Model Mehham

[Typhoon Tip]

definitely game of inches this time of year...  

well, KMs for the purposes of  Meteorology.. The EPS has that rough axis too far E and implies we could even be fair conditions albeit chilly during the duration the operational version has us flirting with history.  

the other thing is that it cold rains around the edges of these sorts of things in the spring, and particularly that will be true in late spring at that.  Greens on rad ptypes with like two or three blue blobs that blink on and off amid the core of the shield ... where the valleys are smearing cat paws while 1,000 feet up is losing power. 

point being despite the look things have to align pretty elegantly to server -

[HoarfrostHubb]

Was the early 2000s (I always forget) May snow event (2004? 2002?) mostly during evening hours?

I have early memories of May 1977 at my parent's house in Foxboro with snow during the day.  I think they even released us early from school  Kevin would have been in heaven with all of the limbs and trees coming down.

I have wondered which was more anomalous - May 1977 or October 2011.  I'm leaning towards October.

The GFS has just been pure depression as Tip and Will mentioned.  The gyre of misery punctuated by glimmers of hope that get dashed.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Was the early 2000s (I always forget) May snow event (2004? 2002?) mostly during evening hours?

I have early memories of May 1977 at my parent's house in Foxboro with snow during the day.  I think they even released us early from school  Kevin would have been in heaven with all of the limbs and trees coming down.

I have wondered which was more anomalous - May 1977 or October 2011.  I'm leaning towards October.

The GFS has just been pure depression as Tip and Will mentioned.  The gyre of misery punctuated by glimmers of hope that get dashed.

There was May 18, 2002..but it was the morning and not evening.

 

We also had snow on May 6, 1996 I vividly remember but not much accumulation except a little bit on the mulch beds for a brief time.

 

And of course who could forget May 25, 2013...mostly to our north but we did get a few stray flakes down into SNE late that night.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I have wondered which was more anomalous - May 1977 or October 2011.  I'm leaning towards October.

 

This is actually really close IMHO. I'd prob lean toward October too...but not by a lot. I mean, 1977 was 9-10 days into the month, that's getting really late to get amounts over a foot (and even 20 inches in spots). But 2011 was so prolific that I have to give the nod to it...I'd prob reconsider if Oct 2011 was more like a widespread 8-12" event instead of 1-2 feet over much of the interior.

[HoarfrostHubb]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was May 18, 2002..but it was the morning and not evening.

 

We also had snow on May 6, 1996 I vividly remember but not much accumulation except a little bit on the mulch beds for a brief time.

 

And of course who could forget May 25, 2013...mostly to our north but we did get a few stray flakes down into SNE late that night.

Yup.  The 2013 event was pretty amazing for even the picnic tables. 

One reason I'm thinking that October might be stranger is the ocean in May is still pretty cold, while in October, Ginxy is still bodysurfing

[CoastalWx]

I remember may 96 as well. I think we had catpaws, but iirc...there were reports of snow even near south coast with heavier echoes there.

[Typhoon Tip]

This 12z GFS looks similar to the 00z EPS ...it actually manages to progress the trough enough E of us to give us some fragmented improvement by day 6.5

[Damage In Tolland]

Def have been moving towards a better wx outcome next week. Pretty soon it'll just be a few days of low 60's. No big deal 

[Typhoon Tip]

well... it's a very tentative trend...

I'd still count on extra dose of ZANAX for now - we'll see...

[CoastalWx]

Lol. A few days of low 60s.

[NJwx85]

Mt. Tolland JP

[CoastalWx]

That's a Ginxy jacky there.

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a Ginxy jacky there.

yea i saw that and was yea thanks no thanks, drunk uncle be drunk

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ...certainly fun discussion about possibilities but...  I guess there's a trend to ever so slowly normalize the extent of the anomalies, though, as we pass through the time frames in question (day 5 to 9 ish). There seems to be a 1.1 back off then .9 back on type of trend over consecutive cycles ... painfully slowly. 

 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is actually really close IMHO. I'd prob lean toward October too...but not by a lot. I mean, 1977 was 9-10 days into the month, that's getting really late to get amounts over a foot (and even 20 inches in spots). But 2011 was so prolific that I have to give the nod to it...I'd prob reconsider if Oct 2011 was more like a widespread 8-12" event instead of 1-2 feet over much of the interior.

I'd go with Oct. 11 because of its much wider extent and for really deep snowfall - SoPA to central Maine were whitened, and lots of SNE-West up thru mid NH had 20"+.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ...certainly fun discussion about possibilities but...  I guess there's a trend to ever so slowly normalize the extent of the anomalies, though, as we pass through the time frames in question (day 5 to 9 ish). There seems to be a 1.1 back off then .9 back on type of trend over consecutive cycles ... painfully slowly. 

 

As we so often have seen over the years, that's typically how it plays out when you see really anomalous solutions past day 5 or so...the "revision to climo" type mask on top of the original solution tends to win out. It's all pretty crappy weather to me, so I just hope for the most exciting solution rather than to try and salvage  63F high with self-destructing sun and scattered showers sandwiched around an awful day.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As we so often have seen over the years, that's typically how it plays out when you see really anomalous solutions past day 5 or so...the "revision to climo" type mask on top of the original solution tends to win out. It's all pretty crappy weather to me, so I just hope for the most exciting solution rather than to try and salvage  63F high with self-destructing sun and scattered showers sandwiched around an awful day.

mm to be honest I was kind of hoping for some snow and a historic job- I admit. 

As much as I have my druthers for spring and summer to go the other way, I'm also not numb - that would be pretty f amazing.  

[forkyfork]

if this euro run were translated to february we'd be looking at 2-4 feet of snow in a week

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro continues the back off

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro continues the back off

on what? 

[NJwx85]

The trend all day has been to slow down the progression of the trough. And by Saturday another strong shortwave is dropping down from Canada to reinforce the ULL. Highly doubt this ends up as optimistic as Kevin is depicting. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

on what? 

The cold and length and strength of ULLnext week 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The cold and length and strength of ULLnext week 

lol

[Ginx snewx]

we hope and pray for gypsy freeze

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

lol

 

[Typhoon Tip]

green ups pretty far along S of roughly RUT-CON ... I'm interested in if temperatures slam to a halt at 40 .. . It's not like dry top soil and brown grass ..circa the end of March anymore.  The air smells of plant life now. hm

[NJwx85]

On the 12z EPS mean the ULL finally is absorbed around day 10 with no real signs of a rebound until after May 15th.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

On the 12z EPS mean the ULL finally is absorbed around day 10 with no real signs of a rebound until after May 15th.

This run trended cooler in the east. 

 

People also need to understand the behavior of this. It's not about the pretty blues 20,000' up..it's also how it drops south. You can have a "weak" ULL south of us, but if it stalls and generates low pressure...forget it. It's not as easy as saying "ooh look...it's one shade less dark!!!"

[NJwx85]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This run trended cooler in the east. 

 

People also need to understand the behavior of this. It's not about the pretty blues 20,000' up..it's also how it drops south. You can have a "weak" ULL south of us, but if it stalls and generates low pressure...forget it. It's not as easy as saying "ooh look...it's one shade less dark!!!"

Agreed.

And the run to run nuances regarding the different spokes of energy and shortwaves pinwheeling around the upper low certainly lead to a low confidence forecast. 

Long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of another closed low in nearly the same position around day 10, so I certainly wouldn't be forecasting a ridge to return to the East anytime soon.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Agreed.

And the run to run nuances regarding the different spokes of energy and shortwaves pinwheeling around the upper low certainly lead to a low confidence forecast. 

Long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of another closed low in nearly the same position around day 10, so I certainly wouldn't be forecasting a ridge to return to the East anytime soon.

Basically it's a question of several days of 45 and rain vs 52-62 (sorry tolland hills about 52) and self destructive sun. Is the alternate that much better? Personally I'm fine with it. Let summer come in summer. Get the yard and plants well watered and established.