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Model Mehham

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Heading up north to do some spring cleanup. Also hoping to see some snow mix in at higher elevations. I'm thinking there's a decent possibility some snow may accumulate above about 2500'. Thoughts?

It's going to be very lift-dependent. Some of the guidance is keeping the best lift a bit east of that area, so we'll have to watch it. There's a really high chance of accumulating snow above 4k feet I think...for 2500 feet, I'd prob put the odds around 50/50 right now. It could just be a few mangled catpaws if we aren't cranking the mid-levels hard enough. There's some subtle differences in the guidance...the GFS looks better for NH and the ECMWF looks better for places like Sugarloaf-Jackman-Rangeley in terms of getting snow below 2500 feet. The Euro is the furthest east of all guidance, so I'd probably compromise back west a little on its solution. The Presidentials look like they'll def get some decent snow and prob Mahoosucs.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's going to be very lift-dependent. Some of the guidance is keeping the best lift a bit east of that area, so we'll have to watch it. There's a really high chance of accumulating snow above 4k feet I think...for 2500 feet, I'd prob put the odds around 50/50 right now. It could just be a few mangled catpaws if we aren't cranking the mid-levels hard enough. There's some subtle differences in the guidance...the GFS looks better for NH and the ECMWF looks better for places like Sugarloaf-Jackman-Rangeley in terms of getting snow below 2500 feet. The Euro is the furthest east of all guidance, so I'd probably compromise back west a little on its solution. The Presidentials look like they'll def get some decent snow and prob Mahoosucs.

I mean it's real close. Forecast soundings are all playing around with that 2500-4000 foot layer. 12z NAM actually has snow to the valley floor at HIE (12.5" of it). But from 09-15z Sunday it is ripping 20-30 ubars through the DGZ.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

You know what this going to look like in the wee hour of Sunday morning on radar? 

Snow ... 

Yup. That's because the melt line aloft is going to be so close to the same elevation of the rad signal the reflectivity will still be smooth.  

Anyway, I'm impressed with the rapidity the switch (appears to) finally flips this next week.  Monday probably murks out but Tuesday is the transition day. 

Wednesday looks like about 82 in full sun to me.  OH I'm sure the MOS argues against as usual... But it could be borderline 'hot' on Thursday before (IF) we back door for a day and half. 

Typical for early heat around here... We get a day ..then it's interrupted while the Labrador current charges taxes on the synoptics, then once we've paid the bill it turns the lights back on - ...meanwhile, PHL gets it's power entirely comped 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

:lol:

Granted I work for a brewery but I couldn't imagine driving far to get beer or waiting in line. 

You should've seen me running around Chicago last weekend trying to find Zombie Dust.

Struck out (as it's apparently a short shelf life on delivery day) but did try Three Floyds Gumballhead, Yum Yum, and Alpha King. Good stuff. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

You should've seen me running around Chicago last weekend trying to find Zombie Dust.

Struck out (as it's apparently a short shelf life on delivery day) but did try Three Floyds Gumballhead, Yum Yum, and Alpha King. Good stuff. 

I've had it a couple times. It's mediocre. You're not missing much.

Not sure what Scooter is talking about. 3 runs to Treehouse last 3 weeks, and friends getting me Trailblazer 2 weeks ago and this coming week. and heading to Canton Men Day weekend for soccer tourney so will be hitting Trillium daily.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Man, that is sooo close.  I know I know - that horse has been beaten good and dead... But still, there are guidance' down to 0 C at all of like 2,000 feet over the top of Boston with moderate to heavy QPF. 

The Euro was warmish in the entry hours to this weekend's misery, but as the N-stream (probably the real last gasp during last rites on winter (you have to remember ...snow doesn't mean winter ;)  ) dynamics infuse, the system does manufacture entangled 850 mb cold to the tune of 0 or even -1 C over eastern and central NE for a few hours early-mid day Sunday. 

It certainly does offer potential for white in Whites' , if elevation hasn't already been covered (heh, who am I kidding..).  But, I wouldn't be surprised ... if you were crazy enough to stand atop the the bald exposure of Manadnock I bet you'd have chutes and paws filling the air there for a short period as the core of the cold is mixing into the back edge of UVM. 

Then, for me .. equally impressive as this look is for this time of year could be the transition between Monday and Tuesday of this week.  Wow.  If Euro synoptic evolution worked out ... it's like 40 to 48 with wind whisked mist through much of the day on Monday, and 24 hours later, the model depicts light off-shore wind, low cloud level RH (signaling sun), and 850 mb temperatures all the way to +9 C (up 10 or 9 from the previous day).  Those numbers alone should push the upper 70s over much of the area.  Combined with high May sun? It would be like boarding a commercial airliner and flying to a completely different region of the planet, stepping off the 'plane and going, whoa!

That sets the stage for a week that will most likely be above normal... Believe it or not.. .despite the general flavor of May so far, it's not too late to have the month recover and even be above normal - I just think that would funny if so.  Steal enough time to leave a bad taste in everyone's memory while lying about it in the end numbers - that's called a crime in human parlance.  haha.  

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Modfan

Modfan

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I've had it a couple times. It's mediocre. You're not missing much.

Not sure what Scooter is talking about. 3 runs to Treehouse last 3 weeks, and friends getting me Trailblazer 2 weeks ago and this coming week. and heading to Canton Men Day weekend for soccer tourney so will be hitting Trillium daily.

Are they done building their brewery in Charlton? 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

17C 850s...probably a lot of 92-93F readings in the hot spots.

It's really something comparing that, with the feel Monday morning at like 6:45 am...  That's like the bottom barrel nadir of this bullschit spring ...then a meteoric reversal.  

The half committed green up should be Cambodian rainforest stuff a week from Monday - 

Anyway, I'm waiting for the models to back off the trimmer front early Friday ... but, hasn't happened yet 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MarkO said:

I might head up to Cannon tomorrow morning. I "think" (hoping) it's going to be snow above 2500'. I've been sitting at 29 ski days for almost a month. I've never reached 30! NAM trended colder. 

I haven't looked at the Whites but here in the Greens it looks like a picnic table topper if anything.  Looking at soundings for MPV the NAM is coldest and wet-bulbs the 0C to 875mb tonight but then drops to 900mb by 12z....though that's still 3,000-4,000ft and above for snow.  

GFS is warmer with the 0C isotherm getting down to 850-875mb at its coldest.  

I think it could whiten the high ridge lines in the Greens (3500ft+), but it could also be just -SN at 34F that struggles to stick even on the rocky summits.  

Without even looking, I'd assume the Whites and points east will have better UVM and thus some better possibilities of lowering the snow level through dynamics.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

We bump? Thumps and a bump? 

A pre-frontal trough enters western New England early afternoon
Thursday, followed by a cold front late in the day. The airmass
destabilizes at this time with Totals 50-54 and CAPE near or a
little above 1000 J/Kg.  Expect scattered afternoon
showers/thunderbumpers Thursday, primarily in the interior.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Yep. I think Kevin is right.  BDL will be 90+...

Yeah I was just given you schit but it's true - the MOS products will tend to slope toward climo beyond D3 pretty steeply.  By the time one gets to day 5, if they're looking at 15+ F spreads between climo and the product numbers ...it's probably more important/telling to consider the air mass/governing circumstances, more so than what those numbers are actually saying.  

I've been eyeing this for some time and agree - in fact ..I'd go so far as to say it has a corrective look about it.  Like, we get whiplashed in the other direction and put up a couple back-to-back 15 to 20+ers spanning a couple days ..if nothing else just to (haha) hide the misery of the last 10 days. But definitely to chap Steve's azz. 

Kidding of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if the four majors aren't nearly as absurdly negative on the month, say week from this Monday. 

Looks like about three solid days of positive departures, two of which could go big because that overnight Wed and Thur nights look pretty elevated to me after sporting perhaps an average of 86 Wed then 91 or 92 Thursday.   Interesting...  But then, we have a pretty sharp cold front that's been permanent fixture in the Friday time frame since that day came into any longer range product.  It's typical - also - at this time of year for anyone along and N of the 40th parallel (E of say ORD) to not get that 4th and 5th day in the positive departure air mass, because any tom-dink-and-hairy dent in the height fields up near Dead Horse tends to send a wedge underneath the northern rim of the positive southern anomaly.  It sort of like cheats that way...with high heights in a cold low troposphere - well, relatively cold.  I don't think the cool down will be anything like what we've had since winter turned the corner. More like going back to seasonal, which will be pretty much gem weather.  Seasonality in May, with the sun is top 10 stuff - in essence, summer flips the script this week. 

 

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BrianW

BrianW

Posted
Posted

NWS Boston bumped it to 90.

  


Thursday...

A mid summer-like day appears to be in the cards for much of the
region. A very mild start with 850T around +16C coupled with
southwest flow should yield a very warm to hot afternoon. High
temperatures will likely reach near 90 away from a modified marine
airmass across portions of RI/SE MA and especially the Cape/Islands.
Dry weather will dominate Thu as forcing will be limited, but can
not rule out the low risk for a few afternoon/evening T-storms on
a pre-frontal trough.

 

 

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