Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

April 5-6 Severe Threat


MattPetrulli

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 824
  • Created
  • Last Reply

BMX VWP leaves a lot to be desired... just not gonna happen. Everything else is good, we have multiple discrete cells, strong instability, and strong bulk-shear. Very little low-level hodograph curvature. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

To be fair, I think it's safe to say that the window for this event to reach its ceiling of potential is closing fast. In terms of failure mode, this is exactly what I was expecting in terms of how things would play out if the event were to under perform; scattered supercells that struggle to develop and maintain significant low level rotation. From the moment I got up this morning, the overall unidirectional wind profile did not sit well with me. I'm sure the persistent stratiform precip and upscale growth throughout the day probably didn't help either.

Seems that low cape high srh works better than high cape and low srh. Gotta have the right wind fields. Still made for some giant sups that were fun to watch though

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

I am not seeing whatever you are seeing.

I meant to say forming...(but struggling)

 

new t-storm

AC077-149-199-285-060000-  
/O.NEW.KFFC.SV.W.0149.170405T2312Z-170406T0000Z/  
  
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
712 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  EAST CENTRAL HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  NORTHEASTERN TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  SOUTHERN COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM EDT  
  
* AT 712 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HOGANSVILLE,  
  OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAGRANGE, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.   

  
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...0.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

BMX VWP leaves a lot to be desired... just not gonna happen. Everything else is good, we have multiple discrete cells, strong instability, and strong bulk-shear. Very little low-level hodograph curvature. 

Just one of those deals, everything was right outside of that, but sometimes all it takes is one element not quite right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I am too   ;)    

 

Folks....Keep the banter elsewhere before you are on the outside trying to look in

I think I've read/learned more about wedges in this thread than I had in my entire life.  I suppose it's relevant discussion until the comparisons to winter setups are made.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SmokeEater said:


Are you 2? Enough. You've stated how you feel 800 times, stop mucking up the thread with crap with storms ongoing.

I mean you can tow the "It's not a bust until every storm has dissipated!!!" line as much as you want, but honestly, I've seen this exchange before and in the end he's right, even if he isn't going about it in the best way. Everyone jumped down people's throats for calling bust during the unidirectional grunge-fest that was 1/22/17, even though in the end they weren't wrong. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

BMX VWP leaves a lot to be desired... just not gonna happen. Everything else is good, we have multiple discrete cells, strong instability, and strong bulk-shear. Very little low-level hodograph curvature. 

Alabama lucked out big time although it might be a bit too early to say that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said:

I mean you can tow the "It's not a bust until every storm has dissipated!!!" line as much as you want, but honestly, I've seen this exchange before and in the end he's right, even if he isn't going about it in the best way. Everyone jumped down people's throats for calling bust during the unidirectional grunge-fest that was 1/22/17, even though in the end they weren't wrong. 

Yep... If things were meant to be we would absolutely have a full blown tornado outbreak right now. There are over seven discrete cells in the warm sector right now across AL/GA. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said:

I mean you can tow the "It's not a bust until every storm has dissipated!!!" line as much as you want, but honestly, I've seen this exchange before and in the end he's right, even if he isn't going about it in the best way. Everyone jumped down people's throats for calling bust during the unidirectional grunge-fest that was 1/22/17, even though in the end they weren't wrong. 

This.  I never call a bust early, (unless it involves snow in the SE ;)  it that's another story) but I think what ticks posters and the mods on here are the quick one liners and snide comments......well, this is a bust, for example.  This is a great forum with incredibly knowledgeable people, so it would be more helpful to write up a paragraph explaining why so others can learn rather than the annoying comments.  That being said, I,think part of the frustration for posters in north Georgia is how often the CAD and residual cold pools that stay anchored over the state prevent them from experiencing exciting weather.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Umm some people just can't deal with being wrong. I deal with this living near Lake ontario with lake snow and severe weather. It's even harder to predict weather up here

That may be true, but you don't have to be a dick about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

I mean you can tow the "It's not a bust until every storm has dissipated!!!" line as much as you want, but honestly, I've seen this exchange before and in the end he's right, even if he isn't going about it in the best way. Everyone jumped down people's throats for calling bust during the unidirectional grunge-fest that was 1/22/17, even though in the end they weren't wrong. 

It's not about anything other than being an arse <_<   He is now on vacation ;) 

 

Now....back to your regular broadcasting schedule  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean you can tow the "It's not a bust until every storm has dissipated!!!" line as much as you want, but honestly, I've seen this exchange before and in the end he's right, even if he isn't going about it in the best way. Everyone jumped down people's throats for calling bust during the unidirectional grunge-fest that was 1/22/17, even though in the end they weren't wrong. 


Never once did I say it's not a bust until everything is dissipated, but like I complained earlier about people calling bust at 1pm, that's beyond stupid. But that's fine if you don't mind a guy from New England making his only posts in this sub forum, not adding a damn thing scientifically, only saying how people can't take the truth like we have something invested in this like SPC or NWS. If this was done in the NE forum, people would have his head, lol.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wasn't trying to be a trolling idiot earlier saying bust. It was just what my feeling of this event was. From what most predicted earlier by now there would be a line of tornado super cells maintaining character for longer than 5 minutes. Pretty much noticed the event would not materialize like thought after cooler Temps from wedge coupled with hours of clouds and storms in a slow moving storm complex. That's all

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This pretty much sums up the problem(s)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0647 PM CDT WED APR 05 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
TENNESSEE...EASTERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 127...  
  
VALID 052347Z - 060045Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 127 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE MODES  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.  LOCAL SPATIAL EXTENSIONS  
OF THE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS STORMS APPROACH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND  
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  
  
DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
WW 127 JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM  
CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SELMA, ALABAMA.  STORMS JUST  
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAVE DEVELOPED INTO BROKEN BANDS WITH  
OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONES AND BOW ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  THE  
PRESENCE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION AND AROUND 1000  
J/KG MUCAPE HAS FOSTERED UPDRAFT ROTATION IN A FEW OF THE MORE  
ISOLATED CELLS.  
  
FARTHER SOUTH, MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AMIDST A  
WEAKLY CAPPED, MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  A FEW MESOCYCLONES HAVE  
DEVELOPED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT VEERED FLOW IN  
ALABAMA HAS FOSTERED SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
AND HAVE PERHAPS HINDERED  
THE TORNADO THREAT THERE SOMEWHAT.  FURTHERMORE, LOW-LEVEL BACKED  
FLOW IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS  
OCCURRED AMIDST COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION REMAINS  
INFLUENCED BY AN ONGOING MCS FARTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
.   
THUS FAR, STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MORE  
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW, LIKELY OWING TO CELLULAR CONVECTION BECOMING  
QUICKLY ELEVATED ONCE THE MOVE INTO THE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OVER  

GEORGIA.  THE TORNADO POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY,  
ESPECIALLY AS CELLS CROSS INTO THIS RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS.  DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS AND ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy this thread turned into a dumpster fire lol why are we arguing about weather like this?

Today was absolutely a major busy anyway you slice it as well as an important lesson in physics. IMO the SPC was very reckless in issuing a high risk, when you have an atmosphere continually worked over by rounds of storms you don't go guns blazing on full alert. While the ingredients were indeed alarming to say the least this was way too hyped up today




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...