Central PA - December 2017

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm alive and well...lol

Dude. i'm tellng ya....it's a lions den down there.  So many puffed chests.  We had a little fun early this morning w/ the maps above (and sprinkled in weenie analysis), and got trolled by some that hate this and that and think anyone that posts a snow map, doesnt know better or hasnt learned yet....makes me LOL.

and when you give good anyalysis, some wont recognize, unless a chosen one says it.

I posted maps, cause you rarely see em', and it was 6am.  When everyone woke up, most got out of the wrong side of the bed IMO.

I'd stay here if "my" crew wanted to chat about it, but hasnt been much chat in here (and yeah i know its quiet weather wise, but every other forum....even the SE is in a buzz about the weather.  I lost the battle here so i go play war.... .  if only i didnt love talking about snow...

Its all good.  I can take it.  But i will tell you if this storm gets cancelled because of bad wishes over cat sitting.....I may need professional help.

Nut

 

I wish our forum was more active too, and to be honest I just don't have the time to post more than I do. 

The irony is that this is the very sub-forum where people shouldn't feel threatened to post, unless they're acting blatantly stupid. 

Here's to hoping that we ring in the new year by raising shovels as well as those champagne glasses...

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

But i will tell you if this storm gets cancelled because of bad wishes over cat sitting.....I may need professional help.

lol...that's sig worthy material right there...

Seriously though, the mid-atlantic forum is a tough one. They are very tight, and don't welcome outsiders freely.

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

lol...that's sig worthy material right there...

Seriously though, the mid-atlantic forum is a tough one. They are very tight, and don't welcome outsiders freely.

And what they don't realize is how similar our (and by "our" I'm speaking specific to the southern border counties) weather is nearly lock and step with theirs. They act like we get 130" a winter when they get 15". Truth is...if they have a really good winter, we usually do to. 

There's been a much bigger disparity between your weather and mine the past 10 years than between DC and me. 

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, Voyager said:

lol...that's sig worthy material right there...

Seriously though, the mid-atlantic forum is a tough one. They are very tight, and don't welcome outsiders freely.

Put it on my headstone.....lol

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

And what they don't realize is how similar our (and by "our" I'm speaking specific to the southern border counties) weather is nearly lock and step with theirs. They act like we get 130" a winter when they get 15". Truth is...if they have a really good winter, we usually do to. 

There's been a much bigger disparity between your weather and mine the past 10 years than between DC and me. 

I agree...

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

And what they don't realize is how similar our (and by "our" I'm speaking specific to the southern border counties) weather is nearly lock and step with theirs. They act like we get 130" a winter when they get 15". Truth is...if they have a really good winter, we usually do to. 

There's been a much bigger disparity between your weather and mine the past 10 years than between DC and me. 

Yeah, I gave up on going there. Went in there once and asked a question, and phin and several others attacked. They were like “don’t you get 40 inches a winter, be happy.”

 

They tend to think we get a two foot  storm every year when I  reality DC and that area has done better than me recently. I’d rather get a mega 12-24 inch storm every two years like they have been than the infinite 1 inch events that gets me to my total here. 

  

[Itstrainingtime]

If they were on the sidelines watching as many times as Pittsburgh has the past 10 years there would be massive casualties down there. I've said this before in this space...mega storms seem to bring a sense of entitlement. My reality entering this century was I should reasonably expect a double-digit snowstorm about once per decade. I don't have records (Sauss does) but I'm probably around 10 such storms in the past 17 years. I could go the next 53 winters without a huge snowstorm and be on track with climo from the 1900s. That puts things in perspective, and it isn't lost on me like it apparently is with some others. 

[Voyager]

True stuff in these last few posts. How many double digits snowstorms has 40s had over such places like Williamsport and State College (and Pittsburgh as well) since the turn of the century? It would be interesting to see the exact numbers, as we know they've had more than us up here above 40n in recent years.

 

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

If they were on the sidelines watching as many times as Pittsburgh has the past 10 years there would be massive casualties down there. I've said this before in this space...mega storms seem to bring a sense of entitlement. My reality entering this century was I should reasonably expect a double-digit snowstorm about once per decade. I don't have records (Sauss does) but I'm probably around 10 such storms in the past 17 years. I could go the next 53 winters without a huge snowstorm and be on track with climo from the 1900s. That puts things in perspective, and it isn't lost on me like it apparently is with some others. 

Haven’t had a 10+ storm since 2010, so 8 years. We are supposed to get an 8-12 event every 2 years and I don’t think we’ve even had that in that span.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Haven’t had a 10+ storm since 2010, so 8 years. We are supposed to get an 8-12 event every 2 years and I don’t think we’ve even had that in that span.

wow.  Yet if you share that in the MA forum....

You'll need my armour to protect you....

 

E

[Rd9108]

36 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wow.  Yet if you share that in the MA forum....

You'll need my armour to protect you....

 

E

It seems like ever since I started this hobby back in 2010 after the blizzards ,my area gas gotten screwed. The Mid Atlantic has no idea how frustrating it is when you're getting 1-3 inches and 50 miles east if that is getting 12+. That's just the nature of where my forum lives except a few lucky few who live in WV and got crushed with 2 feet in 2015. I was stuck watching radar echoes just disappear as soon as it hits the county line. Rant over. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

47 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wow.  Yet if you share that in the MA forum....

You'll need my armour to protect you....

 

E

There are some pretty knowledgeable folks that post there so I do enjoy reading the analysis but typically refrain from posting due to the hostile environment. By the treatment of folks from outside the region you'd think we can actually effect the outcome. I get it if someone shows up gloating about snow while it rains in your backyard but come on. 

[pasnownut]

30 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It seems like ever since I started this hobby back in 2010 after the blizzards ,my area gas gotten screwed. The Mid Atlantic has no idea how frustrating it is when you're getting 1-3 inches and 50 miles east if that is getting 12+. That's just the nature of where my forum lives except a few lucky few who live in WV and got crushed with 2 feet in 2015. I was stuck watching radar echoes just disappear as soon as it hits the county line. Rant over. 

and I was always jealous of watching KPIT radar echos seeing days and days of seeming lake effect snow....

guess natsomuch?  Next week should synoptically get all of us in one way or another.

Sure hope so.

Nut

[canderson]

It's gonna be coooold in PA for the last week of December, egads. 

Not really sold on any snow for the LSV other than a nuisance inch or so overnight Christmas Eve/Christmas morning. 

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

and I was always jealous of watching KPIT radar echos seeing days and days of seeming lake effect snow....

guess natsomuch?  Next week should synoptically get all of us in one way or another.

Sure hope so.

Nut

Haha. Those echos usually lead to 1-2 inches. We get days and days of it, but after a while an inch every day gets old. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Haha. Those echos usually lead to 1-2 inches. We get days and days of it, but after a while an inch every day gets old. 

Try me pal.....

For me theres nothin better than a fresh winter scene, and snow... on snow....

on snow....

 

on snow...

 

on snow.  Get my drift ............

(see what i did there....drift...lol)  

Its happy hour and im still at work wrapping up stuff for my break, so yeah im a little giddy right now.

Nut

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

It seems like ever since I started this hobby back in 2010 after the blizzards ,my area gas gotten screwed. The Mid Atlantic has no idea how frustrating it is when you're getting 1-3 inches and 50 miles east if that is getting 12+. That's just the nature of where my forum lives except a few lucky few who live in WV and got crushed with 2 feet in 2015. I was stuck watching radar echoes just disappear as soon as it hits the county line. Rant over. 

I feel your pain. It was one of the 2010 storms where the heavy echos were moving due north and as soon as they hit the Blue Mountain (Lehigh/Schuylkill County line) they just magically dried up. We got 2 inches while just 35 miles away, Allentown got 20.

[Anduril]

Man ya'll are a bunch of debbie downers tonight talking about drying up storms Lets be positive...there's like a 10% chance some of us see snow sometime before the new year!

[MAG5035]

Lol at Nut getting everyone fired up about the snow maps yesterday. I think a sizable majority of us in these forums generally know the disclaimer of posting the snow maps at long range, or even shorter range for that matter. With that said, it's becoming evident that the period centering around Dec 30 or so is showing a strong signal for a potential wide reaching snow and ice event.. with the GFS leading the charge in terms of significance but it's also been there on the Euro too. 0z suite continues this trend, GFS has a major winter storm and the overall run was a thing of beauty for cold and snow lovers. Euro/Canadian have this Dec 30ish storm but look more GFS-y with it. Euro still had a half decent snow event into C-PA and was more Mid-Atlantic friendly than the more wound up GFS. I think our region would still do well with a GFS type scenario.. lots of cold to be available and models have been putting ample Canadian high pressure above us. Long ways to go with that potential threat, but the pattern looks quite favorable.

In the much shorter term, all models are now picking up this separate, tailing wave Christmas eve into Christmas Day. They're not particularly impressive with snowfall though, esp Sus Valley but it is there. Kind of an inverted trough look to it. I still think the potential of a wave of light snowfall running through just in time for Christmas is quite achievable for most of us.

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol at Nut getting everyone fired up about the snow maps yesterday. I think a sizable majority of us in these forums generally know the disclaimer of posting the snow maps at long range, or even shorter range for that matter. With that said, it's becoming evident that the period centering around Dec 30 or so is showing a strong signal for a potential wide reaching snow and ice event.. with the GFS leading the charge in terms of significance but it's also been there on the Euro too. 0z suite continues this trend, GFS has a major winter storm and the overall run was a thing of beauty for cold and snow lovers. Euro/Canadian have this Dec 30ish storm but look more GFS-y with it. Euro still had a half decent snow event into C-PA and was more Mid-Atlantic friendly than the more wound up GFS. I think our region would still do well with a GFS type scenario.. lots of cold to be available and models have been putting ample Canadian high pressure above us. Long ways to go with that potential threat, but the pattern looks quite favorable.

In the much shorter term, all models are now picking up this separate, tailing wave Christmas eve into Christmas Day. They're not particularly impressive with snowfall though, esp Sus Valley but it is there. Kind of an inverted trough look to it. I still think the potential of a wave of light snowfall running through just in time for Christmas is quite achievable for most of us.

Dats me....dats me.  Find a pot.....stur it uPP!!  

it really wasnt a big deal as most were asleep when a few of us did it (us old folks tend wake early sometimes), but once the rest of the crew got up....the banter made the snowball grow rather well....and then every opinion on how the forum should be run was shared.  If only i were home and had a cocktail and popcorn in my hands...lol

back to the weather, yeah, looking over the overnights....the consistancy of something big in the area has been locked in for several days....just got to work out the details as everone's backyard is quite sacred in these events (and rightfully so....).

and i have all week of to track it (and play).  gonna be fun.

Ok, im headed to the lions den....wish me luck....

 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Dats me....dats me.  Find a pot.....stur it uPP!!  

it really wasnt a big deal as most were asleep when a few of us did it (us old folks tend wake early sometimes), but once the rest of the crew got up....the banter made the snowball grow rather well....and then every opinion on how the forum should be run was shared.  If only i were home and had a cocktail and popcorn in my hands...lol

back to the weather, yeah, looking over the overnights....the consistancy of something big in the area has been locked in for several days....just got to work out the details as everone's backyard is quite sacred in these events (and rightfully so....).

and i have all week of to track it (and play).  gonna be fun.

Ok, im headed to the lions den....wish me luck....

 

Should be a fun week ahead, like I said yesterday, I'm off as well. Informed my wife last night she would be sharing me with my weather weenies.

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Should be a fun week ahead, like I said yesterday, I'm off as well. Informed my wife last night she would be sharing me with my weather weenies.

thats awesome.  Then there's at least 2 of us trackin next week....whoohoo.

 

[pawatch]

It's ashame all that precipitation coming through tomorrow is going to waste. Would have made for a nice hit.

Here is something for you Nut.

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, pawatch said:

It's ashame all that precipitation coming through tomorrow is going to waste. Would have made for a nice hit.

yeah no doubt...but 12z NAM nest is continuing the theme of still trying to conjure up a nice little Christmas miracle for many here....except us southern tier folk.  Nice little vort riding caboose on that system and making christmas white for a bunch.  this has been trending for the last 36 hours or so...

[MAG5035]

Well the 12z Euro should have everyone in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic's attention, a major coastal on this run. Still D8 or so though.  

[Itstrainingtime]

47 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well the 12z Euro should have everyone in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic's attention, a major coastal on this run. Still D8 or so though.  

Question - leading into winter a lot of mets were saying that the general pattern this winter would not be conducive to coastal storms. Now here we are looking at a POTENTIAL coastal storm forming before we normally get into our climatoligally favorable season for major east coast snowstorms. So, has the pattern evolved differently from what was originally thought, or is this simply the case of a fluke in a non-conducive pattern? 

[pasnownut]

6 hours ago, pawatch said:

It's ashame all that precipitation coming through tomorrow is going to waste. Would have made for a nice hit.

Here is something for you Nut.

looks more for YOU there buddy boy....

Nut

[Voyager]

One more day in Phoenix, and then it's back to PA...just in time for the winter festivities.

[MAG5035]

34 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Question - leading into winter a lot of mets were saying that the general pattern this winter would not be conducive to coastal storms. Now here we are looking at a POTENTIAL coastal storm forming before we normally get into our climatoligally favorable season for major east coast snowstorms. So, has the pattern evolved differently from what was originally thought, or is this simply the case of a fluke in a non-conducive pattern? 

A lot of times we can get into a northern branch dominated and progressive storm pattern which can make it harder for seeing coastal storms develop (or at least the bigger ones) during Nina winters, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we can't get them as long as we have a favorable pattern alignment. This is also a relatively weak nina episode thus far so the direct influence isn't as clear cut, and can be more influenced by other traditional pattern drivers in the higher latitudes, your PNA/EPO/NAO,etc vs say a strong nina maybe having more of an influence on those pattern drivers. So we can either have a really good or really crappy pattern. We have a fairly friendly Pac (-EPO) and some high heights over the top to drop cold down looking forward to next week and beyond, so we will be plenty cold and we will have opportunities.

 One thing nina or neutral conditions can take away from is a robust subtropical southern stream, but we can still see episodes of the southern stream being more active and helping charge up storms more. So yea there is a good chance we get a lot of smaller events such as the clipper we had two Wednesdays ago.. but we can still get phased or partial phased shortwaves that turn into big storms. The grand example of a weaker La-nina of comparable magnitude to what we have now being successful for snow in our area is the 95-96 winter, with the 96 blizzard headlining that winter of course.

[pasnownut]

45 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

A lot of times we can get into a northern branch dominated and progressive storm pattern which can make it harder for seeing coastal storms develop (or at least the bigger ones) during Nina winters, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we can't get them as long as we have a favorable pattern alignment. This is also a relatively weak nina episode thus far so the direct influence isn't as clear cut, and can be more influenced by other traditional pattern drivers in the higher latitudes, your PNA/EPO/NAO,etc vs say a strong nina maybe having more of an influence on those pattern drivers. So we can either have a really good or really crappy pattern. We have a fairly friendly Pac (-EPO) and some high heights over the top to drop cold down looking forward to next week and beyond, so we will be plenty cold and we will have opportunities.

 One thing nina or neutral conditions can take away from is a robust subtropical southern stream, but we can still see episodes of the southern stream being more active and helping charge up storms more. So yea there is a good chance we get a lot of smaller events such as the clipper we had two Wednesdays ago.. but we can still get phased or partial phased shortwaves that turn into big storms. The grand example of a weaker La-nina of comparable magnitude to what we have now being successful for snow in our area is the 95-96 winter, with the 96 blizzard headlining that winter of course.

95-96'

You know your speakin dirty to us.....

ya tease....