9pm...58F

10pm...54F

The night before was the same way... 72F at 6pm and then 52F at 10pm, 20F in 4 hours.  With low dews, as soon as the sun hits that critical level its off to the races as heat radiates out incredibly fast.

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 He must be kidding, there is no way you can call a foliage season on July 31st.

I agree with you though, it has been a great summer in terms of comfort.  I have only had five or six air conditioning days at home. ( more than that in the car of course)

Yes I'm joking and waiting for the Tolland foliage expert to call the season in 4-6 weeks.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Posted
6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

To me, it's usually that style of airmass where it's something like 77-79F in the afternoon, and you all of the sudden lose 4-5F around 6pm even though the sun is still up...but it's dropped below that critical angle and the heat is now just radiating into the clear sky. You see the muted sun rays still hitting the tops of trees and rooftops but you can feel the heat escaping regardless. By 8pm it is mostly dark and you've dropped another 4-5F and by 10pm you might be threatening 60F.

Sounds like last night 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Just waiting for that 5 week period from Conflicted In Tolland. It's the annual battle of the internal weenie. On one end, there's the warm and dewy side hoping for a Cat III...and then....a little burgeoning cold side that is trying to turn the warm outie into an innie. It's quite fascinating.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Just waiting for that 5 week period from Conflicted In Tolland. It's the annual battle of the internal weenie. On one end, there's the warm and dewy side hoping for a Cat III...and then....a little burgeoning cold side that is trying to turn the warm outie into an innie. It's quite fascinating.

Usually from about September 20th though late October you get Confused In Tolland...it keeps trending more and more toward cold during that period but you still see both sides. Usually by Halloween it is pure rooting for cold/snow though. The highs of 58F in early November at BDL quietly turn into 49F at ORH with a focus on the lows in the 30s rather than the highs. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

To me, it's usually that style of airmass where it's something like 77-79F in the afternoon, and you all of the sudden lose 4-5F around 6pm even though the sun is still up...but it's dropped below that critical angle and the heat is now just radiating into the clear sky. You see the muted sun rays still hitting the tops of trees and rooftops but you can feel the heat escaping regardless. By 8pm it is mostly dark and you've dropped another 4-5F and by 10pm you might be threatening 60F.

beware the lowering sun angle.

During the month of August, we'll lose about 75 minutes of day light.  tick, tick, tick.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

beware the lowering sun angle.

During the month of August, we'll lose about 75 minutes of day light.  tick, tick, tick.

Huh ... you really hate sun, huh - 

you've leveled like 10 posts in three weeks letting us know that the sun rises later and sets earlier every day after ~ June 21 ... got it!   Good to know - :)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's still fairly dark when I wake up at 5:30a now and I loathe it. I wish we could go through a normal winter with 9 UV indices and 16hrs of daylight.

Went for an early morning run and noticed the darkness too. I do like the early mornings. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Usually from about September 20th though late October you get Confused In Tolland...it keeps trending more and more toward cold during that period but you still see both sides. Usually by Halloween it is pure rooting for cold/snow though. The highs of 58F in early November at BDL quietly turn into 49F at ORH with a focus on the lows in the 30s rather than the highs. 

Cold fronts that were formally "mild downs" turn into temps "crashing through the 40s."

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