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  On 5/31/2017 at 6:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

The euro is probably one of the worst things I've ever seen for next week.

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Yea it's bad. I'm hoping we can get something exciting out of it---a subtropical storm/hybrid of sorts. The blocking is recurve/capture worthy... Tomorrow begins early June but the UL pattern looks like early March. Maybe we can get a subtropical system to develop off the SE coast around hr 144 when that UL jet is collocated with the Gulf Stream off the SE coast...These anomalous patterns tend to end with a bang....One can hope right? 

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  On 5/31/2017 at 7:31 PM, jbenedet said:

Yea it's bad. I'm hoping we can get something exciting out of it---a subtropical storm/hybrid of sorts. The blocking is recurve/capture worthy... Tomorrow begins early June but the UL pattern looks like early March. Maybe we can get a subtropical system to develop off the SE coast around hr 144 when that UL jet is collocated with the Gulf Stream off the SE coast...These anomalous patterns tend to end with a bang....One can hope right? 

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That's what I was thinking..  

I mean at some point you gotta wonder if the troposphere can't take it just flips over - jesus christ what weird thing has become...  It's like engineering cold pattern. 

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  On 5/31/2017 at 9:31 PM, weathafella said:

Pretty normal but this year has been brutal!

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I'd say that is a fair assessment with all four major climate sites destined to pull a solid negative May outta their azzes ... which actually, should be underscored because much to the nay-sayer chagrins, it is harder now than ever before to rack up a negative month. 

But, I've been beating multiple drums in that regard and it seems to fail any discussion start so I won't bother - ha!   the life and times amid a weird winter season co-dependency support group.   J/k. ... 

The longer range mass signals have been hitting at a warm June but I suspect like is usually the case... a visceral pattern change is out there and we'll have to be dinking around with models putting it off for a few -

 

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anyway ... it's just my opinion but the Euro takes the western book-end of the vestigial geopotential weakness over SE-S Canada and BOOM!  out of no where and deriving the momentum/mechanics from no apparent source manages to close off and deepen it some -3 SD as it presses toward Ohio from D5 into D6...

Nope.  Not happening.

That's a pretty clear incarnation of the Euro's old bias around SE Canada and the NE U.S., to amp troughs too deeply - a bias that imho was never completely eradicated across upgrades, and it is times like these that betray it for that subtle tendency.  My guess is that anomaly should correct shallower in future guidance. \

Doesn't mean the weather will be 'summery' ...but I suggest that over all look is over cooked.

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  On 6/1/2017 at 12:15 PM, jbenedet said:

No disagreement there. But this pattern has been exceptional in that it has encompassed all of the northeast and most of the Mid Atlantic. 

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  Oh yeah, some years are worse than others. But still, when looking at average highs this time of year....it sure doesn't scream speedos and swimming pools quite yet. I will say this May is up there with some of the Mays from the 00s. The 00s had some very cold Springs here. If you take out the random 3 warm days we had a couple of weeks ago...it was a dam chilly month. 

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  On 6/1/2017 at 12:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

  Oh yeah, some years are worse than others. But still, when looking at average highs this time of year....it sure doesn't scream speedos and swimming pools quite yet. I will say this May is up there with some of the Mays from the 00s. The 00s had some very cold Springs here. If you take out the random 3 warm days we had a couple of weeks ago...it was a dam chilly month. 

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Agreed. 

Its a catch-22 of sorts. We're in good company but there has been no easy way to escape it, outside of some threading the needle within New England itself. I was supposed to head to the Hamptons this past wknd but stayed in NH bc the weather was worse (in some cases much worse) down there...

You'd have to go south of ACY to find some summer type weather and even that's been dicey...

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