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April 5-6 Severe Threat


MattPetrulli

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Indeed.  Even 4/27/2011 had it (morning convection for one).

Yeah honestly I haven't seen any event where it was a slam dunk, even some events that look like slam dunks can bust. Iowa is notorious for things that look explosive but end up capped for example. 

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
847 PM CDT WED APR 5 2017  
  
ALC017-060200-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170406T0200Z/  
CHAMBERS AL-  
847 PM CDT WED APR 5 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY...  
          
AT 847 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PENTON, OR NEAR  
STROUD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE D

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There are no severe setups without caveats. That's the nature of convective forecasting.



I agree with that but we all know slam dunk setups as forecasters and this was not one.

While the January outbreak didn't become one with widespread strong tornadoes you still saw plenty of tornadic storms across the south with the big notable ones in Albany and Adel. Today on the other hand had only 10 reports total of tornadoes
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Just now, nwohweather said:

I agree with that but we all know slam dunk setups as forecasters and this was not one.

While the January outbreak didn't become one with widespread strong tornadoes you still saw plenty of tornadic storms across the south with the big notable ones in Albany and Adel. Today on the other hand had only 10 reports total of tornadoes

Adel was not part of the high risk day (i.e. from 12 UTC 1/22 to 12 UTC 1/23).

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Indeed.  Even 4/27/2011 had it (morning convection for one).

Morning convection that produced more tornadoes than this entire event!!!! Didn't get many under-performers that year.

 

Aug 24 2016 remains my favorite outbreak of the past several years. That one had plenty working against it.

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Even though it was in the forecast, there was no rain this evening so far and it doesn't seem like it will rain soon according to the radar.

AKQ is still hyping up tomorrow morning's threat, it went from being an overnight threat to a mid-morning one. We don't need more severe weather here since 200ish homes were damaged during last Friday's tornado.

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14 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Even though it was in the forecast, there was no rain this evening so far and it doesn't seem like it will rain soon according to the radar.

AKQ is still hyping up tomorrow morning's threat, it went from being an overnight threat to a mid-morning one. We don't need more severe weather here since 200ish homes were damaged during last Friday's tornado.

I'm really not sold on the morning severe thunderstorm threat but we will see. 

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2 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I'm really not sold on the morning severe thunderstorm threat but we will see. 

It does seem that there will a decent break in the convection before the main line comes through around 11-12, so we have that going for us. Wakefield certainly hasn't backed down on the threat. I do have the gut feeling it will bust, just being too early in the day.

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nice couplet here

O.NEW.KCHS.TO.W.0015.170406T0225Z-170406T0315Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
1025 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...  
  LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...  
  MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...  
  LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT  
      
* AT 1025 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TIBET, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.   

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A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR
LIBERTY...MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES...
        
At 1038 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Tibet, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. 

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