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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i think i'm the only person that drops by this social media outlet that still uses PCs and lap-tops... 

I'd be the 2nd, except we don't have a laptop.   ;)

heh...yeah. GFS has3 straight days of 50s here. We'll see, but I'll take the over on that. It's looking crappy either way though.

GFS is into its magical disappearing qpf mode, now that we're under 100 hr.  Showed about 2" for Mon-Tues yesterday, and 2/3" this morning.  Two days of 50s dz, just what the garden needs.   :axe:

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On ‎7‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 8:29 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

The persistence of this pattern,.. which locked in circa mid spring and is unrelenting since, is nothing shy of staggering. 

We still live under a fluid medium, supposedly one that is in part guided along by fractal permutation - yet, this has proven immovable.  It is as though some great force pinned the trough axis in place, and then let the rest of the atmosphere carry on...  as a result, it's pivoting around and island of disappointing trough node. 

But it has been redeeming in a couple of ways...obviously first and foremost we have not had to deal with as much heat this go of summer ...thus far.  But, we seem to carrying on with a positive anomaly thunderstorm days.  Whether they have been severe ...or ultimately satisfying for whatever regard aside, we have had no shortage of crispy towering CB's on horizons and/or the transient excitement of some wind, heavy rain and loud thunder. 

Otherwise, it's like the planet has an agenda NOT to bring heat into the NE and its an obsessive angry beady-eyed OCD too.  Frankly, some variation of this has happened across the last three summer - not so much the convective behavior, ..or the exact flow structure of the comparative patterns, either.   But, the stop heat at least excuse imagined, as an emergent property of the maelstrom, has succeeded now for three years and counting.  Personal druthers aside ... I find that interestingly banal.  It's boring and non-inventive, and is really concealing an angry atmosphere and planet.  Ever since the block-buster historic February snows of 2015 ...the atmosphere has been locked in mute summer, struggled winter appeal. Flat-lined... It's like a "negative event" anomaly. 

There have been point to point ..less that regional scale interesting things from time to time.  Obviously this isn't carrying on in a vacuum either. But, extended heat wave torridity ...gone.  Big winters.... gone...

I thought last summer was pretty hot....maybe I'm wrong..

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Last summer was hot.  I think BDL had like 17 days of 90+ in just July alone.  Compared to like 3 this year or something like that.

5 90+ this month, but if you want to make the cold sound really impressive BDL has had only 2 days of >90F, but 3 days of <70F (exactly 3 days of highs of 90F).

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought last summer was pretty hot....maybe I'm wrong..

It was ...relative to climo ...and perhaps to good deal by experience. 

However, it "could have been" a LOT hotter...  We kept seeing a bizarre sort of 'split' between the 500 and 700 mb levels, where the 500 would ridge in the east from time to time ..but for some reason the 700 mb was out of phase.  That lower level tended to be NW flow regimes while it was W or even WSW aloft. 

It's one reason (among others probably) why it was so dry because that is an inherently stable sounding regime.. But, it kept splicing the heat SW of us before it could get in. We ended up above normal but following routinely shy of what the 500 mb height evolution would suggest we should.   Last summer was very idiosyncratic in how it shunted the heat SW of us while having a look of a warm pattern.  

This year, it's really more about just having the deep layer tropospheric circulation medium walling off our region from the benefits of global warming...ha... kidding there of course .

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought last summer was pretty hot....maybe I'm wrong..

Probably depends on one's location.  JJA 3-month average at my place was 0.10F above my 19-year avg.  (Only 2011, BN by 0.08F, is closer to the average.)  Of course, the Farmington co-op's average for those 19 years is 0.62F higher than their average for 1981-10, so I'm measuring against an elevated platform.

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Who is Ben Noll?

Cherry picked product ...  It's specialization is eliding a number of aspects, but one in particular: that "painting" of the synoptic state is a snap-shot that doesn't pay necessary homage to the fact that a near-by trough axis in the (most important) mid-level flow structure still presses S out of central eastern Canada.  That 'appeal' as shown above is thus highly vulnerable if the next frame were available, not to mention suspect as not occurring for more reasons than the usual uncertainty at uselessly long lead modeling.

Why don't we first discuss how that look has been on every D10 the entire summer and has always ended up with another OV amplitude enough to do the opposite, smash heat south. Actually ...heh, for that matter, first consider it's day-10-ness ...duh.  And that the preceding days were spent in trough anomaly all over the E.

There may in fact be reasons to assess warmth out there? way out there..But, that above was bad choice of products to us - what? just because it's "pretty" and looks hot. 

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Of course ... we probably are going be rather torrid this incoming week ...relative to present if not outrightly so -

The MOS products I've been seeing have been fairly routinely throwing up > 85 highs with DPs well into the 60s.  Then operationally, models have > 12 C, 850 MB air much of the time (and no countermanding onshore flow structures to the PP)

That's probably all code for, not exactly cool. 

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I will agree though that that image looks like the best cold centered west of us. idk about high dews, but maybe slow or stalling cold fropas with decent rain chances and sloppy second cool airmasses? That's 2 weeks out though so who knows. Maybe the trough axis will verify more over us as has been the theme.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I will agree though that that image looks like the best cold centered west of us. idk about high dews, but maybe slow or stalling cold fropas with decent rain chances and sloppy second cool airmasses? That's 2 weeks out though so who knows. Maybe the trough axis will verify more over us as has been the theme.

Right.. it's not an out and out hot pattern. It is showing the WAR building west onto the east coast . Kind of like this week while we dew and get near 90, they get big cool shot out west and that front struggles to get thru EC

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EC trended with lower heights again in the extended. 

Yeah...more of the same. I won't believe prolonged heat until we get it inside 5 days. This week looks like typical summer heat. Upper 80s to near 90 with dews varying in the 60s. Warm and somewhat humid, but nothing to Gronk spike about. Just hand the ball over to the ref like you've been there before like Barry Sanders.

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So...just painting with a very broad brush  as far as potential tropical weather goes,  For at least  August, wouldn't this favor any disturbances being steered move WNW towards the US verses out to sea?  Perhaps towards the Gulf and then coming northeast bound around the Bermuda high?   

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