NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I think precip amounts could bust high tomorrow. Marginal instability maxes out around the same time that the strong upper-level divergence is maximized. It's really going to come down to whether or not the storms in the afternoon train over the same areas or if they end up further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's really going to come down to whether or not the storms in the afternoon train over the same areas or if they end up further West. Yep, my thinking too. A few hours of torrential rainfall at the minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Up a bit from the morning update, solid 1.5"+ pretty much everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 56 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro? 2 inches from NYC southwest towards Philly-that's the jackpot. Lesser amounts north and West of NYC in the order of an inch to 1.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 2 inches from NYC southwest towards Philly-that's the jackpot. Lesser amounts north and West of NYC in the order of an inch to 1.5 inches. Thanks, seems to be a consensus that the stronger convection will be right along 95. FWIW NWS favors areas just NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 This is my thinking, morning round Second round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 I guess in the grand scheme of things it's not much different in the final numbers, but I think the potential is definitely there for more where convection does train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Look how badly the 3k NAM is doing vs current radar. Definitely that dry bias that SPC was referencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Look how badly the 3k NAM is doing vs current radar. Definitely that dry bias that SPC was referencing. That's not even close. Models having trouble down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: That's not even close. Models having trouble down there. I'm inclined to think that we might have NCEP model verification problems up this way too. I am favoring an UKMET/Euro blend right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 If the initial batch ends up offshore we're going to be in trouble IMO. The 18z RGEM isn't backing down on most of that activity going South of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 47 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm inclined to think that we might have NCEP model verification problems up this way too. I am favoring an UKMET/Euro blend right now. It's a pretty interesting situation. As you and others have said, it depends where the heavy bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 LOL GFS has barely 1/2" for most. More on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If the initial batch ends up offshore we're going to be in trouble IMO. The 18z RGEM isn't backing down on most of that activity going South of LI Big trouble, we don't need this rain.. The less the better will just make more mud for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: LOL GFS has barely 1/2" for most. More on LI I'm thinking these dry solutions have merit-first batch is going to miss well east and models have been keying in on that. The low then deepens well to our west and the big rains from that end up west and leave a dry slot of sorts for those in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: LOL GFS has barely 1/2" for most. More on LI The NCEP models have been struggling all day, SPC tossed them down South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'm thinking these dry solutions have merit-first batch is going to miss well east and models have been keying in on that. The low then deepens well to our west and the big rains from that end up west and leave a dry slot of sorts for those in this forum. You might be right but I think even if that happens most people get more than what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 i really don't care about qpf specifics when 500mb looks like this: you could throw a beach ball into the air and it'll wind up at 300 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 look at the wind direction in LI vs C PA. that's bigly diffluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i really don't care about qpf specifics when 500mb looks like this: you could throw a beach ball into the air and it'll wind up at 300 mb Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3k NAM would be my friend----> I am driving to Florida with the family , leaving in 1 hour can anyone offer a little insight as to when and where our weather could be bad ? Im in Maryland Washington by 11/ 12 tonight and I am in Virginia 2 /3 am ,,,,,NC around 5 am and SC around 8 am,,,,Im going to go check out the Mid Atlantic thread now but any input appreciated guys thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Wow I don't think I've seen 78 dbz on radar before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow I don't think I've seen 78 dbz on radar before That line is actually part of what's supposed to move through our area tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That line is actually part of what's supposed to move through our area tomorrow afternoon. Since there's no warnings up in Ohio I'm guessing the line may not be quite that intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 3.80" so far today at KATL and many surrounding areas over 4.00". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Since there's no warnings up in Ohio I'm guessing the line may not be quite that intense Something happened with the radar. In any event the Southern portion of that line is now severe warned. It's expected to weaken as it crosses PA overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 3.80" so far today at KATL and many surrounding areas over 4.00". Close to the April daily record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 12km cut back on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 46 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow I don't think I've seen 78 dbz on radar before Looks completely different on KPBZ. Likely acting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 3km is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.