Morris Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Yet another squall line heading for Atlanta... Can this line break the record? 3.85" rainfall at Atlanta Hartsfield so far Wednesday. 2nd wettest April day on record (since 1878, 4.44" 1979) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 2:12 AM, Morris said: 12km cut back on the precip. Expand Look at 3k, anyway as Forky said, QPF is not important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Dr. Forbes just said that those high dbz echoes in OH are very intense rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 I don't know what to make of the 00z RGEM. It looked much more intense than 18z on the individual panels but didn't amount to a major uptick in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 6z nam is not really impressive with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 I expected the radar to look more impressive this morning than it does currently. We'll see what may develop during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Just had some heavy rain on the island. Based on the radar it's looking like this could bust low. So maybe the mesos aren't off. Winds also aren't at all impressive. This storms not living up to the hype. (At least now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 that big offshore mcs is an issue. it messed up yesterday's severe threat in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 10:42 AM, forkyfork said: that big offshore mcs is an issue. it messed up yesterday's severe threat in the south Expand That was what I was thinking, thanks for confirming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 10:37 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just had some heavy rain on the island. Based on the radar it's looking like this could bust low. So maybe the mesos aren't off. Winds also aren't at all impressive. This storms not living up to the hype. (At least now) Expand Agree...some gusts here, but nothing crazy. Radar is meh as well. RGEM does have the rains increasing in coverage, but it's all over by 6pm or so this evening. Those models that had the big rains offshore look to have had the right idea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 11:19 AM, Brian5671 said: Agree...some gusts here, but nothing crazy. Radar is meh as well. RGEM does have the rains increasing in coverage, but it's all over by 6pm or so this evening. Those models that had the big rains offshore look to have had the right idea.... Expand You didn't get that thunderstorm? It looked like most of it is to my SE and that's where you are. I got rocked around a little bit, nothing serious but more than I expected at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 11:27 AM, gravitylover said: You didn't get that thunderstorm? It looked like most of it is to my SE and that's where you are. I got rocked around a little bit, nothing serious but more than I expected at 7am. Expand heavy rains with it, but no thunder or lightning or wind. picked up .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 HRRR has 3 waves of rain today, with the 2nd being the heaviest...the 3rd line looks like a broken squall line that moves through this evening - biggest rains in Central PA with a secondary max over LI/CT - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 The main rain will come this afternoon from what's currently over Eastern NC and VA. It appears that the models were a little overzealous with the morning development. FWIW it's raining here with a stiff wind despite not much showing up on radar. Look how far off the 00z SPC WRF was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Again, hard to take it seriously, but this is what the 00z SPC WRF had for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 The stuff in eastern NC look to go wide right. The stuff in Central VA is our best bet if that blossoms. Thinking most places here are an inch or less though as we're largely missing the AM precip models had. It's all over by 6-8pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 If something does develop, tons of elevated instability to work with. The timing seems to have slowed down as well, and that might be what's throwing things off. The SLP hasn't even really developed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 12:31 PM, Brian5671 said: The stuff in eastern NC look to go wide right. The stuff in Central VA is our best bet if that blossoms. Thinking most places here are an inch or less though as we're largely missing the AM precip models had. It's all over by 6-8pm tonight. Expand Even if the stuff over NC goes wide right, things should fill in. And it's going to be very hard to figure out exactly where the convection goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 12:32 PM, bluewave said: The Hrrr has a good handle on things. The current batch just moving through was well modeled. The next round moving through toward noontime is developing now in VA. Round 3 after that is beginning now in WVA. Those two areas will expand and intensify as the upper divergence maxes out with the second low and neg tilt trough. Expand Yeah, I would be worried if the dry slot on water vapor was advancing towards us, but you can see that the trough is really just going negative as we speak. Tons of moisture is about to be advected towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 12:32 PM, bluewave said: The Hrrr has a good handle on things. The current batch just moving through was well modeled. The next round moving through toward noontime is developing now in VA. Round 3 after that is beginning now in WVA. Those two areas will expand and intensify as the upper divergence maxes out with the second low and neg tilt trough. Expand It looks like the area of convection now coming into DC is even larger than what the 11z HRRR had, hoping that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 12:36 PM, NJwx85 said: Yeah, I would be worried if the dry slot on water vapor was advancing towards us, but you can see that the trough is really just going negative as we speak. Tons of moisture is about to be advected towards us. Expand looks like a mid winter system there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 12:38 PM, NJwx85 said: It looks like the area of convection now coming into DC is even larger than what the 11z HRRR had, hoping that's a good sign. Expand The elevated convection parameters are a good as we get to see here in early April. Be interested to see if some stronger winds can mix down later in the heavier storms despite the inversion. 700-500 lapse rate: 6.35 C/km ThetaE index: 5.73 C Layer 800.0- 550.0 mb Conv cond level (CCL): 996.39 mb = 21.71 m = 71.23 ft Mean mixing ratio: 8.59 g/kg Conv temperature: 11.53 C = 52.75 F Cap Strength: 4.95 C Lifted Index: 5.40 C Risk: None Lifted Index @300 mb: 10.22 C Lifted Index @700 mb: 4.29 C Showalter Index: -1.16 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable Total Totals Index: 51.48 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 12:45 PM, bluewave said: The elevated convection parameters are a good as we get to see here in early April. Be interested to see if some stronger winds can mix down later in the heavier storms despite the inversion. 700-500 lapse rate: 6.35 C/km ThetaE index: 5.73 C Layer 800.0- 550.0 mb Conv cond level (CCL): 996.39 mb = 21.71 m = 71.23 ft Mean mixing ratio: 8.59 g/kg Conv temperature: 11.53 C = 52.75 F Cap Strength: 4.95 C Lifted Index: 5.40 C Risk: None Lifted Index @300 mb: 10.22 C Lifted Index @700 mb: 4.29 C Showalter Index: -1.16 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable Total Totals Index: 51.48 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Expand Take a look at the point and click soundings on the HRRR, seems way too low on MUCAPE vs SPC meso analysis. Not sure how that impacts the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 The 12z HRRR is too far Northwest with the stuff down by DC, it has almost nothing falling SE of DC. In reality DC is right in the middle of the heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 Winds starting to pick up now along the South Shore gusting to 34 mph in Wantagh. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 1:38 PM, bluewave said: Winds starting to pick up now along the South Shore gusting to 34 mph in Wantagh. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT Expand Getting that here too. Sheet drizzle and 39 degrees to go with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 1:51 PM, Brian5671 said: Getting that here too. Sheet drizzle and 39 degrees to go with it! Expand I am really happy to have that new station in Wantagh. It's the first professional quality station right along the South Shore of Nassau. It's in a slightly open elevated location down near the bay so it will be a great site for measuring the max winds in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 It's insane how bad these models are with initializing convection. It's right about 14z currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 The activity in the DC Baltimore area looks to miss us to the west. Going to have to wait for the stuff down in VA/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 2:05 PM, Stormlover74 said: The activity in the DC Baltimore area looks to miss us to the west. Going to have to wait for the stuff down in VA/NC Expand It's pouring here. I know you wouldn't think that based on radar but there must be a lot of low level lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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