Jmister Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017 Areas affected...western New York through central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 011741Z - 011845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm threat with damaging wind and a few tornadoes should continue to expand eastward into western NY and central PA this afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be issued soon. DISCUSSION...Organized line of storms with embedded mesovortices and bowing segments from Lake Erie through extreme eastern OH is moving east at around 40 kt. VWP data and special Pittsburg RAOB show very favorable wind profiles for embedded supercells with large 0-1 km hodographs. Latest visible imagery also show numerous cloud breaks which will promote further destabilization of the boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon. ..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 41077867 42167927 43067828 42867709 40577680 39797736 39757878 41077867 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 80/66 at AOO. Seems like mid level lapse rates are also slowly improving with time with the approach of the ULL/cooling aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 81/63 at MDT with broken clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 73/64 with mostly cloudy skies in State College. The breeze has picked up markedly over the last 30 minutes. If anything discreet is going to pop up ahead of the main line, this will be the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Sun is now peaking out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Can't post link but tornado watch up for areas from Scranton SW to Johnstown and everything N/NW. Follows mountains down from Scranton, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0185.html Tornado watch issued. 50% prob 2+ tornadoes, 30% at least 1 EF2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Jmister said: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0185.html Tornado watch issued. 50% prob 2+ tornadoes, 30% at least 1 EF2+ That's on par with our usual warnings. Either way, it's gonna get nasty with that squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Will be really interesting to see if anything discrete can pop up. Out ahead of the main line the environment is becoming favorable as breaks of sun have occurred and hodographs are becoming quite enlarged. The issue, however, is right now we only have the main line which does have embedded pockets of rotation which could become further enhanced as the line moves into the more favorable environment. LCL's are actually lower too across central PA (down to 750m). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Residual capping out ahead of the line looks like it will probably hold most discrete development in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Full sun here if that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Cell rotation near James City. TOR warning just went up for it and Wilcox (very far NW region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Quote ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN COUNTY... At 417 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Betula, moving east at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated strong rotation. Um, that's not the requirement for a PDS warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Any confirmation on that "strong and dangerous" tornado in Mckean and Potter county? The local news has been covering that tornado warning for the last hour. Here is video as the storm moved through Hamburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 This has to be one of the longest issued Severe Thunderstorm Warning message I've seen. 452 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Centre County in central Pennsylvania... Clinton County in north central Pennsylvania... * Until 645 PM EDT * At 451 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Emporium to Prince Gallitzin State Park, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just starting to get hit with this line of storms, it's already been pretty breezy out ahead of it. Def am somewhat worried about some of the pine trees. At any rate, damaging winds and a potential QLCS spinup appears to be the main threat at this juncture with this severe line. Shear and helicity are very high in central PA as per mesoanalysis. Fortunately CAPE numbers are fairly low, lending to a good bit of cloud cover over most of the region today. This could have really been a significant tornado threat otherwise with good heating and probable discrete supercells. Will have to continue to keep an eye out as this presses towards the Susquehanna Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Tons of damage reports coming out of Clearfield county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Looking at current radar trends, the worst of the storms may skate by to my northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The bottom 1/3 of this line is collapsing faster than the Atlanta Falcons. it just rained in hbg - that should about cancel any severe threats here save for the wind as it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Tons of damage reports coming out of Clearfield county.Centre and Clearfield got rocked, 80 mph report just south of State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 This completely collapsed - holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Crazy windy in State College as the line passed through. My guess is 60mph or so. We lost power until just now which is almost unheard of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Looks like there's an decent supercell over South Central PA, rotation has been increasing for the past half hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Man, absolute bust in Carlisle. Had a few drops around 4-430pm but nothing after that other than a bit windy at times. Just got back to Camp Hill and it rained a bit but nothing major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Tornado Warning west Harrisburg on the supercell, the environment over the Susquahanna Valley is favorable for significant tornadoes, as this storms moves out of the mountains. Already has an very strong signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, JoJo said: Tornado Warning west Harrisburg on the supercell, the environment over the Susquahanna Valley is favorable for significant tornadoes, as this storms moves out of the mountains. Already has an very strong signature It should miss hbg proper to the NW, but that cell looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 The wind was mostly a non-issue around here with the line of severe storms but certainly a heavy rainfall with pretty robust runoff. The next valley over into NW Huntingdon County was a different story though. Apparently the wind got tapped down there.. as some spots were a bit of a wreck. Route 45 between Spruce Creek and Franklinville (roughly 20ish miles SW of State College) had multiple trees down. The one road that enters into Rothrock State Forest a couple miles north of the village of Spruce Creek had approx at my count 8 pines that were sheared by the winds (definitely straight line). One of the trees was a 75-100ft Hemlock tree. Fortunately none of the big Hemlocks around the place my family has down there across the creek from the state forest/picnic area got taken out.. cuz they likely would have hit the house. My lowball estimate on windspeed would be 60-70mph or so type winds. I didn't see the type of widespread downed trees on that Route 45 corridor that would indicate to me that the winds were much higher than that. Still though.. it was pretty notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Just had power come back on, just crazy widespread damage all over county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 I saw quite a few small trees down around here. My power went out last night during the squall; it was still out when I left this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 Probably windier here this afternoon than it was with those storms yesterday haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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