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Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Have any SNE climo sites ever hit 100F in May?

That April 1976 temp Tamarack posted is nuts

We were visiting family in NJ that Eastertime, and almost dying in the heat - so was our 1971 Beetle.  It felt so good to return to Ft. Kent and find temps around 60 with still the odd pile of snow to be found.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Just now, weathafella said:

Verbatim that's 70ish for us.  Like winter and December real summer typically waits until we're deeper into June.

like I said before, men in suits taking pictures everywhere, should be awesome, june can often have many top ten days

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Office worker talk. Perfect weather for all, we COCadoodledewless 

Lol....where's your similar talk when it's 14 in winter...construction continues.   Extreme wx is why we're here.  Heat is part of that.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

I don't think 850 mb were +20 ?   at any time over the last three days so I'm a little confused there.  heh, I didn't look at the verified soundings -

Yesterday and the previous days over shot MOS by a couple few ticks; but that should be/have been expected. The MOS tech has a built in experience trust that requires successive occurrences under similar initial conditions ...and is thus,  tuning over successive decades.  

Back in the day we learned, the default output of it's technology/interpretive algorithms do not contain particular aspects such as "local studies" in the base-line numbers.  The way we learned in FAST, the basis are derived by classical adiabatic mathematics, then...  after, modulated by past occurrences/climo, that given time, means they will assess under similar conditions.  

What all that means is that with the wind starting the day at WNW and RH lower than 40 % (such that yesterday dawned ... to mention the day before, too), with the initial condition of 850 mb temps in the 16 to 17 C range, in May with superb heating, the 2-meter temps may seem to violate those thermodynamic initial conditions but they don't - obviously.  The difference is, as we get east of the elevations/topography, the "sigma" level drops out so you get a tick or two back in compression..  etc etc.  

That was all the way that work with MOS back in the 1990s ...I'm not sure the present day product is constructed using the same general method or whatever - someone else may know.  But, I do still see even this spring so far, sunny days have been routine a minimum error on the + side of 0 bias.  Some times as much as a full degree to multiple degrees.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think 850 mb were +20 ?   at any time over the last three days so I'm a little confused there.  heh, I didn't look at the verified soundings -

Yesterday and the previous days over shot MOS by a couple few ticks; but that should be/have been expected. The MOS tech has a built in experience trust that requires successive occurrences under similar initial conditions ...and is thus,  tuning over successive decades.  

Back in the day we learned, the default output of it's technology/interpretive algorithms do not contain particular aspects such as "local studies" in the base-line numbers.  The way we learned in FAST, the basis are derived by classical adiabatic mathematics, then...  after, modulated by past occurrences/climo, that given time, means they will assess under similar conditions.  

What all that means is that with the wind starting the day at WNW and RH lower than 40 % (such that yesterday dawned ... to mention the day before, too), with the initial condition of 850 mb temps in the 16 to 17 C range, in May with superb heating, the 2-meter temps may seem to violate those thermodynamic initial conditions but they don't - obviously.  The difference is, as we get east of the elevations/topography, the "sigma" level drops out so you get a tick or two back in compression..  etc etc.  

That was all the way that work with MOS back in the 1990s ...I'm not sure the present day product is constructed using the same general method or whatever - someone else may know.  But, I do still see even this spring so far, sunny days have been routine a minimum error on the + side of 0 bias.  Some times as much as a full degree to multiple degrees.

The numbers I posted were from the 00z soundings.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The 93F at PWM is the warmest for so early in the season. I'm surprised they hadn't had warmer than 92F before this date.

Kind of a semi-maritime climate, with the cool GOM nearly lapping at their obs site.  Looking at their hottest days on record shows a distinct late-summer slant.  They've had 5 triple-digit days and 5 at 99.  Those ten included 3 in July and 7 in August.  More than half of their 28 days at 97+ were in August, and July doesn't take the lead until one drops to 95+.   Until yesterday, they had recorded just one day (94 on 5/21/21) prior to the 30th that topped 92.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Kind of a semi-maritime climate, with the cool GOM nearly lapping at their obs site.  Looking at their hottest days on record shows a distinct late-summer slant.  They've had 5 triple-digit days and 5 at 99.  Those ten included 3 in July and 7 in August.  More than half of their 28 days at 97+ were in August, and July doesn't take the lead until one drops to 95+.   Until yesterday, they had recorded just one day (94 on 5/21/21) prior to the 30th that topped 92.

:huh:

...ha, I know what you mean tho. but ... I have argued in the past, particularly when the frustration of a locked in BD air mass is being choked off and left behind by a synoptic -scaled change that was ineffectual at carving the Atlantic cold sludge out of the region along the Coastal plain/above Long Island ...got to me, that:

if one puts a ruler down on a map, and aligns it from NYC to PWM - all points S-E of that line are in a continental/Marine hybrid region.   The power and most importantly ... the vulnerability to the power of the modulating influence of the Atlantic in that region (which pretty much is ALL of SNE save the NW zones) is too marked in our climate not to be imho - 

Days like yesterday are the continental days...  Otherwise, I can even smell the ocean here at 40 miles inland as the crow flies in some scenarios...   Warm fronts seemed to need more momentum/mechanics to actually succeed our region than the same system setup would in the plains, because we have a unique way of drawing in the oceans influence that negatively feeds back on warm boundary displacement. ...And it goes the other way in winter storms, too.. .sometimes, as much as we look for cold damming, CFs can erode enough inland to ruin that party too

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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it's notable anyway with records having fallen ...but, a 3-day official would impressive this early.  It happens though... I wonder what the return rate is on heat of this ilk. The thing is, there's a difference in my mind between 88 to 92 type early heat ...  compared to big heat, 97 type numbers.  i guess that's why 'standard deviation' has any meaning -

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