SnowHole413 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 10:59 PM, ineedsnow said: 18 gfs is pure porn in the long range Expand dam nice cane lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 10:59 PM, ineedsnow said: 18 gfs is pure porn in the long range Expand Unusual at this early point in July to have a strong tropical system form off the coast of Africa and so near the equator, let alone be progged by the GFS to hit SE and NE coasts. It will probably be ots on the 00z, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 10:59 PM, ineedsnow said: 18 gfs is pure porn in the long range Expand it is ... if you like death and destruction. that's about a 12" of rain with twister swarms, amid 60 mph routine wind gusting clear to the Monadnocks... None of that statement is hyperbole in that solution.. Thanksfully, it doesn't make sense for about 10 difference reasons - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 11:18 PM, 78Blizzard said: Unusual at this early point in July to have a strong tropical system form off the coast of Africa and so near the equator, let alone be progged by the GFS to hit SE and NE coasts. It will probably be ots on the 00z, lol. Expand The last 3 runs have brought it up here in some way.. Very unusual and has probably a 1 percent chance of happening..... but fun to look at lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 18z gefs are anywhere from texas to the northeast still a long way to go.... Something to watch in this boring pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 BTW, the GFS among the major globals is all alone with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 GFS is the new GGEM trop gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 1:45 AM, Ginx snewx said: GFS is the new GGEM trop gone wild Expand Old Yeller treatment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 11:27 PM, ineedsnow said: 18z gefs are anywhere from texas to the northeast still a long way to go.... Something to watch in this boring pattern... Expand James, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 There is an absolute black hole near the Davis Straits modeled. That is super impressive. It's basically a massive polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 9:49 AM, CoastalWx said: There is an absolute black hole near the Davis Straits modeled. That is super impressive. It's basically a massive polar vortex. Expand Would cause some anger in winter I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 10:00 AM, weathafella said: Would cause some anger in winter I suspect. Expand It seems highly anomalous. Not sure the reason for it. Very chilly in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 You're better off tracking a d7 NAM thunderstorm than a d12 GFS cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 10:02 AM, CoastalWx said: It seems highly anomalous. Not sure the reason for it. Very chilly in Canada. Expand Seems to be causing perpetual bagginess in the height fields over northeastern US....every day I've been looking at the 8-10 day or 10-15 day means and they all look the same going forward. Ridge in the west to upper midwest and then sort of WNW flow in the means over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 4:09 PM, powderfreak said: Seems to be causing perpetual bagginess in the height fields over northeastern US....every day I've been looking at the 8-10 day or 10-15 day means and they all look the same going forward. Ridge in the west to upper midwest and then sort of WNW flow in the means over us. Expand Yep. As long as that ridge stays there, it will be tough to get prolonged heat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 4:09 PM, powderfreak said: Seems to be causing perpetual bagginess in the height fields over northeastern US....every day I've been looking at the 8-10 day or 10-15 day means and they all look the same going forward. Ridge in the west to upper midwest and then sort of WNW flow in the means over us. Expand Like a nice set that was always up and perky, but after years of use, just D batteries dusting the floors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 12z GFS trop at 384 would have the SNE cane chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 5:21 PM, yoda said: 12z GFS trop at 384 would have the SNE cane chasing Expand Nice cold shots the 2nd half of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 4:09 PM, powderfreak said: Seems to be causing perpetual bagginess in the height fields over northeastern US....every day I've been looking at the 8-10 day or 10-15 day means and they all look the same going forward. Ridge in the west to upper midwest and then sort of WNW flow in the means over us. Expand Not that anyone asked... but, I've noticed that both the Atlantic and Pacific Basins (N of the Equa.) are sustaining an SST tri-pole in the distribution of anomalies. I don't know if that is sea-surface stressing from wind anomalies causing that, but, having that look so evident in the ides of theoretical neutral gradient (atmospheric pressure) times of the year, doesn't lend to wind causing that. Yet it's there... The impetus is that tri poles in the Atlantic are correlated significantly with -NAO phase states. I'm wondering if the same should hold true in the far North Pac over the Alaskan sector ...with the EPO... which covers a similar domain space just located over there as opposed to the NAO over here. Seems to fit ...as the flow being "tipped" NW through Canada is like a weak sauce perpetuation of a winter signal ...transposed over a summer gradient perhaps. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 5:23 PM, dendrite said: Nice cold shots the 2nd half of the run. Expand 850 only 2C at FVE in mid July? Seeing would be believing. (I did record a frost in Ft. Kent on 7/31/78, but with perfect rad cooling in a drought, I doubt that 850s were that low.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 'Course ...there's another school of wisdom based on experience in dealing with the GFS: it usually tries to sell us its coldest run(s) at just about the times the teleconnectors flip the other way not sure why it does that. But .. it may be something to do with correction schemes to stop wild permutations out in time - I've read the Euro's 4-D variable system intrinsically does something similar. Not sure 'bout the GFS system though. In any event, the PNA is falling precipitously at CPC, which is the more important agency of the two during summer months. It looks to be less that 0 SD by D8 or 9... at which time the NAO has been sustaining a positive regime. That combination has been signaled now for ~ 4 days worth of nightly computations so it may have legs; and it is certainly the opposite of a cold look. I'd say the GEFs signal is leading the operational mean by perhaps 3 to 4 days. Here's the catch: as we've noted in the recent past ... getting these warm signals successfully relayed from extended into middle ranges has not been a successful parlay thus far this summer. It's one of the reasons why I haven't brought it up with the CPC numbers ... I figure the onus is on it to be consistent. Seems to be... Perhaps this trough thing in eastern Canada is like the proverbial bottom out before the R-wave replacement/paradigm shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 this would be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Looks "Mcsessy" with deep heat interface near by while unusually strong 500 mb WNW flow aligns immediately astride over the eastern Lakes. .... Probably dive to the right at ALB to make sure the insufferable complainers in the local forum get to validate their whining - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 10:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Looks "Mcsessy" with deep heat interface near by while unusually strong 500 mb WNW flow aligns immediately astride over the eastern Lakes. .... Probably dive to the right at ALB to make sure the insufferable complainers in the local forum get to validate their whining - Expand meteotsunami down the hudson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 10:20 PM, forkyfork said: meteotsunami down the hudson? Expand zactly .. while it 62 F with light ENE flow and drizzle tickling rage into the Boston cheeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Been waiting for my derecho for about 20 years now. Getting impatient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 10:53 PM, eekuasepinniW said: Been waiting for my derecho for about 20 years now. Getting impatient. Expand Almost 20 years ago now: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul4-51999page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 10:53 PM, eekuasepinniW said: Been waiting for my derecho for about 20 years now. Getting impatient. Expand You're due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 On 7/10/2017 at 11:01 PM, OceanStWx said: Almost 20 years ago now: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul4-51999page.htm Expand Almost makes me sad that I wasn't awake to know it was missing to the north. I could have worked up quite the frothy rage. On 7/10/2017 at 11:26 PM, Hoosier said: You're due! Expand I need a summer home around FYV. Those people probably don't even know how good they have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 On 7/11/2017 at 12:08 AM, eekuasepinniW said: Almost makes me sad that I wasn't awake to know it was missing to the north. I could have worked up quite the frothy rage. I need a summer home around FYV. Those people probably don't even know how good they have it. Expand You had to have done okay on 7/6/99. The Lakes Region got slammed. Moultonborough had a pretty nasty microburst. What a 4th of July week that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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