LithiaWx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Moderate risk today for LA. Enhanced risk spreads across the SE tomorrow!!! Stay frosty friends!!! edited: High Risk day 1 mod Risk day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 It's gonna be a long week in terms of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Areas in Texas and Louisiana have already been upgraded to a high risk this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Moderate mainly in south Alabama on the new Day 2. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... A line of severe thunderstorms capable of particularly damaging winds and tornadoes will be ongoing at 12Z Monday roughly from northwest AL into southern MS. Although the storm mode will be mostly linear along the front, embedded circulations and QLCS tornadoes are expected given strong shear profiles. In addition, discrete supercells may form ahead of the line, especially across the Moderate Risk area where instability will be greatest. A few strong tornadoes are possible in this corridor. There are predictability issues with the initial position of the early day storms. If they are farther west than expected, a more widespread wind threat could exist farther northwest than currently forecast. ...Eastern GA into SC... Several models support the idea of supercells forming along the returning warm front across eastern GA into western SC during the day. Forecast sounding show impressive hodographs supportive of supercell tornadoes given the favorable instability profiles. As such, have expanded the Enhanced Risk into the region. The ESRL HRRR model shows supercells developing around 18Z, moving into central SC by late afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Moderate mainly in south Alabama on the new Day 2. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... A line of severe thunderstorms capable of particularly damaging winds and tornadoes will be ongoing at 12Z Monday roughly from northwest AL into southern MS. Although the storm mode will be mostly linear along the front, embedded circulations and QLCS tornadoes are expected given strong shear profiles. In addition, discrete supercells may form ahead of the line, especially across the Moderate Risk area where instability will be greatest. A few strong tornadoes are possible in this corridor. There are predictability issues with the initial position of the early day storms. If they are farther west than expected, a more widespread wind threat could exist farther northwest than currently forecast. ...Eastern GA into SC... Several models support the idea of supercells forming along the returning warm front across eastern GA into western SC during the day. Forecast sounding show impressive hodographs supportive of supercell tornadoes given the favorable instability profiles. As such, have expanded the Enhanced Risk into the region. The ESRL HRRR model shows supercells developing around 18Z, moving into central SC by late afternoon and evening. That's a lot stronger wording for us, than the 2 weeks ago event, where there was widespread golf ball to baseball sized hail, and almost zero chance of tornados! Keep an eye to the sky tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 2, 2017 Author Share Posted April 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Moderate mainly in south Alabama on the new Day 2. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... A line of severe thunderstorms capable of particularly damaging winds and tornadoes will be ongoing at 12Z Monday roughly from northwest AL into southern MS. Although the storm mode will be mostly linear along the front, embedded circulations and QLCS tornadoes are expected given strong shear profiles. In addition, discrete supercells may form ahead of the line, especially across the Moderate Risk area where instability will be greatest. A few strong tornadoes are possible in this corridor. There are predictability issues with the initial position of the early day storms. If they are farther west than expected, a more widespread wind threat could exist farther northwest than currently forecast. ...Eastern GA into SC... Several models support the idea of supercells forming along the returning warm front across eastern GA into western SC during the day. Forecast sounding show impressive hodographs supportive of supercell tornadoes given the favorable instability profiles. As such, have expanded the Enhanced Risk into the region. The ESRL HRRR model shows supercells developing around 18Z, moving into central SC by late afternoon and evening. That the second time strong tornadoes have been mentioned as a possibility for the Atlanta metro. The potential is here for a decent severe event to unfold today and tomorrow for Dixie alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 2, 2017 Author Share Posted April 2, 2017 Central LA.....ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to the Central/Western thread for those that want to monitor today's outbreak. Things starting to get very serious near Alexandria, LA. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49901-april-1-2-severe-threat/?page=7#comment-4538485 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Obviously everyone knows how to read a forecast discussion, but this one has some pretty "severe" wording, especially for our area. Quote Now onto the interesting stuff... Very deep upper low/highly amplified trough will continue to march across the Plains tonight, dragging a cold front across the Deep South tomorrow and toward the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon. This is an impressive setup for severe weather, and will just go ahead and start out with the upgrade to Enhanced on the Day2 outlook for NE GA and most of the Upstate. Instability increases in the warm sector ahead of the front starting around noonish tomorrow, with both the NAM and GFS bringing over 1000 J/kg - significant for our area in the spring - though at slightly different times (GFS a little faster than the NAM). Deep- layer shear is impressive with 50-70kt 0-6km as both low-level (40- 50kt southerly) and upper jet (60-80kt SSW to SW) increase. At the surface, a little mesolow is progged by just about all the guidance to ride up the prefrontal trough across GA midday Monday, which will contribute to backing of surface winds across the Upstate during the afternoon hours. This results in some out of this world helicity values over over 600 m2/s2 during peak heating tomorrow. Resulting STPs even on the more conservative GFS are above 3 across the entire Upstate and NE GA, with even higher values on the NAM. This is a pretty big deal for the Upstate/Southern Appalachians where these kinds of parameters aren`t often observed. Looking at reflectivity and updraft helicity forecasts, it is very concerning. At the minimum, a squall line with embedded supercells can be expected, but discrete supercells certainly not out of the question with a strongly curved hodograph. As the trough digs, upper jet will bring upper winds around to the S instead of SSW, which would be more supportive of a squall line. Indeed, the WRF NMM has BOTH - supercells moving across the area mid-afternoon followed by a squall line moving through in the evening. Either/both certainly possible with still some uncertainty in timing, but convective chances ramp up quickly after noon and into the mid-afternoon hours, right now peak looks around 21z/5p (rush hour). Widespread damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes (cannot rule out isolated strong) can be expected with these storms tomorrow. Cannot under-emphasize the importance of going over safety plans especially with kids who may be home alone tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 GSP going all in tomorrow.We'll see. -Out of this world helicity -This is a pretty big deal -It is very concerning -Importance of going over safety plans especially with kids who may be home alone tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Thing to really watch out for tomorrow will be any discrete storms developing along the warm front as those may have the highest potentail for producing tornadoes. Between Monday and Wednesday, this could be the biggest severe threat the SE has seen since April 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 9m9 minutes ago Preliminary Futurecast of tomorrow's severe storms and threats. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wxaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Solak said: Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 9m9 minutes ago Preliminary Futurecast of tomorrow's severe storms and threats. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wxaware That doesn't look that special!? When events get overhyped, sometimes they come up a little short on expectations, this case, that's a good thing! It's supposed to be cloudy and drizzly in tomorrow AM, that should limit instability??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That doesn't look that special!? When events get overhyped, sometimes they come up a little short on expectations, this case, that's a good thing! It's supposed to be cloudy and drizzly in tomorrow AM, that should limit instability??? 600 shear value is nearly unheard of for around here so any potential overhype is worth it imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 If you have any doubt about extreme shear and what it does with adequate CAPE value under a cloudy sky, go to the thread for the Central Region about the current tornado outbreak in Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 2, 2017 Author Share Posted April 2, 2017 Updated original post : SPC Outlook maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Some of the signals I'm seeing from various higher res guidance and the SREF are troubling tomorrow across GA. There seems to be potential for either the ongoing MCS from tonight's convection to break up into more discrete elements or for new cells form in the warm sector. Very high shear looks to be present especially near the differential heating boundary in eastern sections where locally backed low level flow will enhance low level SRH. These cells would definitely be capable of higher end severe assuming the morning convection doesn't completely wash the warm sector out (which is still a reasonable scenario mind you). The way the trough accelerates northeastward, shifts negatively tilted with time and positions its axis right over the warm sector is consistent with some of the more potent events here in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 RAH updated HWO .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A powerful storm system will bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly Monday evening into the overnight hours of Tuesday morning. The primary severe threats will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, especially south of Highway 64. Another storm system may bring a threat of severe thunderstorms to central NC late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. The primary severe weather threats will again be damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Complex forecast tomorrow Squall line will come through in the morning-very early afternoon and won't provide much of a tornado risk unless the squall line breaks up into discrete cells or has cells develop ahead of it. Looks like there will be some air mass recovery across GA/AL and it won't take much sunshine for there to be substantial instability given LLJ strength. Looks like discrete cells develop after this and provide a decent tornado risk throughout the afternoon/evening for GA/AL/SC. One thing tomorrow has that today didn't is that these cells will be more isolated and spread out over a larger area. Still a lot of uncertainties if these cells can maintain itself and mature into tornado producing supercells. Parameters are certainly there for significant tornadoes though and will need to be watched closely. Still a possibility the squall line completely ruins the setup and turns it into horse crap and useless garbage. Potential is there for some higher-end severe though including strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Doesn't look too bad when the line comes through Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Latest hi-res, RPM models, are showing super cells forming in western Upstate as early as 11AM, then through central Upstate by 12!! The main line coming through by 2 PM! Timing really speeding up, maybe helping some with the strength!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 02z HRRR has 78/69 in Macon tomorrow around 1PM with storms nearby. Some areas of East Georgia get into the 80's. Will be interesting to see the new Day 1 here in a couple of hours. There seem to be quite a few hi-res models picking up on supercells developing in East GA and moving into South Carolina in the mid-afternoon hours. If I had to guess I bet the SPC will extend the moderate risk through GA and into SC to account for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAtlanta Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 We are racing home trying to beat the storms in. Don't want to be on the road from SC to GA tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Moderate Risk down to Enhanced and 30% wind and 5% tornado, well limiting factors makes sense, but i still think this environment is potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Option B on my post (a washout) is looking increasingly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Yep. We'll see how things look in the morning. Wouldn't let the guard down just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 This has.been the year of Murphy's law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The HRRR looks very bad for GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 SPC shifted the ENH area east in the 0600Z graphics package, but no new disco issued yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, No snow for you said: The HRRR looks very bad for GSP And we've been removed from enhanced risk, go figure!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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