Brian5671 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Euro has about 1.5 inches QPF for the region...More over SE PA-closer to 2 inches there. Matches other models fairly well for rainfall. - winds are meh-best winds over LI and CT with gusts into the 40's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 On 4/4/2017 at 7:07 PM, Brian5671 said: Euro has about 1.5 inches QPF for the region...More over SE PA-closer to 2 inches there. Matches other models fairly well for rainfall. Expand Thank you, that's all I wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Flood Watches up from Thursday morning into Friday afternoon. NWS calling for 1-2" of rain w/locally higher amounts for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Something not mentioned yet, the Masters tournament could be affected by the severe storms tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 the masters tournament like all golf tournaments always start on thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 On 4/4/2017 at 7:56 PM, nycwinter said: the masters tournament like all golf tournaments always start on thursday... Expand Par 3 contest is tomorrow. Plus they are talking high end outbreak here, could damage the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 18z 4k NAM shows about an 8 hour period of nearly non-stop thunderstorms from about 12z-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 On 4/4/2017 at 8:47 PM, NJwx85 said: 18z 4k NAM shows about an 8 hour period of nearly non-stop thunderstorms from about 12z-21z. Expand the 3K you mean. it's always a bit overzealous in that dept-it had alot of that for today and all we got were some popcorn showers here and here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 On 4/4/2017 at 8:58 PM, Brian5671 said: the 3K you mean. it's always a bit overzealous in that dept-it had alot of that for today and all we got were some popcorn showers here and here... Expand Yes the 3k, not even in the same ballpark in terms of forecasted storm coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 RGEM and NAM have an QPF max off the NJ coasts-gives NYC and vicinity a bit of a dryslot b/w that and higher totals well west - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Flood watch expanded South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 On 4/5/2017 at 1:35 PM, Brian5671 said: Jesus. Expand Just in time for the morning commute. BTW, following the severe threat down South today. Seems that the HRRR is having major issues because of a few down radar sites. Seems as though that model analyzes what's currently going on based on radar and then inputs that into the next run, so I don't know if that will impact the HRRR for our region later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 bye bye Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Looks like PHL will get some good storms into early afternoon? Flight delays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Parts of the Southeast being considered for an upgrade to high risk, interesting that they have mentioned a dry bias on the modeling. Hopefully that lends itself to an epic soaker up here downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 On 4/5/2017 at 3:07 PM, NJwx85 said: Parts of the Southeast being considered for an upgrade to high risk, interesting that they have mentioned a dry bias on the modeling. Hopefully that lends itself to an epic soaker up here downstream. Expand the key to the soaker up here is that big area of convection that rides up NJ and off the shoreline a bit...where that ends up will be the areas with the rainfall jackpot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 12z NAM looks wetter then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 On 4/5/2017 at 3:12 PM, Rtd208 said: 12z NAM looks wetter then previous runs. Expand It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 12z RGEM is fairly dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 12z GFS says congrats Buffalo. Quick round of rain for us and that's it...does give us an inch or so in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 and CMC has the same dryslot b/w 2 maxes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 On 4/5/2017 at 4:29 PM, Brian5671 said: 12z GFS says congrats Buffalo. Quick round of rain for us and that's it...does give us an inch or so in a short period of time. Expand On 4/5/2017 at 4:42 PM, Brian5671 said: and CMC has the same dryslot b/w 2 maxes.... Expand The GFS has an inch + in most areas and it's a much lower resolution than the RGEM and NAM. It's certainly possible that we do get a bit of shaft between waves, but it's going to be nearly impossible to predict exactly where that's going to occur given the convective nature of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 The 12z UKMET is on board, I'll take that over the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 UKMET much wetter than previous runs. Metrogram for NYC shows ~55MM of rain or 2.16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 On 4/5/2017 at 5:00 PM, NJwx85 said: The GFS has an inch + in most areas and it's a much lower resolution than the RGEM and NAM. It's certainly possible that we do get a bit of shaft between waves, but it's going to be nearly impossible to predict exactly where that's going to occur given the convective nature of the precip. Expand I'd tend to agree on a surprise either way-big dryslot or a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 On 4/5/2017 at 5:15 PM, Brian5671 said: I'd tend to agree on a surprise either way-big dryslot or a deluge. Expand Glad to see the UKMET more than doubled it's amounts from 00z and the uniformity and intensity of the precip shield. Remember that a global model probably isn't going to see where the most training occurs with this convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 I think precip amounts could bust high tomorrow. Marginal instability maxes out around the same time that the strong upper-level divergence is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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