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April 9-10 Severe Potential


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mcd0477.gif.07f1f2ab28d10a05eb5524c773c1e2c4.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of IL...extreme east-central
   MO...IN...southern WI...southwest Lower MI...southern Lake MI...far
   western OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138...

   Valid 102025Z - 102230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms continues across Watch
   138. An isolated severe risk may extend farther south, though
   additional watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to develop
   near a front from far south-central WI southward to west-central IL
   and into east-central MO. The greatest coverage of this activity
   lies within western portions of Watch 138, in proximity to the
   strongest deep ascent, and will continue tracking
   east-northeastward.

   Surface-based convection encountering the strongest buoyancy will
   extend across northern parts of central IL east-northeastward into
   northwest Indiana -- characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE aided
   by a narrow corridor of dewpoints around 60F ahead of the front
   beneath 8.0-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Semi-discrete cells
   evolving near and south-southwest of the Peoria area will ingest
   this stronger buoyancy and likely be the most intense across the
   Watch area -- from the general area around Peoria east-northeastward
   toward the Pontiac area and farther east-northeast toward the far
   south suburbs of Chicago and adjacent far northwest Indiana. With
   effective shear around 45-55 kt, supercell structures will remain
   possible. The Lincoln IL VAD wind profile indicates slight veering
   of winds with height above the ground, though with ample low-level
   speed shear, supporting around 200-250 m2/s2 of 0-1-km SRH. An
   isolated tornado could occur with the most intense storms, though
   large hail and damaging winds should be the primary risk. Otherwise,
   the risk for severe hail and locally damaging winds will continue
   spreading across Watch 138, with the severe risk diminishing west of
   the front.

   South of Watch 138 near the front, storm coverage should remain more
   isolated owing to weaker deep ascent, though an isolated severe
   hail/wind risk may evolve from the Saint Louis vicinity into
   southern parts of central IL. Convective coverage is presently
   forecast to remain too limited for additional watch issuance. Also
   south of Watch 138, from east-central IL into central IN, a separate
   quasi-linear band of convection is evolving, and will continue
   developing eastward/northeastward during the next several hours.
   This activity will be supported by gradually moistening inflow
   (surface dewpoints rising into the lower 50s) yielding weak
   buoyancy. Effective shear around 30-45 kt, combined with 30-40 kt of
   flow around 1-2 km above ground, may support semi-organized
   convective structures capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Weak
   buoyancy should minimize severe coverage such that additional watch
   issuance is unlikely.

   ..Cohen.. 04/10/2017
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Deviant storm motion seems to be enhancing the low level SRH into that Peoria storm, with a noticeable increase in inflow over recent scans. Would help if there was a bit more backing to the surface winds on the mesoscale though (i.e. have a stronger/deepening surface low).

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
408 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/10/2017 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...A brief and fast moving tornado developed in association with a
small line of severe thunderstorms in Marathon County. Straight-line wind damage
occurred with the severe thunderstorm in addition to the tornado.

.Tornado in the Walden Subdivision near Wausau...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    105 mph
Path length /Statute/:  0.5 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             Apr 10 2017
Start time:             12:54 AM CDT
Start location:         5.6 WSW Wausau WI

End date:               Apr 10 2017
End time:               12:55 AM CDT
End location:           5.1 WSW Wausau WI
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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I may be mistaken but I thought it was modeled to some extent.

maybe but I remember looking at the HRRR and it didn't fire convection til 19zish...

 

ILX picked it up 

UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017  
  
COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS  
TODAY. A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS,  
IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING.  
MOST GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG & JUST  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE CURRENT  
GUIDANCE HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION  
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI.
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND SLOWER  
WARMING RESULTING FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION CERTAINLY HAS THE  
POTENTIAL TO MINIMIZE THE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY

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Sorry, but I have to laugh at your expense stebo. Driving all over the Midwest and then having this occurring almost in you back yard.  Sounds like something that would happen to me.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
840 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

MIC067-081-110100-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170411T0100Z/
Kent MI-Ionia MI-
840 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHWESTERN IONIA COUNTIES...
        
At 839 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Freeport, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

 

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2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Sorry, but I have to laugh at your expense stebo. Driving all over the Midwest and then having this occurring almost in you back yard.  Sounds like something that would happen to me.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
840 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

MIC067-081-110100-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170411T0100Z/
Kent MI-Ionia MI-
840 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHWESTERN IONIA COUNTIES...
        
At 839 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Freeport, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

 

It's a kick in the pants, that said I wouldn't be out there right now, if I was in MI. I don't do night chases, just too dangerous with limited benefits. Unless it is something local where I know the area.

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