April 5-6 Severe Threat

[zinski1990]

1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

Boy this thread turned into a dumpster fire lol why are we arguing about weather like this?

Today was absolutely a major busy anyway you slice it as well as an important lesson in physics. IMO the SPC was very reckless in issuing a high risk, when you have an atmosphere continually worked over by rounds of storms you don't go guns blazing on full alert. While the ingredients were indeed alarming to say the least this was way too hyped up today




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Think that's what some of us are trying to get at. Agree 

[janetjanet998]

10 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Boy this thread turned into a dumpster fire lol why are we arguing about weather like this?

Today was absolutely a major busy anyway you slice it as well as an important lesson in physics. IMO the SPC was very reckless in issuing a high risk, when you have an atmosphere continually worked over by rounds of storms you don't go guns blazing on full alert. While the ingredients were indeed alarming to say the least this was way too hyped up today




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The high risk was for the late morning storms moving east into SE GA area.....although this set up like the other 2 underachieved (may still be some surprises over GA tonight)

 

also they were not "reckless" for Christ sakes...a risk is just that a RISK not a certainly 

I have seen old school high risks bust over the years with not even one tornado (CAP busts)

 

blame the media and especially social media for the HYPE

[janetjanet998]

cell in eastern AL looking better all of a sudden..must be hitting that warmfront

[SmokeEater]

cell in eastern AL looking better all of a sudden..must be hitting that warmfront

And tornado warned now.

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

cell in eastern AL looking better all of a sudden..must be hitting that warmfront

yeah to early to write this off, I-20 and south along the AL/GA border and into GA has always been the area of most concern for the storms this evening, all it takes a is a few storms to go ballistic to make this a terrible night....this area is highly populated and any long tracker is going to be devastating. 

[janetjanet998]

differences in opinion on that storm FCC just went with t-storm warning with tornado possible wording

[JasonOH]

3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

yeah to early to write this off, I-20 and south along the AL/GA border and into GA has always been the area of most concern for the storms this evening, all it takes a is a few storms to go ballistic to make this a terrible night....this area is highly populated and any long tracker is going to be devastating. 

All it takes is one tornado to take a bad path and everyone forgets the high risk.  The biggest thing is saving lives in my opinion.  While the high risks this year have largely underperformed, when they did produce there were not fatalities.

[zinski1990]

17 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

The high risk was for the late morning storms moving east into SE GA area.....although this set up like the other 2 underachieved (may still be some surprises over GA tonight)

 

also they were not "reckless" for Christ sakes...a risk is just that a RISK not a certainly 

I have seen old school high risks bust over the years with not even one tornado (CAP busts)

 

blame the media and especially social media for the HYPE

Yah I remember quite a few of those classic looking days in the Midwest in the early to mid 2000s when the cap never did break as well. Also agree on social media problems. Many are so all or nothing thinking when posting. It gets contagious 

[boo radley]

They are looking better, but still only svr warned.

[downeastnc]

5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

They are looking better, but still only svr warned.

Cells firing north of Montgomery AL as well....again this isn't over, heck for my neck of the woods the biggest threat isn't till 5-8am and the soundings for eastern NC still suggest a tornado threat.

 

[nwohweather]

All it takes is one tornado to take a bad path and everyone forgets the high risk.  The biggest thing is saving lives in my opinion.  While the high risks this year have largely underperformed, when they did produce there were not fatalities.

But that's it, underperforming leads to people starting to ignore future warnings which could then get them

[SnowDawg]

5 minutes ago, Macintosh said:

Welp, my peeps in North Alabama are happy it busted. Having been scarred for life by April 2011, they all scurry under the bed like frightened poodles every time there's a tornado watch. Can't blame them. But disappointing it underachieved. Seems like before this season a moderate risk was issued once every 2-3 years. High risks once in 6-7 years. And they always achieved. Now we get Participation Trophy Moderate Risks ever few days. Not sure what changed. Maybe just my perception. I guess it's back to waiting for the next event. 

I know the feeling well....Had a strong EF3 borderline EF4 come through in 2011 and I can't say I don't have an uneasy feeling every time there's a severe threat. I'm happy to now have the knowledge and understanding of these things to not necessarily be scared of it but the memories of that night aren't ever going to rest easy, so I'm happy to pull for a bust.

[JasonOH]

5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

 

But that's it, underperforming leads to people starting to ignore future warnings which could then get them

 

I agree.  I think the tornado threat has finished for the time being, but wierd things happen. Things just haven't quite fallen into place for some reason. Hopefully we get a legit Oklahoma plains high risk this year.

[SnowDawg]

5 minutes ago, Macintosh said:

Welp, my peeps in North Alabama are happy it busted. Having been scarred for life by April 2011, they all scurry under the bed like frightened poodles every time there's a tornado watch. Can't blame them. But disappointing it underachieved. Seems like before this season a moderate risk was issued once every 2-3 years. High risks once in 6-7 years. And they always achieved. Now we get Participation Trophy Moderate Risks ever few days. Not sure what changed. Maybe just my perception. I guess it's back to waiting for the next event. 

I know the feeling well....Had a strong EF3 borderline EF4 come through in 2011 and I can't say I don't have an uneasy feeling every time there's a severe threat. I'm happy to now have the knowledge and understanding of these things to not necessarily be scared of it but the memories of that night aren't ever going to rest easy, so I'm happy to pull for a bust.

[audioguy3107]

I don't know if I've ever seen this many discrete storms with some type of rotation whether weak or strong not have any type of warning on them in the FFC warning area.....guess it goes to show they're not too concerned with them at this point either.

[boo radley]

Southern cells taking off it appears, something to watch.

[Dunkman]

So just a coincidence that the SPC has thrown up these seemingly borderline high risk areas this year? Bit of a change in philosophy maybe supporting the new(ish) threat levels? Not trying to pile on the bust talk I'm just curious and there isn't a lot else going on.

[andyhb]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Boy this thread turned into a dumpster fire lol why are we arguing about weather like this?

Today was absolutely a major busy anyway you slice it as well as an important lesson in physics. IMO the SPC was very reckless in issuing a high risk, when you have an atmosphere continually worked over by rounds of storms you don't go guns blazing on full alert. While the ingredients were indeed alarming to say the least this was way too hyped up today

The bolded statements don't really mix well.

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

 

But that's it, underperforming leads to people starting to ignore future warnings which could then get them

 

I don't disagree, but ultimately, that's their problem. Convective forecasting is tough stuff and probably one of the harder weather threats to effectively communicate to the general public.  For all the advances that have been made in research and short range/convection-allowing modeling, sometimes things just don't pan out quite like expected.  Sometimes you can see the limitations of a given setup well in advance and other times it's hard to see more than a few hours ahead of time, if that.  It's not ideal for public confidence to have events underperform, but it'd be even worse to prematurely back down/sound an all clear only to have things ramp up.

[audioguy3107]

16 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

So just a coincidence that the SPC has thrown up these seemingly borderline high risk areas this year? Bit of a change in philosophy maybe supporting the new(ish) threat levels? Not trying to pile on the bust talk I'm just curious and there isn't a lot else going on.

Not sure what the correct answer is, it seems the last couple of years they've been opting for more high risk areas but targeted for a much smaller area than they used to.....heck If I remember correctly, the high risk area during the April 1998 outbreak covered like 10% of the country.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Reed Timmers "50 tornadoes" tweet seems to have blown up in his face

[jojo762]

2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Reed Timmers "50 tornadoes" tweet seems to have blown up in his face

His tweets usually blow up in his face.. but alas he doesn't learn. 

[janetjanet998]

 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0819 PM CDT WED APR 05 2017  
  
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF  
EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL  
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM  
SOUTHERN OHIO TO PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA TO THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO TO THE  
SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA SOUTH TO PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE  
AND SOUTH FLORIDA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS  
EVENING ACROSS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY  
AND TENNESSEE TO MUCH OF EASTERN ALABAMA.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT  
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA  
INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  TWO AREAS OF STRONG  
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ONE BEING IN VIRGINIA TO PARTS OF THE  
CAROLINAS, AND THE SECOND ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A SYNOPTIC MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID MS VALLEY THIS  
EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVERNIGHT WITH THIS CYCLONE  
REACHING IN/WESTERN OH AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY 12Z.  MEANWHILE, THE  
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS A  
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND DAYBREAK.   
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  
 A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS EVENING EXTENDING FROM  
SOUTHWEST OH THROUGH EASTERN TN AND EASTERN AL AND INTO THE GULF OF  
MEXICO OFF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.  THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST  
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE OH/PA BORDER TO WESTERN OR  
CENTRAL VA TO CENTRAL NC, EASTERN SC INTO NORTHERN FL.  
   
..SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS  
  
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA TO AROUND 60 IN CENTRAL NC, STRENGTHENING  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTENING WITH POLEWARD EXTENT THROUGH TONIGHT TO  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF  
THE ONGOING BANDS OF STORMS NOW MOVING EAST OFF THE COASTS OF THE  
CAROLINAS AND THROUGH SOUTHERN GA.  THIS MOISTENING COMBINED WITH  
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE  
NEGATIVELY-TILTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE UP TO  
1000 J/KG.  STRONG 500-MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-180 METERS  
TONIGHT INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL VA INTO CENTRAL NC  
AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN SC.  STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL  
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ALL SEVERE HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THIS  
REGION.  
   
..UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES  
  
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM  
NORTH-SOUTH THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHERN OH INTO EASTERN TN, AS THE  
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES FROM NORTH-SOUTH AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A  
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED ACROSS WV TO NORTHEAST TN.   
MEANWHILE, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE-WEATHER  
THREAT WILL ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS  
EAST-CENTRAL AL AND NORTHERN GA WHERE STORMS HAVE REMAINED MORE  
DISCRETE, AND CLOSER TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY.  THERE EXISTS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY WITH DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN SC.  HOWEVER, AN INCREASE  
IN FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH EASTWARD EXTENT,  
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE AS DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
STRENGTHENS.  

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Reed Timmers "50 tornadoes" tweet seems to have blown up in his face

Doesn't look like he dominated anything today.

[andyhb]

14 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

So just a coincidence that the SPC has thrown up these seemingly borderline high risk areas this year? Bit of a change in philosophy maybe supporting the new(ish) threat levels? Not trying to pile on the bust talk I'm just curious and there isn't a lot else going on.

Well the issue with the high risks this year is that they've all had at least one major caveat that has limited them from becoming significantly more potent events. 1/22 it was the poor storm relative wind profiles and possibly having too many storms in the warm sector, 4/2 it was the general lack of real estate available for cells to become tornadic before they moved north of the front (and also iffy convective modes/saturated columns leading to a more rapid HP evolution).

Today, there was a multitude of problems, most of them being tied to the southern stream vort max that passed through the warm sector this morning. This acted to induce early pressure falls and shift the primary low level jet axis away from AL/etc. The surface winds were too veered over most of S GA given the storm motions, with again a tendency for rapid HP/MCS evolution with time over the high risk area (in addition to comparatively weaker deep layer shear than further north). In addition, the cold pool left behind by the morning activity, with the absence of a strong low level jet, did not modify much or shift northward. This meant that storms developing later on in AL did not have much real estate to cover before reaching stable air. Moisture return was limited further north. The lack of more favorable turning between 1 km and 6 km didn't help either, as generally unidirectional crossovers reigned south of the boundary. Ultimately, the lack of a strong low level jet and in general the disrupted low level mass fields was the culprit of most of these failure modes, which can be directly attributed to the aforementioned southern stream vort max.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

New Outlooks drops the High and Moderate

Doesn't even have a 10% Tornado Area, which just shows you the level of meh this turned into

[downeastnc]

the local NWS offices still talking up the threat up here in NC much later tonight towards daybreak.....would be bad to have tornadic cells in the area during the morning rush hour and all the school buses on the roads etc etc etc....

RAH

Another threat of severe weather is expected early to mid Thursday
morning areawide. All severe hazards will be possible.

As the mid level longwave trough swings eastward toward the S
Appalachians with a negative tilt, inducing 200-250 m height falls
and prompting an increase in 850 mb winds to around 50 kts with
rebounding upper divergence as the upper jet over the SE
strengthens, we should see a band of strong to severe convection
cross the area, likely in a more linear form with the potential for
bowing segments, embedded circulations, and perhaps a leading
supercell or two, if we can achieve sufficient destabilization. Mid
level lapse rates will remain steep, as noted on the special 18z
sounding from Nashville TN, and despite the nighttime passage which
usually results in lower low level lapse rates, these steep lapse
rates aloft (and the resultant elevated CAPE) combined with vigorous
dynamic forcing for ascent, long looping hodographs, rising surface
dewpoints, and strong kinematics increases confidence in the risk of
severe winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Timing of this later
round of convection looks most likely to be between 2 am and 10 am,
with adverse effects on the morning commute in the Triangle and
Fayetteville areas to the east during the morning rush hour.
 

[nwohweather]

Well the issue with the high risks this year is that they've all had at least one major caveat that has limited them from becoming significantly more potent events. 1/22 it was the poor storm relative wind profiles and possibly having too many storms in the warm sector, 4/2 it was the general lack of real estate available for cells to become tornadic before they moved north of the front (and also iffy convective modes/saturated columns leading to a more rapid HP evolution).

 

Today, there was a multitude of problems, most of them being tied to the southern stream vort max that passed through the warm sector this morning. This acted to induce early pressure falls and shift the primary low level jet axis away from AL/etc. The surface winds were too veered over most of S GA given the storm motions, with again a tendency for rapid HP/MCS evolution with time over the high risk area (in addition to comparatively weaker deep layer shear than further north). In addition, the cold pool left behind by the morning activity, with the absence of a strong low level jet, did not modify much or shift northward. This meant that storms developing later on in AL did not have much real estate to cover before reaching stable air. Moisture return was limited further north. The lack of more favorable turning between 1 km and 6 km didn't help either, as generally unidirectional crossovers reigned south of the boundary. Ultimately, the lack of a strong low level jet and in general the disrupted low level mass fields was the culprit of most of these failure modes, which can be directly attributed to the aforementioned southern stream vort max.

 

 

 

That's the point however. IMO a high risk should have no caveats to the situation and be an absolute slam dunk. It's truly the equivalent of DHS issuing a terrorism code red for an area and should be treated as such.

 

That's my real concern here is all, be cautious with how we warn people especially in an area which saw the worst tornado outbreak arguably in American history just half a decade ago. There were clear concerns about early day convection putting severe chances in jeopardy, that should have been enough to keep it at a moderate

 

Don't fault social media as well as the regular media for the hype. The most respected agency in the field said this was going to be an epic tornado day, what else should outlets say?

[downeastnc]

Tor warning on the cell just south of Roanoke AL

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

That's the point however. IMO a high risk should have no caveats to the situation and be an absolute slam dunk. It's truly the equivalent of DHS issuing a terrorism code red for an area and should be treated as such.

That's my real concern here is all, be cautious with how we warn people especially in an area which saw the worst tornado arguably in American history just half a decade ago. There were clear concerns about early day convection putting severe chances in jeopardy, that should have been enough to keep it at a moderate

There are no severe setups without caveats. That's the nature of convective forecasting.