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Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

well... that's a particularly egregious looking Euro week... Holy Moses pop the cap off the benzodiazepine on that one - 

If you can, you may as well vacate to a new country until June in that look. Who knows how long that's going to last ...but the basic gist of having high pressure after high pressure passing N like that means just about the worst.

I suppose there is a small contingent of users that actually enjoys that sort of weather  ... like those of the -(S.A.D.) tongue-in-cheek the other day. Excluding those, there's really not much redeeming at all about that look...  It insults all tastes.

Nothing's verified yet of course but ...I was afraid of this. A couple few days ago I lamented that the overall teleconnector spread really argued for the worst and well, here we are in the models.  we'll see...    

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... that's a particularly egregious looking Euro week... Holy Moses pop the cap off the benzodiazepine on that one - 

If you can, you may as well vacate to a new country until June in that look. Who knows how long that's going to last ...but the basic gist of having high pressure after high pressure passing N like that means just about the worst.

I suppose there is a small contingent of users that actually enjoys that sort of weather  ... like those of the -(S.A.D.) tongue-in-cheek the other day. Excluding those, there's really not much redeeming at all about that look...  It insults all tastes.

Nothing's verified yet of course but ...I was afraid of this. A couple few days ago I lamented that the overall teleconnector spread really argued for the worst and well, here we are in the models.  we'll see...    

Sometimes if it's NW flow you get some 70 degree Nape days inland while coasts are bundled up against sea breezes and 46 degree chill. Could envision a few days like that until winds veer East as highs move off

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sometimes if it's NW flow you get some 70 degree Nape days inland while coasts are bundled up against sea breezes and 46 degree chill. Could envision a few days like that until winds veer East as highs move off

yeeah, good luck with that. 

It doesn't look that way to me.  The EPS is in on it too with days and days of either +PP north, or lows passing underneath... I don't see any DS dandies there - it really comes down to a question of geometry and where we are in relation to the direction the isobars, and how that suggests the winds will be in the boundary layer and that down-slope thing isn't supported really after Monday.  What you describe could make for a spectacular Patriots Day, granted, but after that?  all bets are off perhaps for a week straight. 

It could change still..but I'd be looking for other hobbies and past time back up plans if I were you just in case. 

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeeah, good luck with that. 

It doesn't look that way to me.  The EPS is in on it too with days and days of either +PP north, or lows passing underneath... I don't see any DS dandies there - it really comes down to a question of geometry and where we are in relation to the direction the isobars, and how that suggests the winds will be in the boundary layer and that down-slope thing isn't supported really after Monday.  What you describe could make for a spectacular Patriots Day, granted, but after that?  all bets are off perhaps for a week straight. 

It could change still..but I'd be looking for other hobbies and past time back up plans if I were you just in case. 

 

Well there's nothing to track anyway. I'd rather not track days of 46 and drizzle..Though I suspect it ends up being 1-2 bad days and the rest are decent.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Pointing this out to the straw man here:

...buuut, can't say we didn't have notice of the impending rectal plaque pattern. It's been in the larger scoped, mass field modes and modalities for days; that the PNA would mightily flip from negative to positive, in lag procession with the EPO's decaying negative interval was mentioned on a few occasions over the past week. Seems that's actually behaving rather well when comparing/balancing that facet against the tenor of most operational guidance and their ensemble means this morning. 

The particular spatial-temporal arrangement, where the -PNA/-EPO reverses...  typically precedes eras where the anomaly distribution (temperature) ends up on the negative side.  That's DJF ... with lap over depending on either end.

We could argue that the seasonality of changing wave-lengths (R-numbers) breaks down teleconnector correlations ...or at least alters them. Sure. But that in its self is relative? Some years that happens earlier, where other years one may rely upon them a bit longer.  

This go of it...the stronger than normal gradient we've endured pretty much end to end since about Halloween, is still sort of there ... if perhaps morphed into an April complexion/hidden. But, the fastness of the flow doesn't really lend to the seasonal shrinking wave-length theory too well... So, perhaps it stands to reason that this particular spring ... a mid April arrival of +PNA/ delta(-EPO) doesn't end well for spring enthusiasts.  

In fact, in a science fiction muse ... thinking back to the April 1987 snow event in the interior: The present teleconnector spread and antecedent believe-ability is a marvelous presage to just such an event.  I wonder what those mass-fields looked like back in the day, the week prior, because we have to look at the dailies and forget the calendar sometimes.  The fact of the matter is, the PNA does flip from -1 to +1 or more, after a period where the EPO was not only negative ...but, the models et al are laying down a broad mass of 850 mb temperatures -10 to -25 C over central Canada (meaning said EPO was successful in cold loading).  It doesn't matter what the calendar says, that's a couple of red necks playing with liquid nitrogen there. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. Weekend looks nice with sun and 60's Sat. Sunday clouds over in afternoon but decent overall

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. Weekend looks nice with sun and 60's Sat. Sunday clouds over in afternoon but decent overall

That is not what the Euro shows but LOL I'll believe your voodoo stuff

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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Posted

I know many complain about the flipping back and forth this time of the year but I think those who are looking for an end to prolonged backdooring periods with 40's and misery mist should always welcome the torch we saw the first half of this month. In my opinion the significant and broad  damage inflicted upon the snowpack throughout the region will really help to reduce back door CAD going forward as it tilts the feedbacks in favor of the the mid to late April sun. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Yet despite the grid, the MOS' aren't terrible - more like seasonally cool biased actually. 

Thing is, after three days of solid positive departures ... (exceeding 30 F in some cases!), even returning to just modestly above normal might seem frigid by relative comparison.  That may affect/effect peoples judgement. But here, we augment that further with what appears to be manageable negatives if going just by the machine numbers.

I was just looking at the GFSX MOS (which I believe is inputted by the para-GFS) and of the next seven days it has five of them below normal for Logan by an average of -2.29, and the remainder offer up +1.57 ... in concept the week is below normal, however, not exceptionally so.  

Normal sort of cool departures -  

Of course, machine guidance factors in climatology (I believe) the further out in time so, having a -8 F on D 4 might also be masking a pretty nasty day.  But, it also has a +7 on D 6, which might also do the same in the other direction. 

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