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Model Mehham

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

that is a stretch less than .01 qpf temps in the mid 30s

looks like a potent vortmax moving through though despite the QPF output 

I wouldn't be that surprised to see flakes one more time .. of course any accumulation is a whole different animal. There have been some interesting looking Op GFS weenie runs the past couple days in the extended ( day 7+). Just for entertainment sake, there was a region wide snowstorm on the 0z GFS a couple nights back at the end of the run (for like 4/28). 

Who knows .. maybe we are due for a late spring snow? Seems like there is a pattern with years ending in 7 (notwithstanding 2007) .. 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997 .. 

Although its probably all moot and we end up with a cutoff low off shore with days of misery mist and onshore flow .. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

looks like a potent vortmax moving through though despite the QPF output 

I wouldn't be that surprised to see flakes one more time .. of course any accumulation is a whole different animal. There have been some interesting looking Op GFS weenie runs the past couple days in the extended ( day 7+). Just for entertainment sake, there was a region wide snowstorm on the 0z GFS a couple nights back at the end of the run (for like 4/28). 

Who knows .. maybe we are due for a late spring snow? Seems like there is a pattern with years ending in 7 (notwithstanding 2007) .. 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997 .. 

Although its probably all moot and we end up with a cutoff low off shore with days of misery mist and onshore flow .. 

If you look back in years that went nina to stronger nino..the springs featured wild fluctuations from big heat to late season snow events. In fact, I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think the May 77 storm was one of those years.

My guess is we'll have something to track over the next 3 weeks. Probably ends up nothing, but weenies will rise from some model runs

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
On 4/11/2017 at 4:19 PM, ajisai said:

How are long term trends looking for warmth?

Not that good, from a purely teleconnector inference...  Not sure if you know what those are, but they are statistical correlations that links one region of the planet with another.   

For example higher or lower atmospheric heights over Greenland often finds a counter status over the eastern seaboard of the U.S.   There are teleconnector domain spaces all over the world, and they dance ... pulsing up and down, some over time spans of mere days, ..others taking longer to pass from one phase to the other.  And everyone's correlation is thus changing in time.  

The models use numerous ensemble members; these are variations of the operational model version, with slightly perturbed physics/researched parameters.  Together (em masse) their output is used to assess what the teleconnector modes will be out in time. From there, the savvy users that know what these correlations are may use them to influence their decision making wrt to operational and/or blended guidance in general.  

In this case, the GEFs ensemble system is arguing for a robust +PNA/-NAO tandem phase state. Either are cold and stormy in their own rites ...for regions of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, NE and SE Canada; but here, they are doing this at the same time.  If that were not enough, preceding the rise in the PNA is a -EPO, which is a cold delivery signal into western and central Canada.  In total that is bad for warm enthusiasts.  It may signal a relay from a -EPO into a +PNA, which is about perfect of grabbing annoying chilly air and jamming it south.  

In the middle of winter I'd be telling people look out!  ...not sure about mid to late April tho. The seasonal wave length shortening tends to muck with the correlations outlined above. There's that, and the sun really does obliterate cold thickness as an obvious offset.  Still... my bet is that we may have to deal with some sort of cool departure period sometime out there before the end of the month.. There is no way to know specifically when, ...and sometimes tele signals don't pan out, either due to nuances in the layout of their specific anomaly distributions. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah... Pope said no yesterday . Said it's Napril so we can't get them 

On 4/11/2017 at 10:33 AM, jbenedet said:

Not going to get air mass severe t storms anywhere in NE with that air mass in place. Keep in mind it's early April. Don't have the CAPE. 

Isolated strong maybe; severe no. 

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ajisai

ajisai

Posted
Posted
Not that good, from a purely teleconnector inference...  Not sure if you know what those are, but they are statistical correlations that links one region of the planet with another.   

For example higher or lower atmospheric heights over Greenland often finds a counter status over the eastern seaboard of the U.S.   There are teleconnector domain spaces all over the world, and they dance ... pulsing up and down, some over time spans of mere days, ..others taking longer to pass from one phase to the other.  And everyone's correlation is thus changing in time.  

The models use numerous ensemble members; these are variations of the operational model version, with slightly perturbed physics/researched parameters.  Together (em masse) their output is used to assess what the teleconnector modes will be out in time. From there, the savvy users that know what these correlations are may use them to influence their decision making wrt to operational and/or blended guidance in general.  

In this case, the GEFs ensemble system is arguing for a robust +PNA/-NAO tandem phase state. Either are cold and stormy in their own rites ...for regions of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, NE and SE Canada; but here, they are doing this at the same time.  If that were not enough, preceding the rise in the PNA is a -EPO, which is a cold delivery signal into western and central Canada.  In total that is bad for warm enthusiasts.  It may signal a relay from a -EPO into a +PNA, which is about perfect of grabbing annoying chilly air and jamming it south.  

In the middle of winter I'd be telling people look out!  ...not sure about mid to late April tho. The seasonal wave length shortening tends to muck with the correlations outlined above. There's that, and the sun really does obliterate cold thickness as an obvious offset.  Still... my bet is that we may have to deal with some sort of cool departure period sometime out there before the end of the month.. There is no way to know specifically when, ...and sometimes tele signals don't pan out, either due to nuances in the layout of their specific anomaly distributions. 


Wow, learned a lot. Probably the most in a while! Thanks!! Great writeup
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