HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: GRR upgraded part of their area to a warning and went with advisory elsewhere. The northern part of their CWA has been getting slammed on every model run, so that makes sense. I wonder what IWX and DTX are gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The northern part of their CWA has been getting slammed on every model run, so that makes sense. I wonder what IWX and DTX are gonna do IWX has been pretty bearish on this thing so far. The row of Michigan counties in particular though would appear to be vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 Looks like no winter advisory from IWX. Would not be surprised to see amounts that would warrant it, but perhaps they are banking on lessened impacts on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like no winter advisory from IWX. Would not be surprised to see amounts that would warrant it, but perhaps they are banking on lessened impacts on roads. The need for one vs not needing one will probably be more obvious tonight or in the morning, but if the snow would accumulate on the roads it would be very slushy and cause a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Another day another thunderstorm with a temp under 50. Might have some hail with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, Stebo said: Another day another thunderstorm with a temp under 50. Might have some hail with this. Had some pea-sized hail just now. Thought it was sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Just now, RobertSul said: Had some pea-sized hail just now. Thought it was sleet! Yeah there is probably bigger hail with the cell west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Jonger probably about to get some hail his way, CC really at a deficit with that storm to the SW of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Jonger probably about to get some hail his way, CC really at a deficit with that storm to the SW of him. You know what guys, why don't you join me in this thread. Getting kind of lonely in there. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49911-april-5-7-snow-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: You know what guys, why don't you join me in this thread. Getting kind of lonely in there. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49911-april-5-7-snow-potential/ No! I will not talk about misery and pain. I hope it ends up being rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: No! I will not talk about misery and pain. I hope it ends up being rain Well, you're not going to have a choice because I'm moving the posts in a sec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Well, you're not going to have a choice because I'm moving the posts in a sec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 hours ago, harrisale said: If these 3km NAM snow totals are anywhere close to correct, there are going to be a lot of folks caught completely off guard in Southern Ontario. Saw tons of people lying out in the sun in the parks today. Take with a grain of weenie salt of course: 18z NAM is trying to switch YYZ to +SN as early as 22z tomorrow. I think that's really ambitious and it does have a bias of being too cold with low level temps. If things break right could be a 2-4" plastering after the drenching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 0.95" of rain today. Absolute miserable day. Almost had the feel of a snowstorm, as the rain was coming down in sheets all afternoon with the strong northeast winds. Felt a lot colder than the upper 30s. Good news is we make a run at 70 as early as Sat, and DVN thinks we have a shot at 80 on Sun if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Drove through about ten minutes of snow near Slinger, WI early this afternoon. Been driving most of the day in rain with flakes trying to mix in.Now in view of the peaks at Alpine Valley with melted flakes barely making it down, mixed with steady rain. Truck temp at 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 My car thermometer was flipping between 39 and 40, and it's usually pretty dead on accurate. In any case, that is a little cooler than I was expecting at this point. Perhaps it would suggest a quicker mix/changeover to snow than suggested by most of the models, but it's tough to say. Little doubt that the heart of the defo band flips to snow later, but the question is what happens around here just outside the core/more toward the fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 DTX As the system rotates across the ern Great Lakes, the mid level deformation should intensify/redevelop over Se Mi before exiting to the east Thurs night. The thermodynamic profile will support a period of very good snowfall rates once the change over occurs. The region that is expected to see the most snow and longest period of deformation forcing is generally along and north of an Owosso to Bad Axe line. These locals have been added to the winter storm watch for the potential for over 6 inches of snow. If the change over occurs across the Saginaw Valley a little earlier, snow totals could feasibly approach a foot over Midland/Bay counties. The remainder of the area should see anywhere from an inch to possibly 4 inches Thus afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: LOT is calling for occasional waves to 28 feet on Lake Michigan. Any thoughts on a road trip to get some pics? Twenty foot waves should look kind of cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, bowtie` said: Any thoughts on a road trip to get some pics? Twenty foot waves should look kind of cool. Wouldn't be able to go until very late afternoon/early evening, which looks to be near the end of the peak winds... unless I'd go farther east along the shore. Leaning against going but could change my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 I just chuckled, my mom texted me that the Weather Channel is calling for 6-11 inches here on their app right now. I wanna know where they are getting THAT one from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 My rain total is 0.66", a decent compromise between the wetter and drier models. The grass and perennials are ready to explode. They just need warmth. The backyard will be loaded with bright yellow daffodils by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 Not sure but it seems like the band in Indiana may be a bit farther west than progged by runs earlier today. Still going to be a while before enough cooling for mixing with/changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Not sure but it seems like the band in Indiana may be a bit farther west than progged by runs earlier today. Still going to be a while before enough cooling for mixing with/changing to snow. I suspect we'll see a fairly rapid changeover in many areas as the low closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Powerball said: I suspect we'll see a fairly rapid changeover in many areas as the low closes off. Already starting over central michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Had a few flakes mix in for a few seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Had a few flakes mix in for a few seconds. Here too, I think. Very mangled. Temps have dropped to 32-34 in extreme north central IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 DTX going around 2 inches of snow for Detroit, 2-4" for the 69 corridor, and 5-7" the thumb. Snow will be accompanied by 40-50moh wind gusts late this afternoon and early this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Still rain here. Thinking little if any snow since the changeover is so slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 snowing hard in Howell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 A little purple and green on GRLevel3 in SE Michigan. Was it snowing harder in Midland-Bay City-Saginaw before? Obviously not 100% snow up there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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