daxx Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Anybody feel that earthquake rumble through about 4:45 pm or 4:50 pm? Yep felt it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Eric Horst from Millersville said a 2.7 earthquake occurred along a known fault line just south of Conestoga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Just got from a long walk on the Conewago Trail near Etown. Didn't feel a dang thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Had a big storm roll through last night a bit before 4 am. Pea size hail, intense lightning, about .8" rain. Avtually was concerned lightning would hit the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Severe possible tomorrow, any mets have thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Severe possible tomorrow, any mets have thoughts? Its an shocker, i guess the Mets are out and about. But from the looks what i am seeing and models, Day 3 Marginal, Day 2 Slight, then 2nd Day 2 went to Enhanced, will not be shocked based on upcoming runs that an moderate could be need either at the 2AM Day 1 or and later outlook. Very small area in West and Central PA up to Western NY. Looks like localized outbreak type day with mix of wind damage, large hail, and tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Severe possible tomorrow, any mets have thoughts? There's certainly a good amount of low-level moisture in the western half of PA with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Deep layer shear looks pretty impressive for tomorrow as well as some curvy 0-3 km hodographs. I think the biggest issue (per usual in the northeast) will be whether sufficient instability will be present ahead of the convection. One potential issue is how persistent the easterly flow near and east of State College will be, where low-level clouds could limit instability. You can see that there's currently a backdoor front somewhere in eastern PA with temperatures in the low 60s to low 50s and dew points in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Wow, parameters are pretty impressive for this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Wow, parameters are pretty impressive for this part of the country. Mostly for entertainment, here is the 3km NAM for a point in Clearfield County Monday afternoon. Always interesting to see > 500 m^2/s^2 0-1 km SRH and > 1000 J/kg CAPE in a forecast sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Storms are going to be absolutely flying tomorrow in this area. Consensus on a 700 mb jet of 60-80 kts positioning itself over W/Central PA and W NY through the afternoon. I can't imagine 75/66 at IDI at 02z is all that common in this region with a system of this intensity waiting to shift NE, especially with a lack of an organized MCS to the west. That corridor of backing low level flow showing up on the higher res guidance is certainly intriguing with the strength of the H925-H85 flow being forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Love to have some heavyweights from severe threads here, thinking of going West tomorrow to nose around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I thought there would be some chatter with the potential later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Saussman, good morning! I'm not crazy with potential of high end severe, but certainly some opportunity for interesting weather later today. Clouds are thinning here and over most of CPA, but not Sure we acquire instability necessary for high end severe. That being said, most other parameters are very favorable for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 So it sounds like my area is gonna see some potentionally nasty weather later today. Gonna have to keep an eye on the sky and hopefully power isn't knocked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Some breaks in the stratocumulus here to the east but not much sun so far. We'll need pretty substantial surface heating to realize any discrete supercells later on, as the mid-level lapse rates are not that impressive on the 12z soundings from PIT and IAD. Most guidance is pretty optimistic for a QLCS during the early evening in central PA with strong forcing ahead of the cold front, and we could see some strong gusts with 60+ kt 850 mb winds mixing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Some breaks in the stratocumulus here to the east but not much sun so far. We'll need pretty substantial surface heating to realize any discrete supercells later on, as the mid-level lapse rates are not that impressive on the 12z soundings from PIT and IAD. Most guidance is pretty optimistic for a QLCS during the early evening in central PA with strong forcing ahead of the cold front, and we could see some strong gusts with 60+ kt 850 mb winds mixing down. What does SPC see that has them so bullish on TOR odds over large area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: What does SPC see that has them so bullish on TOR odds over large area? Well 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity are very high later in the afternoon so with some instability you can always get QLCS tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 42 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Saussman, good morning! I'm not crazy with potential of high end severe, but certainly some opportunity for interesting weather later today. Clouds are thinning here and over most of CPA, but not Sure we acquire instability necessary for high end severe. That being said, most other parameters are very favorable for severe. that was my line of thinking as well. Its not clearing that fast here but who knows. I did send out a quick brief to our fire officers this morning so they keep an eye on it. Edit- i'm not overly concerned about tornadoes, But i know how the wind gets around my area with these types of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Well 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity are very high later in the afternoon so with some instability you can always get QLCS tornadoes. Gotcha, thanks for chiming in. Great info as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Quite the interesting setup later this afternoon. Bufkit forecast soundings are quite impressive with very large hodographs thanks to very strong speed shear and presence of low-level directional shear. Should be some great forcing as well thanks to decent height falls and potent mid-level jet streak pushing into the region. While instability won't be the greatest, the degree of forcing and jet dynamics should compensate a bit. Some flags, however, are the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates which will work to hold instability back a bit, storm mode looks to become linear rather quickly which could inhibit tornado potential, LCL's look on the higher side which could further hurt tornado potential as well. But like heavy_wx said, given the parameters QLCS tornadoes are certainly possible in this type of environment. I wonder if the hail aspect of this is being underplayed. Bufkit soundings are showing between 400-500 J/KG of hail cape across PA which is pretty impressive...especially considering the degree of helicity. I think though we should see a rather impressive squall line develop and given degree of low-level winds probably see quite a few damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 hmm although some RAP soundings do show 700-500mb lapse rates up around 6.5 C/KM to 7 C/KM which actually isn't really horrific at all. Some soundings even have an inverted-v look which would also limit tornado potential but could really enhance damaging wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Cloud cover does seem to be major fly in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Sun is out here with blue skies overhead. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Brightening here, but still no full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Given degree of dynamics full sun isn't entirely a necessity, however, it certainly would help...especially if you're looking for a more widespread outbreak potential but given degree of dynamics and forcing several hundred J of cape I think should more than suffice. Just need enough buoyancy for updrafts to be able to be strong enough to utilize the shear aloft and not topple over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Meso out for PIT and enviros. I think the heavy stuff stays NW of the lower valley. A friend (well an acquaintance, hadn't talked for a few years) was killed in the Saturday night tornado in East Texas, hope all you guys keep safe this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: Meso out for PIT and enviros. I think the heavy stuff stays NW of the lower valley. A friend (well an acquaintance, hadn't talked for a few years) was killed in the Saturday night tornado in East Texas, hope all you guys keep safe this evening. sorry to hear man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Meso out for PIT and enviros. I think the heavy stuff stays NW of the lower valley. A friend (well an acquaintance, hadn't talked for a few years) was killed in the Saturday night tornado in East Texas, hope all you guys keep safe this evening. Sorry to hear that man, this stuff is only fun when all are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 41 minutes ago, canderson said: Meso out for PIT and enviros. I think the heavy stuff stays NW of the lower valley. A friend (well an acquaintance, hadn't talked for a few years) was killed in the Saturday night tornado in East Texas, hope all you guys keep safe this evening. sorry to hear ditto...this is only fun when everyone is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Clouds seemingly going to be stubborn all day up here, so imagine that is going to greatly hinder instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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