Rtd208 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Flood Watch up for parts of the Mt.Holly forecast area from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for 1-2" of rain w/locally higher amounts. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Wet week on tap. 2-4" by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Thursday storm Is supposed to be much stronger!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 48 minutes ago, rcad1 said: Thursday storm Is supposed to be much stronger!! Gfs is less than 2" for both events combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs is less than 2" for both events combined The 18z NAM was 2"+ through Wednedsay. The RGEM was wet too. The NWS is obviously on board with the heavy rain potential given the flood watch. I'd favor the the meso models as they were great on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Tuesday looks like AM heavy overrunning rains with warm front and PM scattered locally heavy showers thunderstorms with the cold front. Probably widespread 1-2 inches of rain with localized spots over 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: Tuesday looks like AM heavy overrunning rains with warm front and PM scattered locally heavy showers thunderstorms with the cold front. Probably widespread 1-2 inches of rain with localized spots over 2 inches. Per the latest ensemble forecasting, 3" of rain would be enough to cause major flood stage on the Passaic River at Pinebrook with a crest just over 21 feet late this week into the weekend. At 21 feet, widespread flooding occurs in Fairfield, including Bloomfield Avenue. Residences between Route 80 and Route 46 flood. Route 46 East in Wayne is shut down. Commercial properties on Bloomfield Avenue in West Caldwell are flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The Friday system almost looks like a cut off that just sits and spins-some areas could see prolific amounts with that set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The 12z NAM focuses the heaviest rain with the warm front overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The Friday system almost looks like a cut off that just sits and spins-some areas could see prolific amounts with that set up. It is a cutoff but the track to our NW makes this more of a slow moving cutter rather than a track to our South which would keep the LLJ focused over our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Am I right to assume that the 00z Euro was a rather dry run for the late week storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The 3k NAM has several rounds of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow after the warm front passes. Quite a bit of elevated instability should be around with modest shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Per the latest ensemble forecasting, 3" of rain would be enough to cause major flood stage on the Passaic River at Pinebrook with a crest just over 21 feet late this week into the weekend. At 21 feet, widespread flooding occurs in Fairfield, including Bloomfield Avenue. Residences between Route 80 and Route 46 flood. Route 46 East in Wayne is shut down. Commercial properties on Bloomfield Avenue in West Caldwell are flooded. I'm guessing this map will change this afternoon? http://www.weather.gov/marfc/Flood_Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 warm fronts are a no brainer around here. go wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: warm fronts are a no brainer around here. go wet And stormy this time of year especially out on the island. Some of our best surprise severe events of all time have been spring warm fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I'm guessing this map will change this afternoon? http://www.weather.gov/marfc/Flood_Outlook It has, was updated at 11:28AM. It's not so much the 1-2" of rain for tonight but it's the combination of whatever snowpack still exists in the far interior which helps feed the reservoirs, the recent wet pattern which has kept soil moisture high and that we could get not just one, but two more significant events in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The 12z RGEM agrees with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The 12z GEFS mean is solidly 1"+ for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 GEFS mean still solid for both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It has, was updated at 11:28AM. It's not so much the 1-2" of rain for tonight but it's the combination of whatever snowpack still exists in the far interior which helps feed the reservoirs, the recent wet pattern which has kept soil moisture high and that we could get not just one, but two more significant events in short order. Boom, there you have it updated. Agreed on things being wet now, the Wallkill was the highest is been for a number of years around here Fri night into Sat morning. We'll see how high it goes by the end of the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 12z UKMET on board too http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&hi=000&hf=120&type=PR&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Both storms combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 as much as it pains me to say this i have doubts about the progress of the surface warm front tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Guess my flight out of PHL at 1 PM Thursday could be in jeopardy. The winds are concerning not so much the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Is it me, or has this first batch of rain arrived much earlier than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 3 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Is it me, or has this first batch of rain arrived much earlier than expected? 1:30am and the back edge of the heavy rain is already near Trenton. This is in and out very quickly, with probably only around a half inch of rain. There will be some scattered downpours during the afternoon, but overall this won't be the huge rainstorm that was advertised. Thursday's storm looks as if it will be a much bigger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Pouring here, 0.53" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 1.17" here, started around 12:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Have picked up 1.18" of rain since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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