Calderon Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 RFD has overtaken the circulation, so the tornado threat is pretty much near 0 now but the hail threat is still kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 It's absolutely ripping here in Douglas County. The rain is very intense, lots of lighting with house rattling thunder. Long, Long day ahead it looks like out here. Curious to see what this morning convection does later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Tbh, the intensity and overall coverage of this morning convection is more significant than I was picturing. Thinking it is a major reason they stuck with MOD in latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 The enhanced risk got pulled back up to the NC border in our area, about a 30 mile shift to the north. The moderate risk stayed about the same, from Greenwood and Abbeville southward. All of upstate SC now has at least a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles, except right on the NC border. The damaging wind threat went up too, from 15% to 30% over upstate SC along and south of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 North of Mobile Quote The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in southwestern Alabama... Central Clarke County in southwestern Alabama... * Until 830 AM CDT * At 759 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Saint Stephens, or 11 miles northeast of Chatom, moving east at 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Tbh, the intensity and overall coverage of this morning convection is more significant than I was picturing. Thinking it is a major reason they stuck with MOD in latest update. I don't know if I would call this significant since it is barely any storm reports aside from hail. Now, if there were reports of wind damage and/or tornadoes then I would be concerned. This is the blowing up of the convergence of along the warm front. I'm going to be start being alarmed if there is a true lull after this moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, kayman said: I don't know if I would call this significant since it is barely in storm reports aside from hail. Now, it was reports of wind damage and/or tornadoes then I would be concerned. This is the blowing up of the convergence of along the warm front. I'm going to be start being alarmed if there is a true lull after this moves out. looks like warm front is way above you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, kayman said: Apparently, the Maxwell and Fort Rucker/Tallahassee radars are still down so it is affecting the HRRR and other hi-resolution models forecast. Why would a radar being down impact model output? Radar only shows what is happening currently, is not inputted into the actual model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: Yeah too bad it didn't create a life threatening situation during rush hour in a metro area Rush hour is life threatening on any day in ATL , without storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: looks like warm front is way above you all Do not use that "surface analysis." The warm front is best to find using station plots. It's between BHM and Cullman stretching across and bisecting the ATL metro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CGChaser said: Why would a radar being down impact model output? Radar only shows what is happening currently, is not inputted into the actual model? Apparently, the hi-res model is a composite forecast of all of the Level II radars in a region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, CGChaser said: Why would a radar being down impact model output? Radar only shows what is happening currently, is not inputted into the actual model? On the HRRR and the RAP(I believe) radar output is used in order to give a more correct initialization of convection. Since these radars are down, these have a huge blind hole they cannot see into. However, modeled convection should not be affected in these areas. However, the accuracy of the model may be hindered some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Calderon said: Do not use that "surface analysis." The warm front is best to find using station plots. It's between BHM and Cullman stretching across and bisecting the ATL metro right now. Thank you for the clarification. I've learned to never look at surface maps to determine where a front is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, kayman said: Apparently, the hi-res model is a composite forecast of all of the Level II radars in a region Gotcha, I'm just not sure how much the radars are being a player in this case. The model is essentially missing the swath of convection near Atl as well as near BHM where radars are up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 hour ago, a5ehren said: TWC is saying the bad init on HRRR is due to the Montgomery and Ft Rucker radars being down. Could be a huge issue later on. yeah that really sucks. hrrr does a pretty good job a lot of the times. i'm surprised the 12z run didn't improve with input from ffc radar though. 27 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: It's absolutely ripping here in Douglas County. The rain is very intense, lots of lighting with house rattling thunder. Long, Long day ahead it looks like out here. Curious to see what this morning convection does later in the day. ffc was wise to issue a flood watch..flooding looks to be an increasing threat. Some really impressive rates and training going on right now in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Have some GOES-16 everyone! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=southeast-02-12-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Have some GOES-16 everyone! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=southeast-02-12-1 that's awesome they've added it. been looking forward to goes 16 for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 any idea how soon the clouds might vacate eastern tn so we can get some day time heating cause we are not looking to get any of the storms to the south anyone have a best guess ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious Fluid Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Hello, long time observer here. Shoutout to all the Mets on here, this forum has helped me IMMENSELY in the past, and I come here as often as I do TWC. Its coming down pretty hard here in Buford (35 minutes NE of ATL). Has been for about an hour. No hail yet but lots of CTG lightning and very intense rain. Curious to see how this downpour affects later development ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 It looks like the southern edge of the convection around Atlanta is starting to move north. If we get clearing and sun down here watch out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: It looks like the southern edge of the convection around Atlanta is starting to move north. If we get clearing and sun down here watch out!!! Well don't forget you have that backside of stuff in Alabama to still slide through/near Atlanta, so it'll be a while before we get any sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phobos Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, ViciousFLuid said: Hello, long time observer here. Shoutout to all the Mets on here, this forum has helped me IMMENSELY in the past, and I come here as often as I do TWC. Its coming down pretty hard here in Buford (35 minutes NE of ATL). Has been for about an hour. No hail yet but lots of CTG lightning and very intense rain. Curious to see how this downpour affects later development ... i'm up the road from you in Braselton, experiencing much of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Calderon said: Well don't forget you have that backside of stuff in Alabama to still slide through/near Atlanta, so it'll be a while before we get any sunshine. I'm not convinced that stuff doesn't lift north of Atlanta yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Calderon said: Well don't forget you have that backside of stuff in Alabama to still slide through/near Atlanta, so it'll be a while before we get any sunshine. I've been watching that stuff in Alabama and it is starting to move more northward than eastward in the last several frames of the radar. If we look at the GOES 16 visible satellite the LLJ from the SW is starting to take its role in movement of the morning convection. I feel there is a lull about to start taking place in the next 2 hours. The convection associated with the front from last night in TX, LA, and AR has all but gone, so we will have watch what the LLJ about to do very closely. There is talk that the LLJ may diverge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I'm not convinced that stuff doesn't lift north of Atlanta yet. It doesn't have to lift completely north of Atlanta for it to not affect what may play out here. Plus, you have that whole cluster in central and southern Alabama, so I'd concentrate on that more than what is near BHM. You have a significant amount of cloud debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Just continuous waves of heavy rain going over my house every 5 minutes or so. Almost tropical like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious Fluid Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Right in the bullseye for the morning round... Quote Just continuous waves of heavy rain going over my house every 5 minutes or so. Almost tropical like. Same thoughts here. The "bullseye" is almost reminiscent of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 We need some of our heavy hitters in severe to weigh in. This one is tough, plenty of precip and cloud debris, going to be touch and go. Where is the usual gang btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 It is moving into downtown Greenville. Big thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 just saw a quick peak of blue sky IMBY, afternoon is going to be interesting. If Something pops close to me I'm gonna chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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