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April 2nd-3rd severe weather outbreak


LithiaWx

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...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR...

Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northeastern Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northeastern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 805 AM CDT...a wake low is beginning to develop over Northeast
Mississippi. The wake low will be capable producing winds at least
40 mph possibly as high as 50 mph.

 

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The velocity has gotten noisy now with the cell associated with the TW in Fulton.  I am under the impression the rotation was a brief spin up.  However, this line is quasi-linear cells in make up so, any of the cells can start to rotate briefly with a possible tornado as it continues to approach Atlanta.

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This coming Wed has MHX NWS spooked havent seen a AFD like this in a while....

Wednesday through Thursday...Dangerous severe weather aprroach
possible during this period. Large scale upper trough
amplification is expected over the Eastern US Wed/Thur in
response to upstream flow and phasing jet streams. This will
result in powerful cyclogenesis across the central Appalachian
region to the lower Great Lakes through Thursday. Some timing
differences remain with exact placement of synoptic features
during this time frame, though it appears that a potentially
widespread severe weather outbreak could affect the region. The
aforementioned trough attains a strong negative tilt as it
swings through the Southeast US and as a result deep rich
moisture gets advected into the region in tandem with very
strong dynamics to support severe thunderstorms. Tremendous
height and pressure falls occur early Thursday as the sfc low
deepens to around 980MB to the north. 03/00Z GFS/CMC/ECM global
suite continue to indicate 850H flow of 50-70 kt aided by 110+
kt 300MB jet, and PW values AOA 1.5". Even if timing of the
severe threat is relegated to Wednesday night and early
Thursday, instability parameters are quite high due to the sharp
height falls yielding steep mid level lapse rates, and sfc TD`s
rising through the 60s overnight Wednesday. Hodographs are
quite troubling in that strong SRH values aoa 400 M2/S2 are fcst
by the NAM/ECMWF with low LCLs present. If all these
ingredients come together the threat for a few strong tornadoes
and strong damaging winds would be present.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
101 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
1230 PM     TORNADO          1 W GRIFFIN             33.25N  84.27W  
04/03/2017                   SPALDING           GA   AMATEUR RADIO     
  
            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN... SEVERAL HOUSES   
            DAMAGED WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED INSUDE NEAR INTERSECTION OF   
            POPULAR STREET AND 13TH STREET IN GRIFFIN   

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mcd0420.gif

 

 Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat appears to be increasing ahead of a
   progressive MCS from eastern GA into SC.  Tornado watch may be
   issued soon to address this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Convective temperatures appear to have been breached
   across the warm sector over central GA well ahead of a progressive
   MCS.  Convection is evolving/deepening within a strongly sheared and
   increasingly buoyant air mass that should support supercell
   development.  A few updrafts have penetrated levels necessary for
   lightning discharge and further maturation is expected over the next
   few hours.  There is increasing concern that a few tornadic
   supercells will evolve ahead of the forced line and spread into SC
   later this afternoon.  Isolated QLCS tornadoes and wind damage may
   also be noted along the squall line.  Tornado watch will likely be
   required to address this threat.
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Once again a decent couplet + TOR warning blew its energy on Carroll County and was all worn out by the time it hit me in western Douglas County.  20 miles west of here people were posting pics on social media of SVR winds, tree damage, a fire station with structural damage - we got regular non-SVR-levels of wind blasts and some moderate rain.  I'm not complaining, there are still plenty of small branches to pick up :)

I've seen some comments elsewhere to the effect that tornado touchdown report(s) in Paulding County were a hoax call to EMS?

Now to see how much this cloud cover hanging around impacts the afternoon heating.  There's still light rain with intermittent thunder.

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