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Central PA - December 2017


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Merry Christmas everyone, I suppose i'll throw up a couple snow pics since it is a white Christmas for a change. The high wind made measuring pretty difficult, but multiple measurements around the yard yielded a rough average of 3.5"... a pretty decent event and probably the best Xmas Eve/Day snowfall since 2002 for me (that's been 15 years already?). Temps have really fallen sharply, the snow started last night as a heavy wet 32/33ºF snow and eventually transitioned to a powder snow that is blowing around a good bit.

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IMG_2394.thumb.jpg.fcba29aed138be4ddb2ef2dedd3e772d.jpg

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Please. No snow till Sunday. I have 2 funerals to attend, likely one on Friday and one on Saturday. First some good family friends lost their mother on Christmas Eve, then we lost my father-in-law on Christmas morning. To say It's a tough holiday season is an understatement. 

Bad enough it's going to be frigid, I just really don't want to deal with heavy snow on top of it... :(

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

So what is going on with this...It's awful quiet. Has the models slowed this storm down? Or are the models showing 2 storms?

image.jpg

First big event for Friday/Saturday has fallen apart as the southern stream vort is getting shredded by the cold and not joining up w/ then northern stream.  They stay largely separate. 

as per 12z GFS Sun/Mon event is next in line and while 500/700 panels look much better, but still separate and not close to a capture.  They look similar to what the biggie that was modeled a few days ago looked like, and that is now poof...so IMO more changes need to happen (ie northern energy combining and tugging the southern stream north.  Possible... yes, as there's plenty of time....but after the last few days, I'm glad im playing with house money....cause I'd be homeless right now.

That said, its been a couple tough days of weather model watching, so proceed with caution. 

Voyager, sorry for the losses.  Good luck with everything going on.

Hoping tonights runs can get us something as I wanna play in snow while off this week.  Ughh..

Nut

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17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

First big event for Friday/Saturday has fallen apart as the southern stream vort is getting shredded by the cold and not joining up w/ then northern stream.  They stay largely separate. 

as per 12z GFS Sun/Mon event is next in line and while 500/700 panels look much better, but still separate and not close to a capture.  They look similar to what the biggie that was modeled a few days ago looked like, and that is now poof...so IMO more changes need to happen (ie northern energy combining and tugging the southern stream north.  Possible... yes, as there's plenty of time....but after the last few days, I'm glad im playing with house money....cause I'd be homeless right now.

That said, its been a couple tough days of weather model watching, so proceed with caution. 

Voyager, sorry for the losses.  Good luck with everything going on.

Hoping tonights runs can get us something as I wanna play in snow while off this week.  Ughh..

Nut

Voyager sorry for your loss!

Nut thank you for the explanation! Keep us posted.

Looks like the latest GFS run there was some changes. Just to make things interesting.

We could even maybe see a fish storm with all the cold air blocking north.

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Well this late week threat that showed a lot of promise several days ago has really.. lets say dried up as of late. A few things going on to change this. Firstly, some signs of influence from the subtropical jet and phasing in those early runs have evaporated..meaning main influence is coming from the northern stream. The MJO pulse that was progged to get into 8/1 has since evolved into a non-factor staying inside the circle, thus likely having a hand in ending up with a non-charged southern stream. Next, there is just no downstream blocking to be had via the NAO.. at all. To go with that...the western ridge, at least for the rest of this week and for the sake of the timeframe this event was supposed to happen is also relatively flat. There's just no amplification in the pattern to wind up a major storm. And lastly, the arctic cold progged is just burying the storm track.. especially with the GFS which has just been persistent in dumping a 1056+ mb high deep into the heartland of the US. There's energy to be had from the northern stream, as the Pac NW looks pretty stormy... but the very strong arctic high progged looks to squash it south. It's just a progressive, but very cold pattern in the making. GFS/Euro show some amplification building in the later ranges.. rebuilding the AK ridge and showing some overall rejuvenated NW and Pac ridging. 

But in the meantime, there still looks to be some kind of wave that presses across ahead of the dropping arctic high running through the state Saturday,  potentially bringing a light snowfall with it. Very cold temps will likely make any snow a higher ratio affair,  so we could still score something. On the 12z suite it is most evident on the Euro/Canadian/UKMET which suggest more of a swath that actually survives past western PA. GFS much drier (relegating light snowfall to the Laurels) and 12z/18z NAM doesn't really have much yet on the edge of it's range. If the more "impressive" models won out with what they have currently we're talking like a 1-3" type event for most and maybe a bit more in the Laurel's with a favorable upslope direction to the main flow. 

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