Model Mehham

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

What do your 2m temps show with this? lol

Obviously I know this is out in d10 fantasy land, but it does look like we warm toward that period.

 

lol day 10, yea I'll take the under on 95 degrees

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

lol day 10, yea I'll take the under on 95 degrees

So will I. But 18C would do it. I think the GFS is getting 15-16C up here now. Still lalaland, but odds are increasing for a hot couple of days next weekend with that trough carving into the west. Plenty of time for our Labrador current to muck it up. 

[jbenedet]

Without trying to spark a huge climate change debate, I am beginning to think we are at a point where we need to start thinking about these trends and how it may already be influencing our climate. The gulf of ME is the fastest warming major body of water on the planet. As such, historical analogs may be losing some utililty.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So will I. But 18C would do it. I think the GFS is getting 15-16C up here now. Still lalaland, but odds are increasing for a hot couple of days next weekend with that trough carving into the west. Plenty of time for our Labrador current to muck it up. 

12 Z euro says 18 c  80- 85 for me 11 for you 55-65

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Without trying to spark a huge climate change debate, I am beginning to think we are at a point where we need to start thinking about these trends and how it may already be influencing our climate. The gulf of ME is the fastest warming major body of water on the planet. As such, historical analogs may be losing some utililty.

It's not going to change a 45F misery mist pattern into a 70F pattern if that's what you are implying. As long as the specific heat of water is 4X greater than air, then the changes will be negligible to us in terms of sensible wx.

[jbenedet]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not going to change a 45F misery mist pattern into a 70F pattern if that's what you are implying. As long as the specific heat of water is 4X greater than air, then the changes will be negligible to us in terms of sensible wx.

I'm not implying that at all. We could see backdooring events weaken in magnitude and duration however...

[CoastalWx]

So maybe instead of 45 and drizzle it's 47 and drizzle. Break out the Speedos.

[forkyfork]

haha

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like when we get a ridiculous torch in April or early May, we often never get warmer again the whole summer. Like 2009, 2001, and 1976. Probably just anecdotel, but I'm always rooting more to wait until June.

My highest temp in 2004 was in May.  In 2009 it was April 29 and 2nd highest was May 21.  Soon after, the incessant rains began.  In 2010, May 25 tied about 5 other days for the year's warmest.  We generally don't see leaf-out reach 50% until after May 20, and things warm more quickly in the absence of full shade and transpiration.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

haha

Looks like back door potential on the surface. 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like back door potential on the surface. 

Congrats airplanes?

[forkyfork]

yeah let's look for whatever cold silver linings we can

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

yeah let's look for whatever cold silver linings we can

Yeah lets just ignore model output and show 5h levels, besides its hot in NJ, just stay in your forum with your crap

[forkyfork]

there's support for an eastern ridge to end the month. details TBD. sorry you don't like it

[dendrite]

Yeah...definite BD threat that run. Not on the previous two though. Glad to see the real Ginxy back defending all things cold.

[ORH_wxman]

Way too much WNW flow at H5 up north for us to like that for heat here...need to get it back more WSW.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...definite BD threat that run. Not on the previous two though. Glad to see the real Ginxy back defending all things cold.

Meh you guys mock people for day 10 cold threats and then post stuff like this in warm season, can't make it up. It will change a dozen times between now and then,defending nothing other than foolish 5h plots while ignoring all other levels. With a met tag none the less. Glad I don't live in a NJ city though for a bunch of reasons 

[jbenedet]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats airplanes?

 

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's a heat map for property tax rates.

[dendrite]

57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meh you guys mock people for day 10 cold threats and then post stuff like this in warm season, can't make it up. It will change a dozen times between now and then,defending nothing other than foolish 5h plots while ignoring all other levels. With a met tag none the less. Glad I don't live in a NJ city though for a bunch of reasons 

I know the verification scores for d10 op runs. I was just confused with your reply to me earlier today. Obviously I didn't install for a d10 run with 18C 850s, but I'm wondering how those runs didn't look 90+...unless you're referring to your localized cool spot near the water. It's all moot anyway. Forky will be 93F and it will be 53F here.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

haha

 

What's funny about that panel is that the surface depiction for that same time implies about 54 F at NE Mass, with a BD jammed up under those heights clear to HFD.  Seeing as we're talking hypotheticals (D10 Euro) ...we should point out for folks that there is a mega high pressing ESE through Ontario as that big mid and u/a 'magma chamber' bubbles it's way west through the EC...such that any BD would almost have to cut and gash its way SW - it's really like this run has an agenda to bring a hot pattern to everywhere except the bottom couple hundred MBs

[Typhoon Tip]

The GOM warming isn't trivial though.   

Will may be right in concept .. however, raising the SST by any amount has an impact on Delta(H) exchange rates, which is in part dependent on the air's heat sink in the total coupled system. 

Because of that, as the SSTs rise, the effectiveness on "chilling" the air mass does decline.  However, ...if a near-by over land, early season air mass is very dry at 90 F (not atypical for early season warmth in the NE U.S.) and then we're talking about the difference between 45 and 41 F early spring SST's, the idea of that being more than negligible strains believability at bit.  

There is also evidence/papers out there (refereed) that discuss evidences in deep sea biota that suggest the Lab. Current has been steadily weakening over the last 100 years.  Combining that with, or removing it, as part of GW is a monstrous task.. Nonetheless, if that trend continues decade after decade like that ...eventually the southern nose/termination waters may start to reflect that change - who knows if we are there, or if this is just some temporary thing. 

By the way , there is a ST low designated 1,000 or so naut mi WSW of the Azores if anyone is interested - pretty fantastic for this time of year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

In any event.... I guess there's some boredom kicking in to get the stream of conjecture flowing down the pathways of willy nilly warmth on a D10 anything.. haha. 

Ah, ... long summer in route... 

I will say that the idea of a warm end of the month isn't new in what's believable in the dying teleconnector correlations, and/or the general tempos of the long lead individual depictions and so forth. 

Magnitude and timing is up in the air. 

It could also be one of those things that plagues the D9 charts until it finally verifies around the time the kids go back to school - one of THOSE summers. heh.  

However, both recent run ins with 80+ weather did start out as ridge signals much like this... so, perhaps seasonal trends offers some limited confidence.   

[jbenedet]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GOM warming isn't trivial though.   

Will may be right in concept .. however, raising the SST by any amount has an impact on Delta(H) exchange rates, which is in part dependent on the air's heat sink in the total coupled system. 

Because of that, as the SSTs rise, the effectiveness on "chilling" the air mass does decline.  However, ...if a near-by over land, early season air mass is very dry at 90 F (not atypical for early season warmth in the NE U.S.) and then we're talking about the difference between 45 and 41 F early spring SST's, the idea of that being more than negligible strains believability at bit.  

There is also evidence/papers out there (refereed) that discuss evidences in deep sea biota that suggest the Lab. Current has been steadily weakening over the last 100 years.  Combining that with, or removing it, as part of GW is a monstrous task.. Nonetheless, if that trend continues decade after decade like that ...eventually the southern nose/termination waters may start to reflect that change - who knows if we are there, or if this is just some temporary thing. 

By the way , there is a ST low designated 1,000 or so naut mi WSW of the Azores if anyone is interested - pretty fantastic for this time of year. 

Good post Tip. I agree. 

I was even thinking that to get a *rough* back of the envelope idea as to how this may impact sensible weather, perhaps one could shift a given coastal location south X miles to make up for the 4F temperature differential in SST. For example 4F SST increase would be like shifting Portland ME, to cape cod, or Boston to Sandy Hook NJ. 

[CoastalWx]

I'll take a few ticks higher for better delta Ts in winter for OE.  

[Damage In Tolland]

There seems to be a lot of folks that rely on 2m maps and think those are what you forecast with?

[Ginx snewx]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There seems to be a lot of folks that rely on 2m maps and think those are what you forecast with?

There seems to be a lot of Mets who understand physical process to me.

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, tamarack said:

My highest temp in 2004 was in May.  In 2009 it was April 29 and 2nd highest was May 21.  Soon after, the incessant rains began.  In 2010, May 25 tied about 5 other days for the year's warmest.  We generally don't see leaf-out reach 50% until after May 20, and things warm more quickly in the absence of full shade and transpiration.

I was thinking that reading your post.....it's crazy what even green up can do to temps.  Maximize the H85 temps before that.  

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was thinking that reading your post.....it's crazy what even green up can do to temps.  Maximize the H85 temps before that.  

One of the reasons that summer is better than spring around here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Man, for warm weather enthusiasts that D 8 through 10 evolution of the operational Euro from 00z last night is superb eye-candy. 

Hate to say ...but again, as I mentioned yesterday (and it persists) the signal is there for a warming trend as we close out the month.

Obviously these individual runs of x-y-z model for a-b-c specifics beyond D5 or 6 should strain believability .. to put it nicely..  Having said that, every member of the GEFS and the blend therefrom are/is flagging a -PNAP configuration to the flow ... taking hold post the 27th or so.  It'll be interesting to see if that evolves for something we haven't seen since... gosh, I wanna say 2009? and that's bona fide early season big heat.  ... 

[Whineminster]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, for warm weather enthusiasts that D 8 through 10 evolution of the operational Euro from 00z last night is superb eye-candy. 

Hate to say ...but again, as I mentioned yesterday (and it persists) the signal is there for a warming trend as we close out the month.

Obviously these individual runs of x-y-z model for a-b-c specifics beyond D5 or 6 should strain believability .. to put it nicely..  Having said that, every member of the GEFS and the blend therefrom are/is flagging a -PNAP configuration to the flow ... taking hold post the 27th or so.  It'll be interesting to see if that evolves for something we haven't seen since... gosh, I wanna say 2009? and that's bona fide early season big heat.  ... 

looks poopy until then though, this weekend is a dud.