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Model Mehham

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Eps has members with something too.

Will have quite the slug of moisture associated with it coming out of the GOM in early June and it and will likely bear more resemblance to a weak TS/sub tropical system coming up the coast until it gets to latitude of the Mid Atlantic. Should be fun to watch. Hopefully 12z continues the trend. GEFS had a 100 mile shift west but still mostly a graze out of the Cape and downeast ME. Still plenty of time...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

6z GFS and 6z NAM now hit eastern NE with a strong Nor' Easter. 989 mb in GOM  on GFS and NAM would likely be even deeper if extrapolated from its strength/position at hr 84...

The low misses to the SE in the 06z 32 KM NAM evolution ... but, what we are seeing there is a very long fetch ..almost looks like a detached CCB, that is deep in layer and impinging upon the land-based Ekman inhibition then forced to lift.  The incredible saturable amount of atmosphere in the flow channel is thus over-producing over climatology in that solution.  

Totally plausible actually... 

Sensibly?  No one waiting for the T on Comm Ave or suffering a canceled little league game will no the difference, so Nor'easter is as Nor'easter does...  But, in the strictest sense this is mainly an Atlantic pig pile job into eastern New England, with some lap-over into eastern NY/PA/N NJ (love to see that set up in 29 F isothermal sounding  muah hahahaha).

Actually, enough of the other guidance types have enough semblance of something similar to throw hands and figure for hell on Earth, either way.   If there was any doubt about the timely conclusion of the overly stated "drought" that spanned the last 12 months of unnecessary posting ... this should put some stank and style on alleviating that doubt... 

-------

Beyond...  for the general reader: as we discussed either yesterday or the day before ..etc., the extent and magnitude of this warmer pattern thereafter is in question and always has been (most are aware that know how to read...)  But, that does offer some envelope of possibilities ranging from a normal to much above unfortunately.  

The teleconnectors are seasonally faded at this point (though the NAO does have some lingering usefulness in summers..).  Personally, I believe that the PNA can in fact re-enter consideration in summer provided the index crosses over a kind of "coherence threshhold"  ...which is to say both in numbers and appeal the EOFs are picking up on something unusually strong in the physics of the circulation.   

Now does not exactly ring as one of those times...  However, it is notable that the operational guidance' are all on board for at least ending the Atlantic cold tuck assault pattern that's been more than less in place since mid April...  (yes, that includes the faux heat wave that snuck in between r-wave rollback from last month, too).  Seeing both the CDC, CPC and what I can glean from the EPS losing the previous numbers in lieu of a new relaxed index spread is more likely than not, related... and probably does at least signal a different paradigm that is in the least defacto warmer.  We'll see how warm it gets. 

I would caution however that between hour ~ 60 and about 100 or so ... GGEM, Euro and GFS all indicate a Sonoran release/expulsion of erstwhile cooked air... That's kind of a wild card. We can see these flat-lined flows with subtle ridges (or even more ridging in some cases) come and go without the contained thickness' being usual ..and you end up pedestrian as far as positive departures. Other times one of those air masses gets ejected down stream and rattles around in that circulation and it's a bit of different ball of dripping wax... 

EDIT: oh wait ..duh.. you were talking about the 84 to 102 hour thing - okay. 

Yeah that would be something if we could map that sucker over top the 2 to 3" basin soaking the 06z NAM gives in the earlier periods.. That should be a good flood threat for short responders...  

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Happy June 

GFS MOS (MAV)
 KORH   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    6/05/2017  1200 UTC                      
 DT /JUNE  5/JUNE  6                /JUNE  7                /JUNE  8 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    49          49          45          62    48 
 TMP  58 58 57 54 52 50 49 49 48 47 46 46 47 47 49 54 60 61 55 51 54 
 DPT  53 53 52 50 49 48 47 46 48 47 46 45 45 45 45 44 42 41 40 39 39 
 CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV SC CL BK BK 
 WDR  06 06 05 04 04 04 05 05 05 04 03 01 36 35 01 03 04 05 13 31 04 
 WSP  07 08 08 08 10 10 09 12 11 10 09 07 08 07 08 08 07 06 05 05 05 
 P06        36    57    62    85    92    71    49    18     2  4  8 
 P12                    78          92          75          18     9 
 Q06         0     1     1     2     3     1     1     0     0  0  0 
 Q12                     1           4           2           0     0 
 T06      6/12  1/ 0  0/ 0  2/ 0  6/ 1  3/ 0  2/ 0  2/ 0  4/ 0  1/ 0 
 T12            6/22        2/ 0        6/ 9        2/ 0     4/12    
 CIG   1  1  1  1  1  1  1  2  2  2  2  2  1  2  2  5  7  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   1  2  1  1  1  1  1  3  4  3  3  3  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 OBV  FG FG FG FG FG FG FG BR BR BR BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Happy June 


GFS MOS (MAV)
 KORH   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    6/05/2017  1200 UTC                      
 DT /JUNE  5/JUNE  6                /JUNE  7                /JUNE  8 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    49          49          45          62    48 
 TMP  58 58 57 54 52 50 49 49 48 47 46 46 47 47 49 54 60 61 55 51 54 
 DPT  53 53 52 50 49 48 47 46 48 47 46 45 45 45 45 44 42 41 40 39 39 
 CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV SC CL BK BK 
 WDR  06 06 05 04 04 04 05 05 05 04 03 01 36 35 01 03 04 05 13 31 04 
 WSP  07 08 08 08 10 10 09 12 11 10 09 07 08 07 08 08 07 06 05 05 05 
 P06        36    57    62    85    92    71    49    18     2  4  8 
 P12                    78          92          75          18     9 
 Q06         0     1     1     2     3     1     1     0     0  0  0 
 Q12                     1           4           2           0     0 
 T06      6/12  1/ 0  0/ 0  2/ 0  6/ 1  3/ 0  2/ 0  2/ 0  4/ 0  1/ 0 
 T12            6/22        2/ 0        6/ 9        2/ 0     4/12    
 CIG   1  1  1  1  1  1  1  2  2  2  2  2  1  2  2  5  7  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   1  2  1  1  1  1  1  3  4  3  3  3  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 OBV  FG FG FG FG FG FG FG BR BR BR BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

 

Cheap 05z highs might screw us. Had a shot for the monthly all time record low max if it weren't for the overnight hours. A lot of guidance is showing mid-40s tomorrow afternoon for ORH. Still have a pretty got shot at the daily record though of 51F in 2000.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cheap 05z highs might screw us. Had a shot for the monthly all time record low max if it weren't for the overnight hours. A lot of guidance is showing mid-40s tomorrow afternoon for ORH. Still have a pretty got shot at the daily record though of 51F in 2000.

Those afternoon 58s are getting a beat down...still 53F at the 18z ob. That matches the MOS dews pretty well. Base your temps around that for the next 36hrs and you're around 49F at midnight LST. 47F will be tough to beat.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is 95F+ in the hot spots next Monday.

Can't wait. Tomorrow is going to be the worst June day of any of our lives. One of those you'd look at if you didn't live through it and wonder how it was possible.

 

At least we can see deep summer settling in for good, so it makes it semi tolerable 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That would probably be a 100F watch for an unnamed tarmac.

Para GFS MOS has the high Monday at 16 F over climo at D7 !   ...

that's getting close to the isotope limit for that product's ability to buck climo at that sort of time lead - very difficult to stress that product much more than that... I did once see it 22 on a D4 which is right up there.  But 16 at 7, when that product is almost entirely guided by climo is a telling signal. 

Bottom line, I don't think any 2-m products are going to pick up on that - not that you ask of course heh.  But, that's pretty much a solid three days into Tues and Wed, too.  

Seven days ...still a lot of time to muck that up, so for heat enthusiasts ...it's really no different than how the other side should use a D7 Euro prog - 

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can't wait. Tomorrow is going to be the worst June day of any of our lives. One of those you'd look at if you didn't live through it and wonder how it was possible.

At least we can see deep summer settling in for good, so it makes it semi tolerable 

I'd nominate this lovely pair:

6/1/2015:  47   44   .74"
6/2/2015:  45   41   .59"

I think BOS had twin 49s those days.  The chill was especially nasty as I'd had 3 days in the 80s the previous week.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Do you really need to be further back in the woods?

The key is to hit it over everything and into the next fairway. That way you have a clear shot at the green from 250 out.

But the GFS and Euro do agree on some EML air coming our way, so it could be a toasty day.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

The key is to hit it over everything and into the next fairway. That way you have a clear shot at the green from 250 out.

But the GFS and Euro do agree on some EML air coming our way, so it could be a toasty day.

Not for me, I'll be in England all next week. Haven't officially checked but I don't believe that I'll see 90's over there. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Not for me, I'll be in England all next week. Haven't officially checked but I don't believe that I'll see 90's over there. 

Lol....I was there in mid June 25 years ago and it was an inferno-90s most days.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol....I was there in mid June 25 years ago and it was an inferno-90s most days.

Just checked, nothing but 60's through next Wednesday. We'll see after that. We fly in to Heathrow Sunday and stay in London until Wednesday and then head north to visit family until the 20th.  

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
Just now, mreaves said:

Just checked, nothing but 60's through next Wednesday. We'll see after that. We fly in to Heathrow Sunday and stay in London until Wednesday and then head north to visit family until the 20th.  

Either way it will be great.  Daylight forever!

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HimoorWx

HimoorWx

Posted
Posted
Just checked, nothing but 60's through next Wednesday. We'll see after that. We fly in to Heathrow Sunday and stay in London until Wednesday and then head north to visit family until the 20th.  


My wife has been in London since last Wednesday, and had mostly sun and 70s. Rain and cool today. Where in the north are you heading. Spent time in Manchester, Liverpool, Lake District and Peak District. Love it up there, and planning to go back in the fall.

Sent from my SM-T713 using Tapatalk

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:


My wife has been in London since last Wednesday, and had mostly sun and 70s. Rain and cool today. Where in the north are you heading. Spent time in Manchester, Liverpool, Lake District and Peak District. Love it up there, and planning to go back in the fall.

Sent from my SM-T713 using Tapatalk
 

My aunt & uncle and cousins live in the Huddersfield area which is between Manchester and Leeds. We have Britrail passes and plan on taking day trips to Liverpool (I want to see Anfield), York and and the moors.  

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