downeastnc Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Severe cells moving onshore now near Mobile and Panama City. Yep gonna be a long day and even longer night tomorrow ( or I guess today now ), I am on nightshift so I will be at work all Wed night so that means I will be awake but my wife is super pissed I wont be home she has storm issues. The timing for us here in eastern NC is really rough and if we do get some big tornadic storms it will be later at night.....reminds me of 1984 since those also hit at night luckily for us though this setup isn't going to be nearly that severe up this way still wouldn't be surprised to see them modify the enhanced area on the current day 3 to include a larger area and maybe even bump it to mod risk some of the sounding are pretty bad for us Wed night. That one cell NE of Pensacola looks kinda hooky.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 SREF with a 75 STI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3km has strong/violent tornado potential all the way up to KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 If a model could spell trouble, this is what it would look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Really been thinking that the new D1 will have to extend the MDT into TN/KY and even farther west into AL. 00z NAM/3km NAM/HRW-NMM/RPM all have a string of pearls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Rather impressive consensus for discrete cells from AL to KY https://i.gyazo.com/611354c2696fb0d20d33c1574ff3f875.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 A lot of hype coming from local news stations here in the Upstate. Looking like we'll probably be spared from the worst of it. Good thing too since I work nights and will be asleep most of tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Really been thinking that the new D1 will have to extend the MDT into TN/KY and even farther west into AL. 00z NAM/3km NAM/HRW-NMM/RPM all have a string of pearls Agreed. They might have a massive moderate risk area with an upgrade to high possible at the morning update for areas of Al/GA. The first of what will likely be many MD's: DISCUSSION...A west-east corridor of stronger thunderstorms has developed early in the overnight across far southern portions of MS/AL into the FL panhandle. This is likely related to increasing warm advection/isentropic ascent focused near and immediately north of a northward-shifting maritime-related warm front along the Gulf Coast. As near-70F surface dewpoints become increasingly common in coastal areas, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (as per the 00Z observed sounding from Slidell LA) and ample shear through the cloud-bearing layer may support a few supercells capable of severe hail. While these storms should initially be at least slightly elevated overnight, gradually increasing low-level moisture and the arrival of somewhat stronger upstream forcing may contribute to an increasing/northward-expanding near-surface-based severe risk through the pre-dawn hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Really been thinking that the new D1 will have to extend the MDT into TN/KY and even farther west into AL. 00z NAM/3km NAM/HRW-NMM/RPM all have a string of pearls If that's the case, they just may go high with that big of a moderate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Just now, SmokeEater said: If that's the case, they just may go high with that big of a moderate area. Don't see high for tonight's issuance I'd say. Will go at 13z pending on morning models and convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SmokeEater said: If that's the case, they just may go high with that big of a moderate area. We'll see. Some of the guidance is rather obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: HRRR My goodness. Seems like those supercells just keep stretching farther and farther north on every new model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, jrips27 said: My goodness. Seems like those supercells just keep stretching farther and farther north on every new model run. Some of those stretching into northern IN might be north of the wf and elevated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Day 1 moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Big 15% hatched tor area, SC, GA, AL, TN, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 This was probably the SPC's best bet, it a high risk is needed it will be clearer in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Given the last few events, probably a good call. Too many things undecided to upgrade. Not sure they won't just keep large moderate area in next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Looks like SPC thinks the threat has lessened for parts of North GA. My area went from Moderate to Enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Looks like SPC thinks the threat has lessened for parts of North GA. My area went from Moderate to Enhanced. Don't bank on it just yet. Definitely some uncertainty with the warm front but still a solid threat. 4z HRRR worked in a plenty volatile atmosphere by mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Don't bank on it just yet. Definitely some uncertainty with the warm front but still a solid threat. 4z HRRR worked in a plenty volatile atmosphere by mid-afternoon. I'm definitely banking on it. I've only been here since August but one thing I"ve noticed is this area is a joke when it comes to severe weather. It even looks like far NE GA went from Moderate to a Slight Risk. Huge decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8AM for southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Don't see any high risks on the maps? I went from moderate risk , to barely slight risk! The wedge is fo real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Don't see any high risks on the maps? I went from moderate risk , to barely slight risk! The wedge is fo real! Yep, I think we're out on this one Mack. These widespread severe weather threats don't usually pan out for this area anyway, at least in my experience. I get more severe weather out of pop up afternoon storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 46 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said: Yep, I think we're out on this one Mack. These widespread severe weather threats don't usually pan out for this area anyway, at least in my experience. I get more severe weather out of pop up afternoon storms. I wouldn't let your guard down fully. Check out, for example, the difference between the 00z and 06z 3km NAM runs: 00z: 06z: That's a huge difference! From what I can tell, the main factor that changed is that the warm front/warm, moist air makes it further north a bit faster. The progression of this front will be the main thing we'll have to watch over the course of the day today, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Any thoughts on the threat level for Augusta given par 3 tourney is today and round one is tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Looks like there's already a nice cell with a developing couplet in eastern Alabama this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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