Model Mehham

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What were all the ASOS stations for highs and lows that Scooter and mets say we should use and not private stations?

Why would BDL represent you? Enjoy the COC.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why would BDL represent you? Enjoy the COC.

But our dews don't represent us?

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What were all the ASOS stations for highs and lows that Scooter and mets say we should use and not private stations?

During that stretch last week BDL was 80/75/79/80.

Thats the warmest place in SNE.  

Its ok, not every cool shot is turning into low to mid-80s ;).

[powderfreak]

Kev's favorite winter ASOS had a brutally hot end of June.  Even one day of 60s.  

ORH from the 24th through the 30th for highs:

80/78/74/69/72/73/82

[Ginx snewx]

Next ten days no 90s, summer as we like it

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like until we get this heat ridge in the Plains moved, we'll be prone to getting these shots of cooler air that look better as we get closer to T=0.  You can see signs of it on the ensembles. Sure the muted out ensemble mean may have 564+ thickness, but the 500mb pattern shows a trough right over the northeast. That's usually a sign of at least potential shots of cooler air, despite the muted out ensemble mean.

It would be illogical to argue against that 'feeling' 

All evidence heretofore including trends do not really support an alternate thinking ... to put it kindly.   I was amazed at the 00z GEFS and frankly the 12z was not much different.  Other than ever so very subtle difference... the 500 mb geopotenial mean charts mimic the previous interval on every single chart from about 96 hours right out to the end of the run... some 15 days from now.  Identical.

I don't think I've ever seen a "pattern" so unperturbed in my time on this planet as a learned Meteorologist. That's ... incredible.  ... I mean getting out to D10 and beyond with 0 modulation in any mass-field direction is exceptionally rare, and this is like even more locked in than that...  I mean, at some point we have to question it - I think.  Because R-waves are in motion  - or perhaps the GEFs physics never got that memo?  haha.   Take the D6 and D15 charts and tell them apart would you - not really.. 

At least the EPS shows some modulation of "any kind" ... but it's differences spanning the run don't really amount to much meaningfully, either.  It's an anchored height node out west that is nothing shy of uncanny.  It's no like it pulses...wobbles east and come back west... build and decays... None of that ... it's like why run any model until about the 15th of the month - pointless if they are never going to show difference.  Fascinating..

You can bet dimes to donuts this won't be the case this winter...

 

[powderfreak]

The ORH obs from today are what dreams are made of for perfect outdoor weather.

High of 80F but 6 hours of temps between 77-79F with dews of 44-47F this afternoon.

If that's not the definition of Chamber weather, I don't know what is.

Up this way had a similar high of 81F and the sun was plenty hot for a late afternoon swim in the chilly river waters. 

Looks like BML wins the diurnal change award today, with a high of 83F off a low of 43F.

[78Blizzard]

Meanwhile, Greenland just set the record for coldest July temperature ever reported in the Northern Hemisphere at -33C.

Climate experts immediately responded to the record cold by saying Greenland is melting faster than expected at -33C.

Almost all of Greenland’s surface is gaining ice.

https://realclimatescience.com/2017/07/latest-from-the-greenland-meltdown/

 

 

[dendrite]

Meh...the interior is cold there over the cap. That's nothing new. A lot of those ice cap stations are relatively new so the record period has a small sample size. You can gain snow and ice in a warming climate...it's still well below freezing there.

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, MetHerb said:

I don't have my data in front of me but I've put up negative departures several of the past few days, mostly on the minimums.  Everyone I've talked to is loving this weather and is out doing things in it.  They are not waiting for more humid weather.  It's perfect weather to have warm days and lows in the 50s.

FWIW, my 30+ year climate normal for 7/5 is 80/58.  My lows have been between 50 and 54.  I reach my peak on 7/23 with 81/59 but I believe that some places, particularly up north with hit theirs shortly.  I know someone posted a chart at some point with those dates in the past.

Exactly 4F milder than at my place, for both max and min.  Only working on year 20 so my averages change with each day entered.  Currently my warmest day is 7/29 with 76.8/55.2.  However, there are 12 days which all round up to 77/55, so a more useful way (to me, anyway) to describe peak-of-summer is to include all consecutive days within 1.0F of the warmest.  That stretch currently runs 7/10 thru 8/8, a 30-day plateau.  Using the same method, winter's valley is far more brief, a 9-day run 1/18-26, with 1/21 coldest at 23.8/1.4.  The far more extensive data from the Farmington co-op shows a distinct late Jan bump followed by a slight retreat into Feb.  It's a small bump on the full record, 1893 on, with the average rising only 0.2F from the Jan bottom of 15.2 on the 17th, then going to a second low of 15.1 on Feb. 4, 18 days later.  The 1971-2000 period shows a more significant "January thaw", with average temp sinking to 11.6 on 1/16 before climbing to 14.2 on the 30th.  They then slide back to 13.1 on 2/5 before beginning the steady climb out of winter. 

[Brewbeer]

12 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Meanwhile, Greenland just set the record for coldest July temperature ever reported in the Northern Hemisphere at -33C.

Climate experts immediately responded to the record cold by saying Greenland is melting faster than expected at -33C.

Almost all of Greenland’s surface is gaining ice.

https://realclimatescience.com/2017/07/latest-from-the-greenland-meltdown/

 

 

lol at "realclimatescience.com"

"fakeclimatescience.com" would be a more accurate description of what that website is pushing.

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But our dews don't represent us?

Like my frost-pocket minima, they represent our respective microclimates but don't offer good portrayals of the overall airmasses.

[CapturedNature]

19 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Exactly 4F milder than at my place, for both max and min.  Only working on year 20 so my averages change with each day entered.  Currently my warmest day is 7/29 with 76.8/55.2.  However, there are 12 days which all round up to 77/55, so a more useful way (to me, anyway) to describe peak-of-summer is to include all consecutive days within 1.0F of the warmest.  That stretch currently runs 7/10 thru 8/8, a 30-day plateau.  Using the same method, winter's valley is far more brief, a 9-day run 1/18-26, with 1/21 coldest at 23.8/1.4.  The far more extensive data from the Farmington co-op shows a distinct late Jan bump followed by a slight retreat into Feb.  It's a small bump on the full record, 1893 on, with the average rising only 0.2F from the Jan bottom of 15.2 on the 17th, then going to a second low of 15.1 on Feb. 4, 18 days later.  The 1971-2000 period shows a more significant "January thaw", with average temp sinking to 11.6 on 1/16 before climbing to 14.2 on the 30th.  They then slide back to 13.1 on 2/5 before beginning the steady climb out of winter. 

I wish we had the opposite and had a late July "cool down"...lol.

I have an 18 day plateau each July but if I look at the "raw" averages of given days, there is a peak around 7/19 and 8/4 of 84°.  Most days in-between are around 81°.

Your climate sounds great to me but I'm also glad I'm not in the valley where it averages 3-4° warmer than me.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I wish we had the opposite and had a late July "cool down"...lol.

That's an interesting thought haha.  The summer equivalent to the mid-winter thaw doesn't seem as noticeable.  

However summer temps are far less variable than they are in say January where it can range from -20F to 60F even within a couple days given the set up.  Christmas Eve 2015 when it was 70F up here with thunderstorms is the July equivalent of like 130F.  Never gonna happen.

It would be like in July if it could range from 20F to 100F depending on the pattern lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan has 83-87 everyday next week. Where's the cool and BN that was discussed ?

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan has 83-87 everyday next week. Where's the cool and BN that was discussed ?

Normal is what 85F or maybe 86F next week?

Yesterday at BDL was 86/58 and was -1 for the day.

That's far from a torch at BDL in mid-July if that's what you are trying to say.

75-82F for Tolland next week?  Sounds perfect actually.

[CapturedNature]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Normal is what 85F or maybe 86F next week?

Yesterday at BDL was 86/58 and was -1 for the day.

That's far from a torch at BDL in mid-July if that's what you are trying to say.

75-82F for Tolland probably.

 

85° is the normal max next week at BDL so 83-87 is spot on normal.  He's also got 60-64 for the min and 62-63° is the average so it's either going to wind up spot on normal or slightly below.  62° at BDL would keep the hills in the 50s at night which is perfect for sleeping and early evening activities outside.

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

85° is the normal max next week at BDL so 83-87 is spot on normal.  He's also got 60-64 for the min and 62-63° is the average so it's either going to wind up spot on normal or slightly below.  62° at BDL would keep the hills in the 50s at night which is perfect for sleeping and early evening activities outside.

I feel like countering Kev makes me seem like this huge cold mongerer, or reverse anti-SAD or whatever Tip talks about, but I do enjoy just normal summer weather.  I also like facts and 83-87F for a week in mid-summer at the warmest place in New England doesn't strike me as all that hot knowing the vast majority of folks will realize temps cooler than that.  

Sort of like highs 75-83F for most of us on the board with some mid-80s at the warmest spots, pretty spot on normal or within a degree or two either side depending on the day.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Normal is what 85F or maybe 86F next week?

Yesterday at BDL was 86/58 and was -1 for the day.

That's far from a torch at BDL in mid-July if that's what you are trying to say.

75-82F for Tolland next week?  Sounds perfect actually.

Again you missed the point . You guys keep talking about cool and BN summer . We haven't had that and next week has trended warmer but it's not being admitted 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Again you missed the point . You guys keep talking about cool and BN summer . We haven't had that and next week has trended warmer but it's not being admitted 

Next week has definitely ticked up a bit temp wise.  Not sure about humidity but could be a few A/C days for sure. 

[ineedsnow]

Just looked at the 18z gefs... some of the individual members bring a cane up the coast in two weeks.. If only it could work out just one time just something to weenie out on when things are boring....    Noticed the gfs is pretty far north with the rain tonight and tomorrow!!!!

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Again you missed the point . You guys keep talking about cool and BN summer . We haven't had that and next week has trended warmer but it's not being admitted 

Ahhh ok it's trended warmer.  I haven't looked to be honest but I'll take your word for it.

You kept mentioning 70s like it was impossible and hadn't been done lately.

June was solidly below normal here with the 3 local sites east of the Greens at -1 to -2.  We'll see where July takes us but the first 5 days are -2.1.  Long way to go and could easily get very hot.  

But you aren't going to convince me we haven't had any BN weather with those numbers.

It has been a very enjoyable summer so far.  Enjoy your 75-82F next week at home.  Uninstall and let the windows open up and the breeze through while BDL is 84-85F.

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ahhh ok it's trended warmer.  I haven't looked to be honest but I'll take your word for it.

You kept mentioning 70s like it was impossible and hadn't been done lately.

June was solidly below normal here with the 3 local sites east of the Greens at -1 to -2.  We'll see where July takes us but the first 5 days are -2.1.  Long way to go and could easily get very hot.  

But you aren't going to convince me we haven't had any BN weather with those numbers.

It has been a very enjoyable summer so far.  Enjoy your 75-82F next week at home.  Uninstall and let the windows open up and the breeze through while BDL is 84-85F.

 

It was in the 70s all day today.  My pool dropped 6 degrees in 2 days. First week of July, He can spin it but his HHH end of June first week of July did not materialize.  We are in a repetitive pattern with a normal temp low dew non HHH majority of days for the foreseeable future.

[moneypitmike]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was in the 70s all day today.  My pool dropped 6 degrees in 2 days. First week of July, He can spin it but his HHH end of June first week of July did not materialize.  We are in a repetitive pattern with a normal temp low dew non HHH majority of days for the foreseeable future.

 

I managed to hit 80 or higher 6 times in the past month, 3 of those were the 3 hot days from June 11-13 when I went 86, 88, 85..  I had 4 days in the past month where I came in shy of 70*.

[CapturedNature]

10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Again you missed the point . You guys keep talking about cool and BN summer . We haven't had that and next week has trended warmer but it's not being admitted 

Most of the posts I see are about how great the weather is and it is because it hasn't been humid for the most part.  I don't see talk of it being cool but it has been below normal.  June is a summer month and it was solidly below normal - ranked #7 coolest for me since 1985.  May, although not a summer month was also #7 coolest.  4 of the past 7 days were below normal.  Are we supposed to ignore that and say it's been normal? 

If I look at the GEFS for one model, it looks pretty normal to me and if the humidity is down, that might allow the mins to go below normal continuing the overall trend:

http://www.meteoguru.com/en/pro/ensembles/?latlon=41.99,-72.31

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would not mind a week of 85-90F here.   The pool is cooling again

Doesnt look to be in the cards for a while though.  Maybe we get a day of 85 in the next 7 here, but prob not more than that.

[dendrite]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Again you missed the point . You guys keep talking about cool and BN summer . We haven't had that and next week has trended warmer but it's not being admitted 

Fleeting shots of warmth. It's been a benign, near normal pattern which I know is devastating for Mr. Damage himself.

[tamarack]

22 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That's an interesting thought haha.  The summer equivalent to the mid-winter thaw doesn't seem as noticeable.  

However summer temps are far less variable than they are in say January where it can range from -20F to 60F even within a couple days given the set up.  Christmas Eve 2015 when it was 70F up here with thunderstorms is the July equivalent of like 130F.  Never gonna happen.

It would be like in July if it could range from 20F to 100F depending on the pattern lol.

My July cooldown comes 7th-12th, when my non-smoothed averages drop about 3F from the heat of end-of-June, then climb back to enter the long plateau.  And while January has the widest variations on average of any month, March 2012 takes the prize for greatest span of any individual month, touching -10 during the first week then 80 at the top of the record-crushing heat wave.  That 90F difference even exceeds anything from the far more variable wx in Fort Kent, where my greatest was 87F (-47/40) in January of 1979.  That month did feature the most day to day variability I ever expect in one month.  In 10 years there I saw 5 days in January that failed to get down to 32 or below; all occurred in 1979.  That month also had my coldest temp, tied for 2nd coldest (-42) plus the 5th coldest (-39).  Several of the above-32 minima came on while PWM was getting a 6.6" snowfall, and that -47 was reached while PWM was in the midst of its #2 storm, 27.1".

Your climate sounds great to me but I'm also glad I'm not in the valley where it averages 3-4° warmer than me.

Lots of cool mornings in summer - average low for July is 54.3 - and foothills CAD in winter.  Except for upslope, which is non-existent here, I'm in a good spot considering the modest (390') elevation.  However, the foothills sweet spot for snow, at least among co-op sites, is 25 miles to my SW in Hartford, at 700'.  Their records date back to May 1, 1998; mine start the 17th of that month, making comparisons useful.  They average 106" per season to my 89" (Farmington at 480' averaged 91" for those same 19 seasons.)  Hartford's average for peak pack is 34" to my 28, and this past winter they topped out at 62" while my 47" fell 2" short of 2/09.  It helped that they got 26"/11" from Feb's final 2 snows while I had to "settle" for 21"/6".     However, we're virtually identical in SDDs (they lead, 1,723 to 1,715), meaning my place has slightly better retention, probably because my lawn/garden opening is smaller.  Never seen the Hartford co-op setup, however, so that's just a guess.

[CapturedNature]

58 minutes ago, tamarack said:

 However, the foothills sweet spot for snow, at least among co-op sites, is 25 miles to my SW in Hartford, at 700'.  Their records date back to May 1, 1998; mine start the 17th of that month, making comparisons useful.  They average 106" per season to my 89" (Farmington at 480' averaged 91" for those same 19 seasons.)  Hartford's average for peak pack is 34" to my 28, and this past winter they topped out at 62" while my 47" fell 2" short of 2/09.  It helped that they got 26"/11" from Feb's final 2 snows while I had to "settle" for 21"/6".     However, we're virtually identical in SDDs (they lead, 1,723 to 1,715), meaning my place has slightly better retention, probably because my lawn/garden opening is smaller.  Never seen the Hartford co-op setup, however, so that's just a guess.

I think this page has a picture of the guys yard:

http://hartfordmewx.info/stationbio.html

7/2 and 7/12 average lower than days around them but it's really not a period of "cooler" weather like January.

Micro climates can be really neat.  I've long known about places that are the cold hollows or places that keep snow the longest and they are often not the same places.  I have a pretty good spot which is a happy medium of the two.  We just bought some land in another part of town mostly for the maple trees but we might build there...I just need to make sure I'm not losing anything.

[Typhoon Tip]

we're just in an unusually pattern across the Canadian shield and adjacent NW Atlantic Basic extending up into the NAO domain space.  

Both unusual for the pattern, but... it's longevity is also extending beyond normal residence for in situ circulation types.  It's been going on since April really ...with a couple few periods here in there where it relaxes, but only before rushing to get back to that same basal flow structure at least excuse imagined.  

What it is is a huge broad trough when tamping down all the little embedded transient ridge ripples/nodes that distract from seeing it more readily.  In fact you could argue the NE Pacific is involved, too...  What is identifiable through the normal nebular summer jet patterning is ... on averages, a NW flow through Canada that keeps our region of the continent pretty safe from big heat/torridity.  Here we are today ...with a flat winter wave really - ..i mean it's like a doing it "to" summer enthusiasts at this point.. ha.  Both the Euro and GFS operationals drilling a 534 DM trough core through middle Ontario is gotten just a weeee bit criminal.

Anyway, at this point I'm not feeling confident anything will likely change through the end of summer. Looks like a temperate muted affair of it this go.  

As an after thought it seems the last two to three years have gone out of the way to mute both seasons and keep things mundane interesting.