HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-central and southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...At first, a pair of thunderstorms moving out of Mexico will pose a threat for large, damaging hail and severe gusts. With time, additional storm development is expected on either side of the international border, moving into an environment increasingly favorable for a tornado or two as well. See SPC mesoscale discussion 396 for initial meteorological reasoning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles either side of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Del Rio TX to 45 miles east southeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Also, the MCS approaching DFW appears to be rapidly decaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 A lot of chasers starting to post on social media now the seriousness of tomorrow. I'm not saying people here should be saying the sky is gonna fall tomorrow, just weird how much caution is being used with wording in here. And especially with an area that hasn't had a major severe weather event in a few years. Other then flooding that is. I've seen a lot smaller events hyped more. Maybe the way the year has gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, bjc0303 said: storm mode and raging MCS have me tempering my expectations. And a pinch of VBV, but I am not sure how that will affect anything if at all because storm mode is already forecast to be in clusters, probably due in part to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Tornado watch out for W TX, west of San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 First Tornado Watch of the night... through 6:00 AM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-central and southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: A lot of chasers starting to post on social media now the seriousness of tomorrow. I'm not saying people here should be saying the sky is gonna fall tomorrow, just weird how much caution is being used with wording in here. And especially with an area that hasn't had a major severe weather event in a few years. Other then flooding that is. I've seen a lot smaller events hyped more. Maybe the way the year has gone? For rather obvious reasons... chasers will hype a lot. Don't believe me? Check numerous PDS tor soundings on social media as a meteorologist it is important to try not getting caught up in hype games. High end potential exists but you have to consider the failure modes. Tomorrow could be a pretty epic day; last I checked however it seems some of the wrinkles will keep it from being an outbreak (of discrete tornadoes, that is). chasers and enthusiasts don't need to consider practicing sound, good science, but hype is not good science. So when you see people like me tempering things a bit, just know where it's coming from (: I'm not here to troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 For rather obvious reasons... chasers will hype a lot. Don't believe me? Check numerous PDS tor soundings on social media as a meteorologist it is important to try not getting caught up in hype games. High end potential exists but you have to consider the failure modes. Tomorrow could be a pretty epic day; last I checked however it seems some of the wrinkles will keep it from being an outbreak (of discrete tornadoes, that is). chasers and enthusiasts don't need to consider practicing sound, good science, but hype is not good science. So when you see people like me tempering things a bit, just know where it's coming from (: I'm not here to troll I hear ya man, was just curious being the tone with other events seems different in here today. And most of the chasers I've seen posting about it can't chase it. Usually they go out of their way to call the day a bust, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Being honest, I re ally don't think anyone is over hyping it. Mainly people saying it could be significant if all the aspects come together correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 There seems to be a supercell with a (potentially tornadic) hook echo in Mexico, 51 nautical miles west of Eagle Pass, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 As should be expected, SPC maintained just a MDT at 06z. Nonethless, MDT risk is much smaller. 15% hatched TOR risk and a 45% hatched wind risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, weatherextreme said: What is the context for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Day 1 outlook: Tornado, hail, and wind probabilities max out near Fort Polk, LA radar. Axis of maximum wind probability is a little more toward Shreveport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Not very confident we will be able to squeeze a high risk out of this. Perhaps at 1630z if confidence increases in a larger impacted area. Both MDT risk probability areas are too skinny and small to accommodate or even warrant a high risk. Regardless of the silly weenie semantics, should be a fun/interesting day to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 New outlook pushes MOD north and trims it down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 021016Z - 021215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 1030-11Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DISCUSSION...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOCATED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF WW 107 ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN MCS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MCV FORMATION IN THIS COMPLEX, GIVEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL CLOUD-TOP COOLING PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM THE VICINITY OF KAUS TO KHOU IS OCCURRING WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED RICH MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX OVERNIGHT, WITH ONGOING DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. STRENGTHENING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX WILL SUSTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH BOWING LINES AND SUPERCELLS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADO THREATS THROUGH THE DAY. ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Parts of central and east Texas * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted overnight west of San Antonio will likely begin to organize into more of a bowing line with time, with an attendant increase in the damaging wind risk. Embedded circulations will also pose a tornado risk. Ahead of the line of storms, more isolated cells now forming in the Houston to Austin corridor will shift northward with time, and some could become supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes later this morning. Large hail will also be possible with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Hondo TX to 40 miles south southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 107... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Already a couple supercells going north of the Houston metro. I think this is going to be a crazy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 I'm up and pretty much ready to go. Will go after any discrete cells between me and the MCS near San Antonio over the next few hours. Already some warned cells to the SE but those are going straight into the woods north of Houston. They also look rather messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 817 ACUS01 KWNS 021251 SWODY1 SPC AC 021249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ..SUMMARY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA, IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TRACK. THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. ...A COMPLEX, BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WEATHER EPISODE WITH TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI... ...MCS PATH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY... A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN. PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH, A LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT NEAR DEL RIO, WITH COLD POOL FORMATION BECOMING MORE APPARENT WITH TIME WITH THIS CLUSTER. PERSISTENT DIABATIC HEATING WITH THE CLUSTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MESOLOW/MCV FORMATION AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT, IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S) BENEATH A REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TX. THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE MCS, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BOWING CHARACTERISTICS. EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MCS, LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING WARM-ADVECTION STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, THOUGH GRADUAL SURFACE WARMING THROUGH MIDDAY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. THE NET RESULT OF THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION SHOULD BE AN INTENSIFYING/BOWING MCS WITH MERGING CELLS AND AN INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE MCS TRACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAKE SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY FROM EAST TX INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA, IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE MCS PATH. SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM THE MCS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN LA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ..LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA, AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, THOUGH STORM INTERACTIONS SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ANOTHER BAND/LINE. THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS, AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE, WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVERNIGHT INTO MS, WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BAND COULD APPROACH WEST-CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST AL NEAR SUNRISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Once again, this is all going to come down to storm mode, which seems to favor cells merging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 12z NAM has 65-70kt LLJ over LA this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 021404Z - 021630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A PORTION OF EAST TX. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA BY 16Z, AND A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. THE NEW WATCH MIGHT ALSO REPLACE THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 108. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING NUMEROUS DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN LA THROUGH EASTERN TX. THE STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, WHILE ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROBABLY INGESTING NEAR-SURFACE-BASED INFLOW PARCELS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STORMS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHEAST TX, BUT MAY STILL POSE A SHORT TERM LARGE HAIL THREAT. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DIABATIC WARMING MAY COMMENCE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST TX, CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO FAR WESTERN LA IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH. INCREASING 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE RESULTING FROM THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES AS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ..DIAL/HART.. 04/02/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 The south central Texas MCS/squall line looks like it is starting to break up into segments as it is passing eastward through the San Antonio/Austin area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 While the main action is back in eastern Texas, we have this renegade supercell along the warm front half way between Lake Charles and New Orleans, Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 small cells trying to develop ahead of llne now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 NOT PDS RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN THOSE STORMS THAT FORM IN THE WARM/HUMID AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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