Model Mehham

[Typhoon Tip]

Taun is 90

[weathafella]

Late surge for BOS.  Looks like at least 88 at 1.  90 becoming probable.

[weathafella]

Actual hourly 87 but that's a blip.

[dendrite]

Just now, weathafella said:

Actual hourly 87 but that's a blip.

Could be 87 or 88 so far based on the 31C obs. They had enough 31C obs that it probably hit 88 despite the drop back to 87 at the hourly. Either way, they're going to need one more "push" upward.

[tamarack]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's notable anyway with records having fallen ...but, a 3-day official would impressive this early.  It happens though... I wonder what the return rate is on heat of this ilk. The thing is, there's a difference in my mind between 88 to 92 type early heat ...  compared to big heat, 97 type numbers.  i guess that's why 'standard deviation' has any meaning -

Need to go up north for that.  May 22-24, 1977 at CAR had 96/95/94.  They just missed 370 days later with 92/89/89.  I don't have my Ft. Kent records handy, but recall having the 3-day runs each year, 93/93/92 in 1977 and 95/90/92 (IIRC) in 1978.  (We lived on the flats away from water then, and thus got hotter than the FK co-op spitting distance from the Fish River, which was still running high with water temps in the 40s.)

That map only shows the days departure, not the months.  The past couple of days only moved my average temp from coldest May average to 6th coldest May since 1985.

The past two days, plus today thanks to a cheap obs-time high of 77 last evening, will total 40-42° of AN departure, pulling my 3° BN for May 1-16 down to about -0.5.  I'm guessing the month ends within 1° of my average for May.

[Damage In Tolland]

Official heatwave at BDL. Hit 90. What a win 

[Typhoon Tip]

if it stopped rising now... the total three days gets a huge honorable mention...  

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Need to go up north for that.  May 22-24, 1977 at CAR had 96/95/94.  They just missed 370 days later with 92/89/89.  I don't have my Ft. Kent records handy, but recall having the 3-day runs each year, 93/93/92 in 1977 and 95/90/92 (IIRC) in 1978.  (We lived on the flats away from water then, and thus got hotter than the FK co-op spitting distance from the Fish River, which was still running high with water temps in the 40s.)

That map only shows the days departure, not the months.  The past couple of days only moved my average temp from coldest May average to 6th coldest May since 1985.

The past two days, plus today thanks to a cheap obs-time high of 77 last evening, will total 40-42° of AN departure, pulling my 3° BN for May 1-16 down to about -0.5.  I'm guessing the month ends within 1° of my average for May.

That really is sick at that latitude...wow. 

It's interesting to me because the 1970s actually had a few pig heat waves that set records, despite being in a local temporal climate dip on a planetary scale.  Here's the thing (which is going to sound eyes wobbling nuts..>) but, that era of the 1970s also was during a similar present era of solar minimum. hmm.  I think there is a similarity in the eras (patterns, too) just perhaps cloaked/smeared by GW...  Ah, it's a long thought I know -.  it's just that persistent dip in the anomaly distribution where it seems NE, SE Canada and the Maritimes are always neutral negative relative to the rest in the last 15 years smacks of a semi-permanent tendency for NW flow in Canada and let's be fair; it save winter around here and the midwest a few times in the last several seasons.  The 1970s had not shortage of years dominated with NWerlies

August '76 and hot Saturday will come back, I think 

[Typhoon Tip]

kbos is 90 on EDD

[Sugarloaf1989]

91F + 5F above forecast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Congrats Jerry and BOS for the heatwave.   I didn't think it was in the cards.  KFIT will be close  88F last hour

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That really is sick at that latitude...wow. 

It's interesting to me because the 1970s actually had a few pig heat waves that set records, despite being in a local temporal climate dip on a planetary scale.  Here's the thing (which is going to sound eyes wobbling nuts..>) but, that era of the 1970s also was during a similar present era of solar minimum. hmm.  I think there is a similarity in the eras (patterns, too) just perhaps cloaked/smeared by GW...  Ah, it's a long thought I know -.  it's just that persistent dip in the anomaly distribution where it seems NE, SE Canada and the Maritimes are always neutral negative relative to the rest in the last 15 years smacks of a semi-permanent tendency for NW flow in Canada and let's be fair; it save winter around here and the midwest a few times in the last several seasons.  The 1970s had not shortage of years dominated with NWerlies

August '76 and hot Saturday will come back, I think 

And May 1977 had the scrumptious snowfall in SNE

I don't know if there is any correlation between that and the heatwave... longer spacing between the snow and heat than this season

 Maybe a more amplified whiplash?

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And May 1977 had the scrumptious snowfall in SNE

I don't know if there is any correlation between that and the heatwave... longer spacing between the snow and heat than this season

 Maybe a more amplified whiplash?

yeah, that could be part of the 'design similarity', - last week's snow.

but, actually... we've had a disproportionately larger frequency of weird snow chances in Mays (at the other end in October's, too -) now spanning the last 15 to 20 years, way more so actually than I personally recall in the 25 years priort - before which I was not alive so ..heh.  

anyway, that part could be coincidence.  it's just been a weird decade in a half ...almost like 50/50 chance just in that range that any given years you get either an appetizer or a good-night kiss.

[Damage In Tolland]

Wow. You guys are best of friends now

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

kbos is 90 on EDD

BOX dialed into the ASOS at 2:55 and max is 89 for the day. Might have been an hourly rounding error.

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

BOX dialed into the ASOS at 2:55 and max is 89 for the day. Might have been an hourly rounding error.

Muthafukkas!

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Muthafukkas!

So they dialed in at 2:15 and 2:55 and said in chat that the high was only 89, then issue an RER saying they hit 90 and tied the record at 2:27. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

So they dialed in at 2:15 and 2:55 and said in chat that the high was only 89, then issue an RER saying they hit 90 and tied the record at 2:27. 

Lol...it's like dealing with HR...

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

So they dialed in at 2:15 and 2:55 and said in chat that the high was only 89, then issue an RER saying they hit 90 and tied the record at 2:27. 

LOL

 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Lol...it's like dealing with HR...

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

LOL

I guess congrats everyone on the heat wave. Let's see if the CLI says something different in another hour or so.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That really is sick at that latitude...wow. 

It's interesting to me because the 1970s actually had a few pig heat waves that set records, despite being in a local temporal climate dip on a planetary scale.  Here's the thing (which is going to sound eyes wobbling nuts..>) but, that era of the 1970s also was during a similar present era of solar minimum. hmm.  I think there is a similarity in the eras (patterns, too) just perhaps cloaked/smeared by GW...  Ah, it's a long thought I know -.  it's just that persistent dip in the anomaly distribution where it seems NE, SE Canada and the Maritimes are always neutral negative relative to the rest in the last 15 years smacks of a semi-permanent tendency for NW flow in Canada and let's be fair; it save winter around here and the midwest a few times in the last several seasons.  The 1970s had not shortage of years dominated with NWerlies

August '76 and hot Saturday will come back, I think 

Downsloping W/NW breeze FTW as CAR tied for its hottest on record.  (I was insulating the attic of my very small 2-story that morning - probably 140+ up there as I finished about 11 AM.)  The heat wave ended with a ripping TS late morning of the 25th.  Nickel-size hail threatened to break our windows and obliterated my very young garden; plants were not merely crushed, there was no evidence they'd ever been there.  Of course, I missed all the fun, except the garden re-plant, as I was working about 10 miles west of Allagash.  There we saw only a gust front that toppled some snags and a spritz of rain as the action was getting under way just to our east.

The "era of the 1970s" caught my interest, because the previous decade was relatively cold as well, yet included NYC's hottest (until 2010 eclipsed it) and driest met summer on record, 1966.  Four days topped 100, and the 3-day July 4th weekend highs were 100, 103 (107 @ LGA) and 98.  Not hoping for a hot Saturday repeat.  We went blueberry picking in Gouldsboro that morning, and by the time we quit there were jokes about sprinkling sugar on the bushes to make jam right in the field.  Then we drove to Mt. Desert, where BHB hit 101 with toes in Frenchman's Bay.  The relatively shallow water just south of Otter Cliffs was actually almost warm, not the usual 55°.

[dendrite]

Oops...missed the BOX talk in this thread. Congrats all on the HW.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah but the thing with the EDD page is that it sat at 90 and went back to 89 then back to 90 for two straight hours or more so we're saying that was 2 to 3 hours of rounding error?

okay ... if it's that bad I really wish they would provide some kind of resource to the tax paying public that actually gives us the f'n temperatures ? Other than the granular hourly that is

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS OP  is really backing down on the deep ULL/trough Memorial Day weekend on the past few runs. It Now has most of New England in the 70's and 80's over the holiday weekend.  Below is the trend of the past 4 runs valid 12z Saturday.  The Trough basically splits in 2 and a bit of a SE ridge starts to flex it's muscles on the latest runs. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

EPS is not quite as aggressive at completely erasing the lower height anomalies but is improving as well.  I'm not expecting a overly warm and completely dry weekend up in the lakes region of Maine where I plan on going but if we can avoid the huge ULL of doom and just contend with a some instability clouds or a pop up passing shower or two and temps near 70 I would be very happy. 

[weathafella]

Nice day today.  Currently 70 IMBY.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro's got temps near 80 for the holiday weekend. Those that had been hoping for a cool rainout are in trouble 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Nice day today.  Currently 70 IMBY.

It was like sitting at a table at the Library of Congress only with the added sunshine as an option

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro's got temps near 80 for the holiday weekend. Those that had been hoping for a cool rainout are in trouble 

lol you're a trip.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Even though ... it would not surprise me if conditions turned out fairer relative to the modeled characteristics for the Memorial Day weekend.

It's not unusual from mid April onward into summer, to verify better compared to the complexion of any given middle and extended range.  Just by experience alone ... these troughs tend to be 'overly forcing' the two main/ major sensible aspects of the weather; those being ... temperature, sky coverage.  You will tend to be, too cool, because (related) the sky is overly pessimistic and that's not interpretive - the models seem to actually physically assess those parameters too bleakly.  

I've often wonder why that is.  It's like you see a trough plumb down through the lakes and take a parabolic trajectory prior to ~ April, and that would undoubtedly herald a day or two minimum of less than fair conditions. But from mid spring on, you're just as likely to end up with partly to mostly cloudy, with at least some splashes of sun here and there/intervals. Temperatures thus are often actually more like pleasantly kept from being too high if anything. Meanwhile, the trough ..even containing a closed surface may merely turn out to whirl pretty harmlessly overhead ... passing on by without having caused the 48 F in drilling ENE breezes and misty rains originally designed.  

Sometimes the latter does happen, though - duh, of course.  But, it seems in terms of "correctability" .. this time of year offers at least more in the way of potential at all times when peering out beyond D 4 or 5s in any respective outlook. 

I think it's the sun simply ..really.  It's a powerful modulating force.  Every day of greater than 50 % insolation takes a toll on the thickness medium everywhere ..and that has to get into the initialization of the grids over successes runs.  Modeling of the atmosphere is an integral of thermodynamic and fluid mechanical physics in time ...so, quite intuitively if we modulate the cold (and warm) side of the thickness medium, the rest follows...

My hunch is that cloud production (albedo effect) may be related to that perceived error. ... And, it's not really a glaring example of error, either.  It's almost like there's a 15 to 30% improvement coefficient out there in time as hypothetical.