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April 5-6 Severe Threat


MattPetrulli

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It seems to be splitting into N/S chunks, with the worrisome circulation staying in the southern piece.

 

That's right about where the last cell split a couple of hours ago, with a northern piece heading off into Mableton and Marietta, and a southern chunk.

 

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7 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

The storm system is definitely battling the wedge, it's trying to force the instability further north and east, but here in Georgia, the wedge wins about, oh, 100% of the time.

Not always because there have been tornadoes in the past across North Georgia.  The temperature is still going up here in Atlanta and the winds from the southwest have picked up as well in the past hour.

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15 minutes ago, kayman said:

Not always because there have been tornadoes in the past across North Georgia.  The temperature is still going up here in Atlanta and the winds from the southwest have picked up as well in the past hour.

This is a topic I'd love to get into after the nowcasting is over.........but quickly.......sure, we can have spin ups along a QLCS or our typical embedded rotations along squall lines, but we have never, and I mean never had a forecasted day like this ( mod/high risk, discrete supercells etc.) come to fruition with a cooler stable wedge in place. I've followed severe weather for over 30 years here and if you're in the NE CAD areas, it's not happening until the wedge is gone.

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Just now, tim123 said:

And whoever is taking down my posts is a looser. Why can't I give my opinion

You're just spewing nonsense and aren't posting anything constructive. Post maps and discussion to backup your claim. 

Sorry Buckeyefan, just getting tired of reading these posts. :(

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To be fair, I think it's safe to say that the window for this event to reach its ceiling of potential is closing fast. In terms of failure mode, this is exactly what I was expecting in terms of how things would play out if the event were to under perform; scattered supercells that struggle to develop and maintain significant low level rotation. From the moment I got up this morning, the overall unidirectional wind profile did not sit well with me. I'm sure the persistent stratiform precip and upscale growth throughout the day probably didn't help either.

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1 minute ago, Disc said:

You're just spewing nonsense and aren't posting anything constructive. Post maps and discussion to backup your claim. 

Sorry Buckeyefan, just getting tired of reading these posts. :(

I am too   ;)    

 

Folks....Keep the banter elsewhere before you are on the outside trying to look in

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1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said:

To be fair, I think it's safe to say that the window for this event to reach its ceiling of potential is closing fast. In terms of failure mode, this is exactly what I was expecting in terms of how things would play out if the event were to under perform; scattered supercells that struggle to develop and maintain significant low level rotation. From the moment I got up this morning, the overall unidirectional wind profile did not sit well with me. I'm sure the persistent stratiform precip and upscale growth throughout the day probably didn't help either.

You called that very early in the day. It is most definitely time of the day just about everyone thought it would take off. Next 60 minutes will be telling.

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The line of formerly tornado warned storms is finally moving into the hilton head/beaufort area. Just some moderate rain and a few flashes of lightning. Second round should be here in about 90 minutes or so. Can't say I'm disappointed because I wasn't really hoping to be sucked into a tornado today, but definitely not what I was expecting. 

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