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April 5-6 Severe Threat

MattPetrulli

By MattPetrulli,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Solak said:

Brad Panovich‏Verified account @wxbrad 3m3 minutes ago

 
 

SPC high risk upgrade coming shortly.

C8qCD7QXcAAV3Bg.jpg

 

I don't remember the last time i was under a high risk area. Normally i don't worry too much about tornadoes....The area where i'm at, east of athens, has had very few tornadoes relative to most other areas (assuming it might be partly topography/downslope related in reference to where we are in relation to the foothills in west ga but really not sure) but being in a high risk area is no joke and something to be concerned over. 

Getting pounded now with really heavy rain...storm southwest of athens is starting to get a bit stronger and will be in a little while. 

 

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CryHavoc

CryHavoc

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Lookout said:

 

I don't remember the last time i was under a high risk area. Normally i don't worry too much about tornadoes....The area where i'm at, east of athens, has had very few tornadoes relative to most other areas (assuming it might be partly topography/downslope related in reference to where we are in relation to the foothills in west ga but really not sure) but being in a high risk area is no joke and something to be concerned over. 

Getting pounded now with really heavy rain...storm southwest of athens is starting to get a bit stronger and will be in a little while. 

 

I understand you're a moderator, but isn't it Meteorology 101 to tell people not to rely/bank on small or even moderate elevation/topographic differences as a method of diverting storms or explaining why they always seem to "miss" an area?  I'm not sure what your reasoning is that tornadoes don't hit you as often -- tornadoes are typically small by nature and therefore only strike limited areas in the first place.

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted
Just now, CryHavoc said:

I understand you're a moderator, but isn't it Meteorology 101 to tell people not to rely/bank on small or even moderate elevation/topographic differences as a method of diverting storms or explaining why they always seem to "miss" an area?  I'm not sure what your reasoning is that tornadoes don't hit your area.

As it turns out based on more recent research, moderate elevation/topographic differences are highly relevant for tornadogenesis and do explain why storms always seem to "miss" certain areas.  That doesn't mean topographically 'shielded' areas never see tornadoes; just that tornadoes are significantly more rare there. 

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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

I understand you're a moderator, but isn't it Meteorology 101 to tell people not to rely/bank on small or even moderate elevation/topographic differences as a method of diverting storms or explaining why they always seem to "miss" an area?  I'm not sure what your reasoning is that tornadoes don't hit you as often -- tornadoes are typically small by nature and therefore only strike limited areas in the first place.

How familiar are you with the wedge that affects the area that Lookout lives?

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CryHavoc

CryHavoc

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

As it turns out based on more recent research, moderate elevation/topographic differences are highly relevant for tornadogenesis and do explain why storms always seem to "miss" certain areas.  That doesn't mean topographically 'shielded' areas never see tornadoes; just that tornadoes are significantly more rare there. 

Not disagreeing, but can you link to the research?  I'd like to read that.

Just now, DixieBlizzard said:

How familiar are you with the wedge that affects the area that Lookout lives?

Not at all, but just pointing out that I've seen uneducated individuals lambasted by Mets for saying similar things.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

mcd0441.gif

  

Mesoscale Discussion 0441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

   Areas affected...FL Panhandle...GA...Southwest SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 051538Z - 051715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado Watch will be issued by 17z to address increasing
   severe threat from the eastern FL Panhandle into SC.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cu field is beginning to deepen from the
   eastern FL Panhandle into southeast GA as surface temperatures rise
   to near 80F.  Latest high-res Vis imagery depicts
   clustering/towering CU along a corridor from near MAI to near VDI. 
   Substantial breaks in cloud cover suggest additional heating can be
   expected and thunderstorms will likely evolve over the next few
   hours.  Given the strength of the wind fields and rising instability
   there is increasing concern for discrete supercell formation by
   early afternoon.  Environmental parameters appear favorable for a
   few strong tornadoes across this region, in addition to large hail
   and damaging winds.  Tornado watch will be issued for parts of this
   area by 17z.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 04/05/2017


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
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JasonOH

JasonOH

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Not disagreeing, but can you link to the research?  I'd like to read that.

Not at all, but just pointing out that I've seen uneducated individuals lambasted by Mets for saying similar things.

It is mentioned in this paper: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00229.1

I need to do more digging around to find more research into it.

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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Not disagreeing, but can you link to the research?  I'd like to read that.

Not at all, but just pointing out that I've seen uneducated individuals lambasted by Mets for saying similar things.

Much like the tooley fog that affects areas to your east, there are many unique micro-climates even in the south that most of us in this region understand and know why Lookout said what he did.

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LovingGulfLows

LovingGulfLows

Posted
Posted
Just now, LithiaWx said:

Threat looks to shift southeast?

When it all said and done, I think the heart of the threat is going to be from an area south of the Atlanta metro to just south of Macon and across the state. Any areas within that boundary is going to be where the big tornado outbreak is. I think the Atlanta area will mostly be spared.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

I understand you're a moderator, but isn't it Meteorology 101 to tell people not to rely/bank on small or even moderate elevation/topographic differences as a method of diverting storms or explaining why they always seem to "miss" an area?  I'm not sure what your reasoning is that tornadoes don't hit you as often -- tornadoes are typically small by nature and therefore only strike limited areas in the first place.

:huh: Um...no. I'm not sure where you get this idea from no it's not. Likewise, i'm not telling anyone to rely or bank on anything...where you are getting that idea from is a total mystery to me. 

Fact of the matter is,  It's my personal opinion from following the weather here for a very long time...the southern appalachians and foothills play a major role in weather here in a variety of ways. Where i'm at is in an area that receives downslope flow not just from the north and northwest but from the west and WSW...which is a direction where a significant portion of  time the winds blow from in severe weather situations here.  The majority of the time when storms are moving in an easterly direction, storms weaken after they move toward athens...which i assume is  thanks in part  to the elevation difference between here/there and atlanta.  I also am in an area that is effected by cad and  residual cold pools that are also thanks to those mountains which in turn often weakens the storms before they get here. 

But simply stating any of this  is in no way telling anyone to not take anything less seriously and frankly that's a silly suggestion. 

 

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pbrussell

pbrussell

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

I think people haven't got the memo that all NCEP models are having initialization issues today.  Any recent HRRR run is not properly initializing, making them absolutely useless.

Yes. It's pretty unfortunate to not have such a strong tool at our disposal.

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CryHavoc

CryHavoc

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

:huh: Um...no. I'm not sure where you get this idea from no it's not. Likewise, i'm not telling anyone to rely or bank on anything...where you are getting that idea from is a total mystery to me. 

Fact of the matter is,  It's my personal opinion from following the weather here for a very long time...the southern appalachians and foothills play a major role in weather here in a variety of ways. Where i'm at is in an area that receives downslope flow not just from the north and northwest but from the west and WSW...which is a direction where a significant portion of  time the winds blow from in severe weather situations here.  The majority of the time when storms are moving in an easterly direction, storms weaken after they move toward athens...which i assume is  thanks in part  to the elevation difference between here/there and atlanta.  I also am in an area that is effected by cad and  residual cold pools that are also thanks to those mountains which in turn often weakens the storms before they get here. 

But simply stating any of this  is in no way telling anyone to not take anything less seriously and frankly that's a silly suggestion. 

 

Thanks for the detailed response.  You certainly know your area better than I do, and it wasn't my intent to challenge you or curb discussion about today, but more curiosity.  I was just pointing out that sometimes people will read things out of context and use it to resolve an opinion that has no validity in science.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Chinook said:

So what is this "EXTREME DRY BIAS" in the SPC Mesoanalysis? I think the dew points are too low on the HRRR and RAP. Radars KMXX and KEOX are not working right now!

Doesn't look like any of the models are picking up any of the morning activity. Could be something to do with the radars being down, thus not getting information? HRRR and NAM both showed next to nothing precip wise. 

... just my unprofessional guess of course. 

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