April 5-6 Severe Threat

[janetjanet998]

need to keep an eye for round two later also

precip over ATL area will help keep winds backed later as storms move in from the west

[monsoonman1]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Possibility. 

Totally read their tweet wrong. Thought it said "outlook upgrade."

[LovingGulfLows]

Insanely heavy rain right now over me...probably could describe it as torrential...at least 2 inch per hour rates.

[mob1]

This warned storm looks pretty impressive, but the operational radar site isn't ideal. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, monsoonman1 said:

Totally read their tweet wrong. Thought it said "outlook upgrade."

Fair! Happens all the time.  

[monsoonman1]

Looks like A tornado very close to FFC radar site. TDS and TVS.

[JasonOH]

Looks like we may have the upgrade coming.  Look a the second computer from the left. It looks similar to the MD but isn't as far west.

[Indystorm]

23 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

That should suffice for a PDS watch.

If a high risk is issued the watch will automatically be PDS.

[kayman]

Just now, LovingGulfLows said:

When it all said and done, I think the heart of the threat is going to be from an area south of the Atlanta metro to just south of Macon and across the state. Any areas within that boundary is going to be where the big tornado outbreak is. I think the Atlanta area will mostly be spared.

I don't know about that being the case.  Convection only does so much for so long, and the LLJ has yet to push the disturbance/dryline like feature into Northern Georgia yet.  Until we see how that interacts with the other ingredients then we cannot assume that the Atlanta area will be spared.

[Thrasher Fan]

TOR Warning nearly on top of the KFFC radar site. Rotation looks good

[Chinook]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

This warned storm looks pretty impressive, but the operational radar site isn't ideal. 

 

EVX and TLH are a little closer to this storm

[Lookout]

24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

What's Glenn Burns' thoughts

lol....old glenn mother f'n burns...still sucking  after all these years. 

24 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

I think people haven't got the memo that all NCEP models are having initialization issues today.  Any recent HRRR run is not properly initializing, making them absolutely useless.

that figures...of all days to have problems. 

19 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Thanks for the detailed response.  You certainly know your area better than I do, and it wasn't my intent to challenge you or curb discussion about today, but more curiosity.  I was just pointing out that sometimes people will read things out of context and use it to resolve an opinion that has no validity in science.

that's ok...but no one should. I'm very concerned. 

at any rate, an inch with just that one storm...2.25 inches of rain already. Those storms west of here look ominous as far as rain goes. 

.

 

[Chinook]

TATL short-range radar from Atlanta is showing a definite hook echo near Jackson, GA. Possible tornado.

[LovingGulfLows]

Tornado warning for Spalding county southeast Atlanta metro.

[oconeexman]

Power of the wedge here. Still mid 50's a little thunder and lightning. Schools letting out everywhere else.

[wx n of atl]

I am in downtown ATL. I was surprised by the amount of water. It has been heavy rain all morning with a huge wall of water 15 or so minutes ago.    Anyone have a map that shows rain totals instantly?  or rain rate maybe? 

  

[Lookout]

2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Power of the wedge here. Still mid 50's a little thunder and lightning. Schools letting out everywhere else.

warm front is still south of here too but it's close. It's 60 here with east winds..low to .mid 70s just to the south though.  

[LovingGulfLows]

3rd Tornado warning right now in Jonesboro going towards Southern Rockdale County, the county I live in.

[Chinook]

Three hour rain in Downtown Atlanta has been about 1.3"

[NEGa]

4 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Power of the wedge here. Still mid 50's a little thunder and lightning. Schools letting out everywhere else.

same here - 56 and bucket loads of rain, lots of thunder and lightning.  where are these wedges when we need them (ie dec - feb lol). 

[PowellVolz]

Has the warm front crossed the line into Tennessee yet?


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[LovingGulfLows]

Anyone see that bowing feature south of Atlanta?

[Indystorm]

Never underestimate the power of advancing warm fronts to produce tornadoes if parameters are sufficient.

[Drz1111]

27 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Thanks for the detailed response.  You certainly know your area better than I do, and it wasn't my intent to challenge you or curb discussion about today, but more curiosity.  I was just pointing out that sometimes people will read things out of context and use it to resolve an opinion that has no validity in science.

That's those people's problem (unless you're working at NWS or media).  Accurate debate is more important.  And mesoscale topography influences whether or not t-storms form, whether or not a storm that forms is a supercell, and whether or not that supercell becomes tornadic.  This is black-letter meteorology these days.  

That being said, the word is 'influence'.  As someone who's had a close family member watch a (weak) tornado pass within 500 feet of them by a lakehouse in the mountains in New England, I get that just because something is less probable doesn't make it impossible. 

[janetjanet998]

.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0060.170405T1628Z-170405T1700Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1228 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  NORTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 100 PM EDT  
  
* AT 1228 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF  
  LUMPKIN, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

[kayman]

While we are all caught up with the rain shield and cells over North Georgia, the lull has started to setup over in Alabama.  James Spann just tweeted that the forecast is doing exactly what he expected raining for now over N. GA, but it is starting to clear and become very calm to the west.   Clanton (AL), a southern exurb of Birmingham are reporting clear skies and Montgomery is reporting similar conditions too.  The main disturbance is still near the Mississippi River in Western Mississippi.  It's becoming apparent there is plenty of time and space for things to recover and redevelop for East Alabama and West Georgia in the afternoon and evening.

[Superstorm93]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1228 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Randolph County in southwestern Georgia...
  Northwestern Terrell County in southwestern Georgia...

* Until 100 PM EDT

* At 1228 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 9 miles south of
  Lumpkin, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 
 

[Mrwolf1972]

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Has the warm front crossed the line into Tennessee yet?


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I know every map ive seen has it in middle tn even tho some say not to look at maps and its a dry line in middle ga causing those storms but what do I know lol

[janetjanet998]

  
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1129 AM CDT WED APR 05 2017  
  
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z  
  
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
HIGH FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND THEN  
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
MODERATE FROM PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST  
STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
ENHANCED FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE EASTERN STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND EASTWARD TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY  
FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA, AND  
ALSO FROM PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN  
ADDITION, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.  
  
...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND  
THE MID-ATLANTIC...  
ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ARE  
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF  
COAST INTO SOUTHERN GA. THIS ACTIVITY RESIDES WELL AHEAD OF A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AND IS EVOLVING  
WITHIN A BROAD, MOISTENING OPEN WARM SECTOR. WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA  
SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S DEVELOPING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF  
THIS ACTIVITY, SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AIDED BY  
WARM-SECTOR INSOLATION STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH A  
RESIDUAL EML PLUME, AND GIVEN THE ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE NATURE TO  
ROTATING UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
VICINITY, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS  
WILL BE LIKELY. FURTHERMORE, WITH MATURING MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONES  
ALREADY EVIDENT, AND LOW-LEVEL SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 AIDING THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AMID THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
THETA-E, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN HIGHER COVERAGE OF TORNADO  
POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL -- ACROSS THE  
NOW-UPGRADED HIGH RISK AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE  
HIGH RISK AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS VERTICAL WIND PROFILES  
FURTHER STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND 700-MB  
FLOW INCREASING OVER 50 KT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND PREVIOUS MODEL  
GUIDANCE ARE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTERS OF THIS HIGH RISK UPGRADE, AS  
OPPOSED TO THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS A DRY BIAS  
IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES -- REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 440.  
OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NORTH GA TO WESTERN SC SERVES  
AS A NORTHERN BOUND TO THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
  
FURTHERMORE, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK  
INCLUDING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AMID STRONG LOW-LEVEL  
AND DEEP SHEAR, AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, SEVERE  
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
ALSO, SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF  
COAST VICINITY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS -- AFFECTING PARTS  
OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL.  
  
FARTHER TO THE WEST, A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE STORM  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VICINITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY  
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND RELATED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE  
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH IN THE DESTABILIZING WARM  
SECTOR -- ENHANCED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM PARTS OF IL  
INTO OH -- WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED, ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ALL SEVERE  
HAZARDS -- INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES -- WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
  

[monsoonman1]

High risk.