SchaumburgStormer Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Yes, and very unexpected! Here's a poor quality pic I snapped a few minutes after the hail started (no snow on the ground all hail) . It lasted 10 min I'm guessing. Bo winning with frozen precip no matter what season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 That complex from this morning worked over the atmosphere enough to disrupt the moisture return a bit. You can see with each update the HRRR has been slower to rebound the 60+ dews. This looks to focus the more robust convection south of I-80 initially. Looks like the better moisture/instability will make it up towards Chicago just in time for good severe chances up there. Best shot at tors initially looks to be in the Galesburg/Macomb/Peoria/Princeton box, and then expanding east/northeast from that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Just finished looking at some info, anyone else have the feeling today may get pretty interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 storms developing a couple of hours early it looks like before atmosphere can fully recover..unless its just some WAA...HRRR missing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 *dewpoint mixout alert* 75/49 at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: *dewpoint mixout alert* 75/49 at ORD the deeper moisture likely got shoved south from that complex outflow...should return north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: the deeper moisture likely got shoved south from that complex outflow...should return north I agree, the question really is to what extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 TOR probs lowered to 2% AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISKS... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARK-LA-TEX. ..MIDWEST WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM MI TO THE SAINT LOUIS AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CORES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MIDDAY ACTIVITY, SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO EMANATE OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY, NEAR/SOUTH OF A REFORMING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE DOWNSTREAM OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE. AS DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT, 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONFINED PLUME OF WEAK TO MODERATE MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEGREES C/KM FROM 700-500 MB. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST OWING TO VEERED FLOW, NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A MIX OF SPLITTING TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GROWING INTO AN MCS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MI TO LAKE HURON AREA. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 10, 2017 Author Share Posted April 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: TOR probs lowered to 2% AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISKS... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARK-LA-TEX. ..MIDWEST WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM MI TO THE SAINT LOUIS AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CORES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MIDDAY ACTIVITY, SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO EMANATE OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY, NEAR/SOUTH OF A REFORMING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE DOWNSTREAM OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE. AS DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT, 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONFINED PLUME OF WEAK TO MODERATE MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEGREES C/KM FROM 700-500 MB. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST OWING TO VEERED FLOW, NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A MIX OF SPLITTING TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GROWING INTO AN MCS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MI TO LAKE HURON AREA. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE. 15% wind area also expanded back east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 10, 2017 Author Share Posted April 10, 2017 Dew's already recovered here, back to 56 and increasing still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Cu west of Quincy starting to get a bit more frisky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Was hoping this stuff wouldn't go until 18-20z as I am still about 100 miles west of Hannibal Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Svr storm watch coming for ne Il per meso discussion....Stebo, I think you are fortunate to be on the south end of things if you keep driving east. Higher dews will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Everyone's giving up a bit too soon on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Svr storm watch coming for ne Il per meso discussion....Stebo, I think you are fortunate to be on the south end of things if you keep driving east. Higher dews will be there. Yeah been keeping an eye on that. I was going to go up 55 after I get into IL but I might just keep going east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 BTW, what a ****ing huge difference decent mid-level lapse rates make. Had this been 2014, this would have been another in a string of awful setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 The area of congestion near Quincy continues to look better. Prob not too far from taking off. Dews have reached into the 60-61 degree range out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Wonder if the better tornado threat (what threat there is) may be more toward the southern part of the 2% area. Moisture a little better and winds a little less veered, especially near/south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wonder if the better tornado threat (what threat there is) may be more toward the southern part of the 2% area. Moisture a little better and winds a little less veered, especially near/south of I-80. In agreement. Elevated cell west of Crawfordsville now svr warned once again. Dews up to 59/60 in St. Louis area moving ne. Also note new cells near PIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Hoosier, you may soon have a hailer coming your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 clearing skies over central IL winds still backed south to SSW 69/59 here at PIA warm into the low 70's in the next hour or two 73/63 at UIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Some pretty nice towers boiling up to the west/northwest here at the house. 68/58 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Hoosier, you may soon have a hailer coming your way. Sky darkening to my west/northwest. May just miss based on current trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Some pretty nice towers boiling up to the west/northwest here at the house. 68/58 here. Yeah I see a bunch off to my NE to SE I'm about 20 miles from the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah I see a bunch off to my NE to SE I'm about 20 miles from the river Yep, she's taking off now. Tops already pushing 40kft northeast of Quincy. Dews are now up into the 62-63 range out ahead of that. EDIT: Think it's about time for that watch to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Macomb Il 71/62 with sw gusts to 30 mph and a cell popping near there which is an area I would watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 11 PM EDT/10 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 The lead cell west of Farmington is starting to show some mid-level rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The lead cell west of Farmington is starting to show some mid-level rotation. Very little effective srh in west Illinois per mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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