HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 SPC saying significant tornado development soon in latest MCD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TX AND FAR WESTERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109... VALID 021722Z - 021845Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 109 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THROUGH 1830Z, THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SURROUNDING THE LUFKIN AREA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AREAS AROUND SHREVEPORT AND NATCHITOCHES. DISCUSSION...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM NACOGDOCHES COUNTY TX TO NATCHITOCHES PARISH LA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH OPEN-WARM-SECTOR CONFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NORTHWARD TO THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING ALONG RELATED CONVERGENCE BANDS IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR, AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING TOWARD THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MATURES AHEAD OF A REMNANT SQUALL LINE CROSSING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX, TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2 NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 27 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said: Upgrade to high risk, but no huge cities involved, so The (alleged) Weather Channel drops coverage. Good job, good effort. Some more great coverage from The Weather Channel of course! Just like how they were playing an interview from the Hattiesburg tornado while an EF3 was killing 4 people in Albany, GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 1m1 minute ago 12:34pm CDT #SPC Day2 Outlook Moderate Risk: across southeast ms%2c much of sout... http://go.usa.gov/YW34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 TWC reported two killed in Beaux Bridge, LA earlier from tornado or straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Alexandria, Louisiana metro may be under the gun from the cells coming from the SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Very little in the way of stronger rotational signatures thus far, most likely culprit to the north is a lack of low level CAPE, although the cells further south also appear to be struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Z000-LAZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN LA...CENTRAL/WESTERN MS...SOUTHERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021749Z - 021945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EAST OF ONGOING TORNADO WATCH 109. WHILE NOT PRESENTLY LIKELY, THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE RISK AND WATCH PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL LA TO SOUTHERN LA CONTINUES FOSTERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BLOSSOMING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN UNCAPPED, VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. LAKE CHARLES RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MANY CELLS ALREADY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS, AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 109. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS LIMITED IN THE SHORT TERM. NEVERTHELESS, WITH 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2 BUILDING NORTHWARD, THE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL, WIND, AND TORNADOES MAY EXIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, AS STRONGER DEEP ASCENT ARRIVES, UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Would love to be a storm chaser in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 shades of Jan 22 of this year(under acheiver) as in something is missing that is holding this in check so far..still very early of course but many AFD's stated that they expected tornadoes in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 rotation increasing in the new LA cells we have to wait to see if too many are forming that may interfere with each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said: TWC reported two killed in Beaux Bridge, LA earlier from tornado or straight line winds. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 100 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0949 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 E BREAUX BRIDGE 30.28N 91.85W 04/02/2017 ST. MARTIN LA LAW ENFORCEMENT *** 2 FATAL *** MOBILE HOME WAS BLOWN OFF OF ITS FOUNDATION AND DESTROYED. MOTHER AND DAUGHTER INSIDE WERE KILLED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Possible tornado southwest of Shreveport, Louisiana currently, moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: shades of Jan 22 of this year(under acheiver) as in something is missing that is holding this in check so far..still very early of course but many AFD's stated that they expected tornadoes in the morning There was some weakness in the upper level flow being progged, but it wasn't that bad (at least when I checked yesterday), and I'd rather wait to see how the rest of the day plays out before getting ahead of ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 SPC page indicates that theire is still some degree of convective inhibition to be removed for totally surface based storms in the affected area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Should it be required, FWD will take over warning responsibilities from SHV as that tornadic sup approaches Shreveport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 This cell looks good at present sw of Shreveport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Pretty insane inflow on the cell approaching Glenmora, LA attm. That looks like it's going to be a serious, serious supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 117 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 117 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GLENMORA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... GLENMORA AROUND 120 PM CDT. ELMER AROUND 130 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SluggerWx said: Pretty insane inflow on the cell approaching Glenmora, LA attm. That looks like it's going to be a serious, serious supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SluggerWx said: Pretty insane inflow on the cell approaching Glenmora, LA attm. That looks like it's going to be a serious, serious supercell. Going to need to develop a more prominent RFD if its going to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Possible tornado southwest of Center, Texas moving Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 This was posted from another site 2 fatalities in Breaux Bridge, Louisiana following a possible tornado this morning (picture via St. Martin Parish Sheriff's Office) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 tornado warned storm shown above (NW of Chireno, TX) has a pretty good rotation at 1.5 degree tilt on KSHV radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dehrski Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Cell SW of Shreveport is getting its act back together after interacting with the cell out ahead of it. Also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Big hook on the cell near Glenmora now, isolated and should have access to some very high low level SRH near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 SPC just issued a greater than 95% Tor/Sig Tor PDS Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 PDS watch is out now 95/95 tor probs. Storm SSW of Alexandria, LA looks amazing on reflectivity, velocities are improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northern Louisiana West-central Mississippi East Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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