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Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I think 7/4/1911 is still tops. Unfortunately many climo stations don't go back that far.

Certainly the MWN records don't; my records (from Utah Climate Center) go back only to 6/1/1948, the start-up date for many stations.   That July 1911 heat wave is unchallenged for NNE locations, its heat still standing as all time highs for all 3 states.   In Maine, Bridgton holds the record at 105, on both the 4th and the 10th.  Farmington's peak came on the 10th with 104; it was "only" 102 on the 4th (and 6th, and 11th.)  They've only reached 100 twice since then, in June 1944 and on Hot Saturday.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Certainly the MWN records don't; my records (from Utah Climate Center) go back only to 6/1/1948, the start-up date for many stations.   That July 1911 heat wave is unchallenged for NNE locations, its heat still standing as all time highs for all 3 states.   In Maine, Bridgton holds the record at 105, on both the 4th and the 10th.  Farmington's peak came on the 10th with 104; it was "only" 102 on the 4th (and 6th, and 11th.)  They've only reached 100 twice since then, in June 1944 and on Hot Saturday.

It's definitely more NNE centric. Hot Saturday seemed more centered around TAN/PVD. I give 1911 the advantage because of BOS. 103F in 1911 vs 102F in 1975. Plus 1911 was over a week long of near 100F whereas 1975 was a handful of days with most in the 90s.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's definitely more NNE centric. Hot Saturday seemed more centered around TAN/PVD. I give 1911 the advantage because of BOS. 103F in 1911 vs 102F in 1975. Plus 1911 was over a week long of near 100F whereas 1975 was a handful of days with most in the 90s.

And points north.  It set all time records at PWM and BHB (101 on the waterfront at the latter - was the only day I've gone swimming in warm ocean water in Maine, near Otter Cliffs in Acadia.)  Triples extended all the way to MLT, and the 101 at Farmington is the hottest since 7/1911.  However, the length of the 1911 heat far exceeds that of 1975, especially for Maine where we mercifully got back-doored on 8/3 - forecast at 11 PM had been for another 100+ but we enjoyed cloudy low 70s with sprinkles instead.  The only saving grace in 1911 was, for Maine points at least, apparently not terribly humid.  Farmington was having minima in the 63-68 range on its 4 days of 100+ with a 90/48 tossed in as well.  (ASH wasn't so fortunate, recording minima of 76 and 78 with its 106 peak.)

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

And points north.  It set all time records at PWM and BHB (101 on the waterfront at the latter - was the only day I've gone swimming in warm ocean water in Maine, near Otter Cliffs in Acadia.)  Triples extended all the way to MLT, and the 101 at Farmington is the hottest since 7/1911.  However, the length of the 1911 heat far exceeds that of 1975, especially for Maine where we mercifully got back-doored on 8/3 - forecast at 11 PM had been for another 100+ but we enjoyed cloudy low 70s with sprinkles instead.  The only saving grace in 1911 was, for Maine points at least, apparently not terribly humid.  Farmington was having minima in the 63-68 range on its 4 days of 100+ with a 90/48 tossed in as well.  (ASH wasn't so fortunate, recording minima of 76 and 78 with its 106 peak.)

Yeah I probably should've said it was more east than west.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Kevin disagrees.

I'm just looking at the crappy ewall images at 24hr intervals. Looks like the boundary is in CNE based on H85 RH 12z Mon and pushes up into C ME 12z Tue. At this time range that's enough to give me some pause for big heat in my area.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I'm just looking at the crappy ewall images at 24hr intervals. Looks like the boundary is in CNE based on H85 RH 12z Mon and pushes up into C ME 12z Tue. At this time range that's enough to give me some pause for big heat in my area.

It's def an issue verbatim for a chunk of the area...looks like CT River valley verbatim stays out of it, but eastern third of SNE has onshore flow. Something to keep an eye on...we've seen heat delayed by a day before on backdoors.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm just looking at the crappy ewall images at 24hr intervals. Looks like the boundary is in CNE based on H85 RH 12z Mon and pushes up into C ME 12z Tue. At this time range that's enough to give me some pause for big heat in my area.

Looking on WXbell the Euro has really changed for heat on Monday for us in Central NE into Maine.  Looks like cool air makes it down to about Cape Ann.  Cool 70's for highs go from there NW into Northeast Kingdom of Vermont.  Comparing to the 0Z run that is a big change since that run had heat well up into Maine.  By Tuesday the heat expands well NE into Maine.

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm just looking at the crappy ewall images at 24hr intervals. Looks like the boundary is in CNE based on H85 RH 12z Mon and pushes up into C ME 12z Tue. At this time range that's enough to give me some pause for big heat in my area.

   Not like we haven't seen it before. WNE  looks to bake regardless.   Looks like I install on Sunday.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Heh, looks like one of their correction schemes swooping in to save to the day ...  

I don't see any reason why the 12z has to be more right than the 00z...not at this time anyway.  The idea of BD on Monday is brand new and not supported by other guidance and previous runs, and we're still talking about D6 there... 

I'd say the chances for the BD there is about on par with our back-ground probability over this particular geography at any given time for a day 6 ...not much more.  

Having said all that .. I also think it is possible that the entire period from Sun thru mid week is more like 88 to 92 type stuff anyway, and that the models could just be/have been over-doing it on the ridge evolution.  An eased-off heat dome but still a hot pattern is just as likely too -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

18z GFS fails a heat wave out of the whole ridge duration evolution...

Has the 12z Euros "seemingly" phantom BD so aggressive that it might actually be chilly at NE Mass coastal beaches on Monday. 

It's almost laughable ...because that's probably the best heat dome/Sonoran air layer synoptic expression we've seen in years, and both the Euro and GFS just have to go out and find any reason at all to f all up.. 

Honestly, like I was opining yesterday or the day before or whenever, ...there isn't really anything about the mass-field modalities through that period that screams anything special for heat anyway. I don't really have a problem with it normalizing into something less than 'big heat'.  But it really almost looks like these specific g-model solution are a bit zealous with little features there.  If mutes, it hard to seeing a BD being the reason ... seems they are formulating from almost no confluence at mid levels, while ridge heights are bulging like a tsunamis.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Coastal fail for Friday. If this were winter, Kevin would be telling us it's coming back tonight. 

:lol:... "Its coming back to the river.  Don't trust the models, they've had a rough go of it.  I expect by 00z we'll see it start to come west and by 12z tomorrow we will all be in warning snows."

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

:lol:... "Its coming back to the river.  Don't trust the models, they've had a rough go of it.  I expect by 00z we'll see it start to come west and by 12z tomorrow we will all be in warning snows."

Anyone that follows or understands wx knows in winter storms generally trend NW, but summer patterns are exactly opposite. Will has stated that for many years. Never understood why a few mets and posters here thought this would be a massive hit

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone that follows or understands wx knows in winter storms generally trend NW, but summer patterns are exactly opposite. Will has stated that for many years. Never understood why a few mets and posters here thought this would be a massive hit

I honestly never even looked at the upcoming system so can't comment... I'll have to defer to ORH/Will on the first part of that post but that sounds like a salesman talking ;).

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The mets that have been talking about that on Twitter FTL. 1717 in tears

You have had a week or so to provide links to any met who is seriously mentioning 2017 as a legitimate comparison to 1816. In other words you have had more than ample time to provide a link..a twitter handle...a FB page. a website..anything at all, but yet you have failed to provide anything to substantiate your claim. And by the way "mets" is plural so please provide 2 or more "mets" who have mentioned 1816 in regards to 2017.

What has occurred this spring has happened before in SNE What happened in 1816 was an extreme event and not just for SNE. Plain and simple there is no comparison to 1816 nor will there be. And everyone here but you realizes it.

 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
Just now, ineedsnow said:

6z gfs trending back west.. Huge shift from 0z hoping it continues at 12z :)

Can't be!!.....I don't believe it. The GOD of all weather has proclaimed it as a miss to the right.  Perhaps it's a Tanaka storm??.....similar to missing in the strike zone and allowing 3 HR's????

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Can't be!!.....I don't believe it. The GOD of all weather has proclaimed it as a miss to the right.  Perhaps it's a Tanaka storm??.....similar to missing in the strike zone and allowing 3 HR's????

Was going to edit that but ended up deleting... Wasnt really a huge shift but defineitly notable.. I would love for this to shift west lol either way we got our heatwave next week.. Sucks but it is what it is.. Going to just jump in the pool then hibernate in the a/c :)

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