Model Mehham

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Basically it's a question of several days of 45 and rain vs 52-62 (sorry tolland hills about 52) and self destructive sun. Is the alternate that much better? Personally I'm fine with it. Let summer come in summer. Get the yard and plants well watered and established.

The 18z GFS keeps the ULL around through day 10, ending up in the Gulf of Maine as yet another closed 500mb low enters the TN Valley. The current system almost moves into a 50/50 position, reinforcing the block. Meanwhile another major rain maker cuts across the Deep South with aim on the East coast around mid-month, trying to cut off again. It's almost a nightmare scenario verbatim for warm weather enthusiasts in the Northeast.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

lol

You're wrong. Compare the past 5 runs. Gradual filing and less impactful each run 

[OceanStWx]

7 hours ago, tamarack said:

I'd go with Oct. 11 because of its much wider extent and for really deep snowfall - SoPA to central Maine were whitened, and lots of SNE-West up thru mid NH had 20"+.

I mean it's an all timer (for any time of year) at CON. That's pretty special.

[OceanStWx]

I mean I think the tendency is for these upper lows to show more QPF than what actually verifies, but that's not to say that the modeled look is a few days in the 60s and nothing to worry about.

And there is a difference between 60s and dodging rain in a stale air mass, and 60s sunny and dry.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You're wrong. Compare the past 5 runs. Gradual filing and less impactful each run 

No you were wrong all week ,the trough axis is not in the upper great lakes. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z GFS keeps the ULL around through day 10, ending up in the Gulf of Maine as yet another closed 500mb low enters the TN Valley. The current system almost moves into a 50/50 position, reinforcing the block. Meanwhile another major rain maker cuts across the Deep South with aim on the East coast around mid-month, trying to cut off again. It's "almost" a nightmare scenario verbatim for warm weather enthusiasts in the Northeast.

?  .. 

wow. 

if this is almost - what IS the nightmare scenario?   ...I guess a comet impact ending it all might be worse, sure. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's ironic that we just had a discussion sequence last week regarding the effectiveness of NAO blocking on modulating temperatures in May. -Right, no effect eh?

It's hard to imagine how that presently, hugely agreed upon monster block retrograding across the north Atlantic Basin toward Davis straight, and the subtended negative anomalies that are more than merely figuratively targeted right on top of the Northeast and SE Canada (I'd almost go so far as to say 'targeting SNE its self'), are not physically and directly caused by that whole synoptic evolution with that block - particularly when it perfectly satisfies L/W construct arguments.   This is like that whole debate about having reality in one hand ...then, choosing fake news in the other (if you think those are not connected).  

Yet, we go to the re-analysis pages and they keep churning out no or vague correlations ...depending on the parameters used (that may be part of it). There could be other reasons why those products don't seem to reflect this sort of actually happening events

Again, those products provide very course/linear A--> B correlations that quite proficiently mask circumstance.  Like, ...as we later discussed, a -4 SD NAO is probably sufficient in magnitude to alter/force anomaly distribution around our ~ latitude and longitude (west -vs- east based NAO, notwithstanding). However, in May, it may just be a function of changing waves lengths, and say ... -2 SD events not being sufficiently massive for the same forcing a -2 SD would have in January.  blah blah ...no need to re-iterate the whole course...   

It's just that it is amazing how we had that discussion and then literally the next week an exact super-position of those facets over actual synoptic evolution is modeled to occur in real space and time.  I don't see much evidence that the PNA is handling the expected cool month alone.  It'll be interesting to see how negative we can get. 

I had a tinge of frost at my place this morning when I left for the office at around 6:30 ... Yesterday I speculated that the temp may hold up around 40 with green-up underway but...heh, it may have frosted and held up anyway - an atonement to how planetary physics are just hell-bent on thefting one of our warm months away entirely... 

Which is hyperbole for the reading impaired... Still, I was musing on the way to work how we try to fit March into the winter months in our local social media vernacular..  If we are being fair (which lets face it, we're not - ) we should adopt the same principle and call May a warm month ...It's just that like March, some years these months are no shows.  This May in the guidance/tenors et al is like knowing the Bernie Madoff of climate is coming and being powerless to stop it.  

 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

?  .. 

wow. 

if this is almost - what IS the nightmare scenario?   ...I guess a comet impact ending it all might be worse, sure. 

 

Glad we didn't install

[Damage In Tolland]

Pretty colors at 500 FTL

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty colors at 500 FTL

lol...try to twist those maps into something warm and pleasant.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol...try to twist those maps into something warm and pleasant.

I did laugh at his comment. Good one. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I did laugh at his comment. Good one. 

He's acting like it's May 05 again. A few days of sunny mornings and pm cu buildup and scattered showers and 50's isn't end of world stuff

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He's acting like it's May 05 again. A few days of sunny mornings and pm cu buildup and scattered showers and 50's isn't end of world stuff

That's debatable. It could be an overall long period of crappy weather. 3 hrs of sun when max temps are at 11am and then fall all afternoon under ocnl shwrs don't really do it for me. May 2005 was not bad every day, but it was known to be a lousy month which probably was remembered due to ****ty memorial weekend.

[tamarack]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's debatable. It could be an overall long period of crappy weather. 3 hrs of sun when max temps are at 11am and then fall all afternoon under ocnl shwrs don't really do it for me. May 2005 was not bad every day, but it was known to be a lousy month which probably was remembered due to ****ty memorial weekend.

More than just that weekend.  I recorded 25 days with rain that month, 23 with measurable, and 9 days which failed to get above 50, all with rain.  The 8.20" precip was just over twice my May avg.

The 18z GFS keeps the ULL around through day 10, ending up in the Gulf of Maine as yet another closed 500mb low enters the TN Valley. The current system almost moves into a 50/50 position, reinforcing the block. Meanwhile another major rain maker cuts across the Deep South with aim on the East coast around mid-month, trying to cut off again. It's almost a nightmare scenario verbatim for warm weather enthusiasts in the Northeast.

Floods on the Ramapo, and Pompton/Passaic?

[NJwx85]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's debatable. It could be an overall long period of crappy weather. 3 hrs of sun when max temps are at 11am and then fall all afternoon under ocnl shwrs don't really do it for me. May 2005 was not bad every day, but it was known to be a lousy month which probably was remembered due to ****ty memorial weekend.

Kevin seems to be ignoring the fact that once the first ULL moves away, another one moves in behind it. The 12z GEFS agrees, and not only that, look at the way its been trending.

[NJwx85]

The GEFS mean keeps a mean trough in the East through almost May 20th. That's not to say that it's going to be well below average temperature wise or rainy the entire period, but it will keep the recent streak of warm anomalies in check. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

More than just that weekend.  I recorded 25 days with rain that month, 23 with measurable, and 9 days which failed to get above 50, all with rain.  The 8.20" precip was just over twice my May avg.

The 18z GFS keeps the ULL around through day 10, ending up in the Gulf of Maine as yet another closed 500mb low enters the TN Valley. The current system almost moves into a 50/50 position, reinforcing the block. Meanwhile another major rain maker cuts across the Deep South with aim on the East coast around mid-month, trying to cut off again. It's almost a nightmare scenario verbatim for warm weather enthusiasts in the Northeast.

Floods on the Ramapo, and Pompton/Passaic?

Yeah I just meant that most people remember that month because it was highlighted by the unofficial start to summer having a nor'easter. That actually caused decent coastal flooding. My ex-girlfriend lived on the beach in the Green Harbor section of Marshfield. The waves were hitting the sea wall so hard, my drink on the coffee table was getting ripples in it. Like something from Jurrasic Park.

[ORH_wxman]

The easiest way to summarize the next 2 weeks is that the upside is limited...your upside in this pattern is like a 66F sunny day sandwiched around some cruddier days ...66 and sunny is admittedly pretty nice, but not necessarily your 70s to around 80 that many look for in May and it's unlikely to be a string of like 4+ days of that. The downside is pretty bad. Your downside in this pattern is like threatening record maxes with onshore flow for several days at a time. The reality will probably fall between those two, which is kind of crappy...yeah, probably not the worst we've seen, but below average with a lot of unsettled days.

 

I know Kevin hates probabilistic forecasting, but that's exactly what this ensemble suite tells us to do...spin a wheel that is loaded with far more crappy days than nice days. You'll prob get a nice day or two but you'll end up with more crappy ones and maybe even a few horrendous ones.

[NJwx85]

So much for the Euro backing off the ULL. At 192 hrs the ULL is centered over Albany, after spending almost all weekend and early next week rotating around Southern and Central New England. 

Lots of self destruct days and below freezing 850mb temps for the entire period. In fact next Tuesday -4 to -8C 850mb temps make it as far South as the Delmarva. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So much for the Euro backing off the ULL. At 192 hrs the ULL is centered over Albany, after spending almost all weekend and early next week rotating around Southern and Central New England. 

Lots of self destruct days and below freezing 850mb temps for the entire period. In fact next Tuesday -4 to -8C 850mb temps make it as far South as the Delmarva. 

That's an ugly look for sure. The real Uzi in the throat is whether or not that ULL sinks far enough south to either develop low pressure SE of ACK, or swing some sort of a TROWAL of **** over is like the op does.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's an ugly look for sure. The real Uzi in the throat is whether or not that ULL sinks far enough south to either develop low pressure SE of ACK, or swing some sort of a TROWAL of **** over is like the op does.

Yeah right now it looks like that might be confined to North of Boston, but if the ULL ends up closer to the mid-Atlantic rather than NYC it could get wetter for sure.

[CoastalWx]

That is a Wheel of 'Rhea for sure.

[forkyfork]

after may 05 this happened: 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a Wheel of 'Rhea for sure.

I think we'd prob get flakage out of that...at least in some of the elevated interior.

[NJwx85]

The 12z EPS mean more or less stalls the ULL directly over Central New England as a ridge builds near Hudson Bay around day 6 and attempts to hook up with the building ridge over the Rockies. 

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

after may 05 this happened: 

We're due for a shiat May and torch June.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We're due for a shiat May and torch June.

Haven't had a good torch June since 2010....2014 was pretty warm, but probably a step below torch status as it was around +1.

[NJwx85]

It's amazing how each time it appears the ULL is getting ready to move out on the EPS it just keeps reloading. 

In any event, temperatures look well below normal for at least the next ten days, possibly longer. 

[NJwx85]

The EPS mean really hits Eastern New England with lots of wet weather days 5-10. About another 1-2" of rain from Hartford North and East.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's not going to pan out like that lol. Meteorology, not modelology