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Model Mehham

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe 51 perturbations vs 1?

...true, but ...  using the EPS right now "seems" like eliding. 

That aside, there is a real trend that's been evolving to generate a heat departure period, roughly from the end of the month through the first week of July.  We just don't know the extent of that.  The last heat wave began in the runs with this sort of arguable ridge signal - just to keep that in mind.    

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

july is always supposed to be above normal?

Need a refresher on global warming? 

Ha, it's been below normal in recent months, and no one expects it to be normal or below all the time.  I do agree some above normal warm in mid-summer month is seasons in seasons.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I guess ...if you buy it. 

The GEFs seem to be engineering an opposing look there, that is perhaps merely being obscured by having heights sort of on the high side everywhere.   But, structurally every time a few cycles struggle to edge the pattern more WAR-dominated ... some run comes out like this 12z GFS/operational that locks a 600 dm height monolith out west  ...almost like it strained to lift the barbell for two days, only to let fall by collapsing the flow in a single run back to west-is-best for heat.   

If that construct evolves no more summer...  It's like early autumn from here on out.  

Can't say from a sensible impact point of view that would be all that bad.

It also seems y'all go by the Euro camp and any derivatives almost entirely though - so..

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a heat dome developing out in the Plains later in the 11-15 day. Glad we don't live there.

If we can ditch the nagging low heights overhead we'd be primed for a nice EML around 240 hours. Just in time for Winni to be slammed for the 4th week.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

How come we never get heat domes? It seems like they always hit the midwest and southwest, maybe the southeast too. I want some dome. 

Ooh ooh, let me ... 

:) 

won't speak for Scott, but, there are two schools here.   One is reality, the other is the model's en masse collective virtual reality.  

Ideally, we want the latter to be in the 100th percentile as far as depicting where the weather pattern will go and ultimately verify... But the present state of the technology in modeling is ... oh say the 90th percentile for D1 and 70 for Day 3 and 55 for Day 5 ...and on and so on down to meaningless D 9 Euro snow bomb coastal histrionics that we cherry pick data to support actually happening....  

Why that is important is because... we do sometimes get 'heat domes' back east, but, the models will tend to bias toward what is called the 'Perennial North American Pattern' ...ever more so the deeper out in time is the view.   By D11 - 15?   heh...  The models may error there, to put it nicely.  But "if" an d when destiny has a flat ridge in the east (or a ridge event that is weak) ... there is little hope the models won't mute that out of existence. 

But, what is the PNAP pattern and why? 

It's there because of the summation of mountain torque over western N/America...with the ambient Pacific westerlies impinging upon the elevations of the Rockies (Canadian all the way down to Mexico).  In the absence of a transient pattern forcing (which are short term modulations that enhance the flow structures and orientations) the rising motion over the Rockies will tend to bend to the left because of the Coriolis Force... that imparts a natural "bulge" in the planetary wave signature over the western part of the continent. 

In simple terms...even without a ridge in the west, and a trough in the east, any flow over the planet's surface that is forced up and over the N-S oriented mountain chain is going to curve up and then back down to the N than S...  That really is the base-line perennial north-American pattern orientation.  Sometimes (then) forces countermand that and you end up with troughing in the west and ridging in the east, but because of that base line planetary forcing, it's just easier for the pattern to support what you are observing - and, when/if ridges are supported by the pattern out west, they actually get a positive feed-back. 

It's like we have a disadvantage to jumping high genetically back east...   We can do it, but we just have to work a bit harder.  Which means that by proxy number ...our frequency of dunking the ball is going to be a little rarer.  

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Are we still on track for the July 1-4th Sonora heatwave.

...sort of...  Though it's too early to assess air mass origin, there is some semblance still that ridging could try to become more prevalent in the E here over the next week to ten days. It may end up being more of a 4th through the 8th sort of thing, too - 

"Weather" we just get standard departures associated with ridge anomalies, or something more because of having SW cooked troposphere in the mix is too early to tell.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

the next 7 to 10 days in the bevy of guidance/mean therein strikes me as the old NW flow buffer deal on a planetary scale...  Super hot Plain's heat would rip off fragments in that sort appeal ... from time to time these will pass through the Lakes then shunt/dive toward the M/A, sparing NE from what looks like a very hot continental pattern from a distance.  

The 06z GFS-para is the only run of any model that I can find that bucks this idea ...oh D11-15, but at that range the proverbial coin apes an Olympian gymnast.  

It almost seems like any heat at all up our way is by physical law always going to be a fleeting potential ...almost as planetary accident, because of the base-line/rest-state circulation structure of having the continental-topographical bulge over the Rockies cordillera.   It seems the models (rightfully so) can't sustain ridging in the east (...unless of course it means f'ing up a good cold coastal in the winter. ..  j/k).  

Seriously though, the CDC and CPC have been hammering positive PNA, and the pattern looks the part, despite the idea that the index is not correlated significantly enough over North America during JJA...  I've always questioned that finding because of times like these... 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What a suck bag performance from the euro. Trough after trough instead of the ridging it showed. I'll take it.

glad you brought it up though ...heh. 

i noticed that the GFS operational (so far - keep in mind ...nothing's verified yet) hammered the SE Canada NW flow looking all the while the Euro was threatening with headliner Continental heat... then, we get D 9 thru 13 inside of D 7 and we're seeing the Euro reload the trough repetitively, which establishes what the GFS said all along, it its own mean.  ..ie. correction ...

anyway, it's a recent detail in the late middle/extended range modeling behavior that's sort of under the radar...

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