HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Event on Sunday looks to mostly effect western parts of the subforum Monday would look to have pretty decent shear and winds aloft, but the question is on instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Not terribly impressed with the set up on Monday. Instability and moisture greatly lacking across the region, especially east of South Bend, and shear looks MAYBE good enough for a marginal threat at best. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Going out to the plains this weekend, probably western IA/MO. Worth a try since I am on vacation all week next week and have the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2017 Share Posted April 8, 2017 10 hours ago, WxMatt21 said: Not terribly impressed with the set up on Monday. Instability and moisture greatly lacking across the region, especially east of South Bend, and shear looks MAYBE good enough for a marginal threat at best. Next... We've seen better threats so far this year for sure. Surface low in a weakening state is not as good as the other way around and am a bit concerned about having enough convergence, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2017 Share Posted April 9, 2017 NAM forecast sounding near the intersection of I-57/I-80 in northeastern IL at 21z Mon Pretty much a unidirectional wind profile, but good speed shear. NAM and GFS both have dewpoints AOA 60, with the NAM a bit more bullish on northward extent. Given the recent rains and decent moisture return already progged for tomorrow, you wouldn't think it would be that difficult to realize 60 degree dews in Chicagoland on Monday but will have to watch the mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2017 Share Posted April 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: NAM forecast sounding near the intersection of I-57/I-80 in northeastern IL at 21z Mon Pretty much a unidirectional wind profile, but good speed shear. NAM and GFS both have dewpoints AOA 60, with the NAM a bit more bullish on northward extent. Given the recent rains and decent moisture return already progged for tomorrow, you wouldn't think it would be that difficult to realize 60 degree dews in Chicagoland on Monday but will have to watch the mixing. Looks like a decent severe threat for your area and points east. Models have been pretty consistent in developing a broken line of convection along the advancing CF later Monday. The hodo above mentions a tornado hazard, but I think it's being a bit too generous in that regard. Looks like primarily a wind threat. An isolated tor report wouldn't shock me though given the degree of stretching above 1km, but it's a setup I would probably sit out from a chase stand point. May head out to western/northwest Iowa later today. It's just interesting enough to maybe gamble on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2017 Share Posted April 9, 2017 Not going to chase today.While there are some things to like about today's setup, there are more things not to like.Looks like that nice EML will actually be too overpowering. CAM's have been gradually backing off warm sector initiation. Most guidance is now showing most activity being north of the warm front in MN/WI, and behind the DL in NE. Anytime guidance shows the only initiation being behind the DL usually is a precursor to a down day.Oh, and the NAM has been terrible with forecasting this event. Showing temps much too low across the warm sector, holding low clouds in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2017 Share Posted April 9, 2017 12 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like a decent severe threat for your area and points east. Models have been pretty consistent in developing a broken line of convection along the advancing CF later Monday. The hodo above mentions a tornado hazard, but I think it's being a bit too generous in that regard. Looks like primarily a wind threat. An isolated tor report wouldn't shock me though given the degree of stretching above 1km, but it's a setup I would probably sit out from a chase stand point. May head out to western/northwest Iowa later today. It's just interesting enough to maybe gamble on. Yeah, the tornado threat should be fairly low. If I had to bet I'd say they will go 2%. I may be hallucinating but the 12z runs seem a hair less veered at the surface. Not enough change in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2017 Share Posted April 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 9, 2017 Author Share Posted April 9, 2017 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like it could be a nice wind producer if that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 On 4/7/2017 at 4:41 PM, Stebo said: Going out to the plains this weekend, probably western IA/MO. Worth a try since I am on vacation all week next week and have the time. Welp ended up in Kansas, at least it was a nice drive and a part of the country I have never been to. Other than that... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Weather watch being considered for portions of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 1:00 AM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Pretty classic elevated mixed layer on the 00z DVN sounding. 700-500 mb lapse rates >9C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Quite a few hail reports south/east of the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Looks like I get a second chance if I can make it from El Dorado KS to Western IL tomorrow before things go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Looks like I get a second chance if I can make it from El Dorado KS to Western IL tomorrow before things go up. What time you thinking things go up? I'm planning on chasing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Chase is looking more and more likely for Monday.Guidance has slowed the front the past day or so, enough so that it makes for a more interesting threat in IL/S. WI.Ample CAPE and moisture on guidance, with the high lapse rates still in place. Initiation looks likely west of I-39, with 0z CAM's in good agreement. Tor threat is not the greatest, but that N. IL/S. WI area is favored should a few occur.My only concern is if morning convection lingers a bit too long, or associated cloud debris lingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Some indications of development on what looks like a subtle pre frontal trough, so could get a couple shots around here on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Last night things looked somewhat interesting for northern Iowa. As the HRRR came into range of the event it became clear that initiation was looking less likely along and south of the warm front. There was one run that showed it though. Probably wasn't too far away from getting it done, but alas it didn't. At least before sunset. Glad I chose not to chase after all. I definitely respect all the chasers who chose to head out and give it a shot today. I almost felt dirty for not going out and giving it a shot myself. In the "old" days I definitely would have. Still not excited about tomorrow's setup, but since it's become closer to home I may meander out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 10, 2017 Author Share Posted April 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 The new outlook is out, with a 5% tornado area all around southern Lake Michigan, which doesn't seem unreasonable as that aspect is looking slightly better than earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The new outlook is out, with a 5% tornado area all around southern Lake Michigan, which doesn't seem unreasonable as that aspect is looking slightly better than earlier runs. If some of the higher res models are correct the western edge of those probs may need to be adjusted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 A couple nice hail cores passed just south of Cedar Rapids dropping 1-1.75" diameter hail. The CR airport also had a 59 mph wind gust. I got a nice light show, but only some very light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 This setup definitely screams overachiever to me, especially if the cap can fully erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Woke up around 2 this morning to constant lightening to the sw. Checked radar and knew right away it was going to get nasty. 95% of the storm was all hail ( not rain until near the end) and ended up with 4-5" on the ground when it was over. MQT had a wind gust to 71 mph, certainly above 60 mph here. The worst storm I have seen in 6 years! Trees down, power is out and I have no idea when the road to 510 will be passable. Yesterday it was almost 70, and currently it's 30. The forecast for here only called for "showers".... lol The roar of the wind and marble sized hail coming over the ridge and hitting the house was nuts, and from a weather lovers perspective, I hope to never see it again IMBY! And the potential for very heavy wet snow tonight! wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 I felt a lot better about this setup 12 hours ago... but now all I see is an overworked atmosphere. Lots of showers from the secondary piece of energy that's swinging through this morning. Looks best west of the Lake and North of I-96 where the most sunshine occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Wow, weatherbo, that's pretty intense. I've never seen hail cover the ground before. My hail storms have always been light and/or brief. On a local chat I talked to a guy who lives in the boonies southwest of Iowa City. Last night wind-blown large hail damaged his siding and broke several windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Wow, weatherbo, that's pretty intense. I've never seen hail cover the ground before. My hail storms have always been light and/or brief. On a local chat I talked to a guy who lives in the boonies southwest of Iowa City. Last night wind-blown large hail damaged his siding and broke several windows. Yes, and very unexpected! Here's a poor quality pic I snapped a few minutes after the hail started (no snow on the ground all hail) . It lasted 10 min I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 looking at latest data I would suspect SPC will increase Probs for the chicago metro area in the 1630z update....Enhanced risk IMO low keeps winds backed some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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