Millennial kid of April Fools obs and pics

[dendrite]

13.2" final...1.38" water equiv.

snow depth is 18"

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Snow doesn't want to quit, starting to accumulate again as temps gone down below freezing, -SN, 31.3°F

That kicker shortwave is going to squeeze out whatever moisture is left.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That kicker shortwave is going to squeeze out whatever moisture is left.

heh...I didn't even look at radar. Maybe my accums aren't done.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

heh...I didn't even look at radar. Maybe my accums aren't done.

I picture the chickens sweating it out as you slowly tick towards 18"

[qg_omega]

10 to 12 inches at Gore, similar at Whiteface... The most snow was at and above 3k feet probably 5 inches at 1500 feet and 2 inches at 400 feet

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I picture the chickens sweating it out as you slowly tick towards 18"

They appreciated my Kevin style snow banks. It took some man power to move that man snow.

So is the CON total officially final (barring the stuff coming in) at 12.6"? My co-worker gives the a 2" range for my forecast for the airport. I had 11-13" so I hope they're done. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They appreciated my Kevin style snow banks. It took some man power to move that man snow.

So is the CON total officially final (barring the stuff coming in) at 12.6"? My co-worker gives the a 2" range for my forecast for the airport. I had 11-13" so I hope they're done.

They just called with 0.08" liquid in the last 6 hours that all melted on the snow board, so just a T additional. 12.6" is what we're going with barring any of this remaining stuff.

[dryslot]

 

25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That kicker shortwave is going to squeeze out whatever moisture is left.

There is a band building over the foothills moving SE thats going to come thru here and the WFO

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

It's all good. There is definite value to doing this with gusto. And it's different from basing a call on wishcast or reverse psychology, and it's different from calling for Feb 78 on the Cape every week, all of which gets predictable and tiring. Making substantiated calls with confidence and then learning from our mistakes is exactly how we get a little better every year. I personally also respect that you actually put up numbers rather than just shifting innuendo. Most don't do that. In any case, the personalities and characters here are also part of why we return year after year. I still to this day miss conversations with Messenger, someone I've never actually met.

Like you said, while we inure to other things in life, somehow this never gets old. And there's a real void when the season ends.

Nice 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They just called with 0.08" liquid in the last 6 hours that all melted on the snow board, so just a T additional. 12.6" is what we're going with barring any of this remaining stuff.

Does the observer do water equiv measurements for the climo? I noticed for 3/14 that the official liquid was quite a bit more than the ASOS. I figured GYX just went with an estimate of a straight 10:1 given the BLSN.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Does the observer do water equiv measurements for the climo? I noticed for 3/14 that the official liquid was quite a bit more than the ASOS. I figured GYX just went with an estimate of a straight 10:1 given the BLSN.

Yes she does, but we're actually mandated to use the ASOS unless we think it's wildly in error. And in that event we were nearly positive it undercaught the blowing snow so we used her measurements (which I believe added up to 10:1 despite each 6 hour chunk being different ratios).

[Lava Rock]

Guess we're not done yet. Starting to accumulate again

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[ajisai]

1.6 lol

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, ajisai said:

1.6 lol

4/1.   Normal max is 50.  Kind of like expecting big snows 11/15.   They happen but are rare.  Don't forget we had a snowy April last year.

[rimetree]

Radar filling in as that band heads southeast. Farewell flakes for the season?  32F

[HoarfrostHubb]

Snow machines going by my house on April 1st

 

 

 neat

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

4/1.   Normal max is 50.  Kind of like expecting big snows 11/15.   They happen but are rare.  Don't forget we had a snowy April last year.

I think it's more the comparison to forecast amounts: Boston verified 1.6" when TWC had 12-18" and a lot of mets here had 6-12" after the RGEM came in snowy.

Sure it's a nice event for April 1st, but sort of a letdown. Just like 3/14 was a great event for the date with 8-12" around NYC, but still a bust compared to expectations.

This storm had a lot of red flags though. Never bought into the hype with a weak sauce high well to the east and a measly 1000mb low on April 1st.

[nzucker]

8 hours ago, tamarack said:

Nitpick:  I think '82 had both.  Temps were near zero in N. Maine 1-2 days before the storm.  (And record cold NYC north during.)

Added another inch-plus thru the day, a bit surprising given only light snow and temps 32-33.  Of course, that accum only happened atop existing snow - even my white pickup couldn't hold snow.  Now that the sun has lowered to mid-Jan angle, looks like the snow is petering out.  Doubt I had a tenth of those deluge precip numbers from E.Mass, but a snow core thru the 27" pack today yielded 10.35" SWE, almost 40% water content.  The multiple crusts had softened a bit, so I may have gotten a better sample than the ones 2 weeks and 6 weeks back.

I know 1982 had arctic air, but I wanted to point out one event that was a big late season snowfall without a wound up low. 4/7/03 wasn't a huge Nor'easter but cold air saved the day.

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think it's more the comparison to forecast amounts: Boston verified 1.6" when TWC had 12-18" and a lot of mets here had 6-12" after the RGEM came in snowy.

Sure it's a nice event for April 1st, but sort of a letdown. Just like 3/14 was a great event for the date with 8-12" around NYC, but still a bust compared to expectations.

This storm had a lot of red flags though. Never bought into the hype with a weak sauce high well to the east and a measly 1000mb low on April 1st.

I think this setup 3/14 would have yielded big results.   As the mets stated, it was the warm tongue.  I mean it was snowing with temps near 40 but the delay in the AM flip made a big difference.   Most of us in the Boston area had 2-3 and I'm pretty sure it would have been double had it not been for that part.  12-18 was a ridiculous forecast.  No OCM in Boston had more than 2-4.  Kudos to them.  Everyone else fell victim to overzealous but unlikely guidance given the setup and calendar date.  Pretty wintry look though-just came back fro the dog with a few flakes flying.  Looking forward to the melt.   By my calculation, presuming BOS is done the season finishes at 47.4.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I mean... call it weak sauce if you want... but some places saw over 4" liquid equivalent. 

If it was a bit colder... this would have been a doozy 

[ncforecaster89]

On Sat Apr 01 2017 at 2:58 AM, wxsniss said:

...if this holds, would be an amazing way to commemorate the 20th anniversary.

Anyone know the highest Boston April snowfall, obviously aside from 1997?

 

Hi wxsniss! I meant to send you the attached link last night, but my phone crashed, and I subsequently did the same.  

As you noted, this event had the potential to be a top five April snowstorm (as the link clearly shows).  6" would have been a T5 for an April calendar day snowfall...for Boston. 11" top three!

Although I wanted one last significant snow storm chase before this season concludes, my concerns over the thermals in the mid-levels discouraged me from pulling the trigger. Congrats on those (such as Eyewall 'great pics btw', Dentrite, OceanStWx, SJones, PF, and all the others) who experienced a memorable April snowstorm!

I may not have been there in person, but I was most certainly in spirit, rooting for everyone in this subforum to do well.  And, that will always be the case!

http://snowfall.weatherdb.com/l/2690/Boston-Massachusetts

[ncforecaster89]

7 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Hi OceanStWx!  Was just looking through the PNS' attempting to determine the calendar snowfall for April 1 at the Portland Jetport.   It appears it was somewhere close to 9.1" or thereabouts.  If so, and if the data found near the bottom of this link is accurate...that total would qualify as a top 3 April snow for Portland.  Congrats, again!

https://snowfall.weatherdb.com/l/20888/Portland-Maine

[tamarack]

Snow finally quit here about 10 last night, with 3.5" from 0.36" LE.  Probably .05-.10 of that was melt-as-it-fell stuff 10A-3P.  22 hours of near constant -SN is more like a weak overrunning event in midwinter than the fringes of a juicy April storm, but all snow is good snow.  It's quite pretty this morning and the refreshed pack is 28".  We'll see if the milder midlevels Tuesday result in 4/4-5/07 (18" of moist pow) or 4/15-17/07, 5.2" of mush and loads of 34F catpaws.  (Of course, this storm won't be anywhgere near as powerful as Patriots Day '07.)

[codfishsnowman]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we went over this fairly well. You don't necessarily need an arctic airmass..although it helps. 4/3 last year wasn't exactly arctic. This storm was about 1C at 800mb off from getting widespread 12+. nrn MA still got 6-8" so not a terrible bust there. We all acknowledged the high bust potential fairly well, but it probably gets lost in the pollution of those phucking snow maps. Most of you weenies do it to yourselves. I don't know how many times I said this was not a snowmap storm. They do some funky sh*t with the output when you have marginal layers. 

No. Never mind the stupid snow maps, I clearly get what you are saying in that regard but there were a thousand posts here about models going insane with ccb in your area and isothermal this and that

frankly if this system had really been worth it's salt it would have flashed you guys over to heavy snow for several hours, at the end of the day the dynamics were not that amazing outside of having the advantage of using the meek one's available to produce a lot of precip from a deep excellent moisture source

the forecast was actually pretty good back here, an inch or so of sleet and slop, I don't think anyone back here expected anything more

dynamics that matter are Valentines day 2014, 3/1/97, 12/23/97, late jan 2011 nyc bomb, 3/1888 and so on

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

No. Never mind the stupid snow maps, I clearly get what you are saying in that regard but there were a thousand posts here about models going insane with ccb in your area and isothermal this and that

frankly if this system had really been worth it's salt it would have flashed you guys over to heavy snow for several hours, at the end of the day the dynamics were not that amazing outside of having the advantage of using the meek one's available to produce a lot of precip from a deep excellent moisture source

the forecast was actually pretty good back here, an inch or so of sleet and slop, I don't think anyone back here expected anything more

dynamics that matter are Valentines day 2014, 3/1/97, 12/23/97, late jan 2011 nyc bomb, 3/1888 and so on

We actually had a ton of precip in the CCB. So as far as dynamics for precip it was there. The problem is that it was literally 1C to warm aloft. But we also acknowledged that indeed it may only be 1-2hrs of good snow and that's what happened. There's a reason why many only went 2-4 or so here. The bigger bust was up on NE MA. I definitely would have forecasted more than 4" for Ray but they had questions too regarding when the temps would cool aloft. Basically 20-30 miles of latitude made the difference. Srn NH had what many expected for NE MA.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Pretty impressive mid level warmth when you get sleet into almost C VT. 

[ORH_wxman]

43 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

No. Never mind the stupid snow maps, I clearly get what you are saying in that regard but there were a thousand posts here about models going insane with ccb in your area and isothermal this and that

frankly if this system had really been worth it's salt it would have flashed you guys over to heavy snow for several hours, at the end of the day the dynamics were not that amazing outside of having the advantage of using the meek one's available to produce a lot of precip from a deep excellent moisture source

the forecast was actually pretty good back here, an inch or so of sleet and slop, I don't think anyone back here expected anything more

dynamics that matter are Valentines day 2014, 3/1/97, 12/23/97, late jan 2011 nyc bomb, 3/1888 and so on

I know all you care about are the sensible wx results but if you look at the radar and precip totals yesterday morning, you would see that the CCB was indeed quite impressive. Sometimes it just doesn't translate to prolific snowfall and the slightly warmer midlevels can be blamed for that. It happens. If every single storm produced to its max potential in Boston, then they'd probably average 125 inches of snow per year.

I do wish people would appreciate the uncertainty in forecasts a little more rather than do this grandstanding MMQB when the storm actually did produce a very impressive CCB. How many times did we say that we'd probably want to see things flip to snow by 09z?? I personally must have posted that like 10 times. Well, we didn't flip until closer to 14z-15z. So that was a huge issue. A place like ORH probably gets 10"+ instead of 4.4" if that happens. But there is really no way to say for certain prior to the storm if that flip would occur 6 hours later or not. When you look at the soundings, it's literally less than 1C that's calling the shots. 

[weathafella]

Melting leftovers....

 

 

[Amped]

Models have been way overdone on the southeast side of every storm this year.  If they were showing marginal PTYPE for an area, every  model map was too high by a factor of 2 except storm vistas 32f enforcement maps.  Either this has been the year that sneaky warm layers defeated dynamic cooling,  or models have improved and they are no longer too strong with mid level warmth like the good old days.  The GFS has been particularly useless..

[OceanStWx]

12 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi OceanStWx!  Was just looking through the PNS' attempting to determine the calendar snowfall for April 1 at the Portland Jetport.   It appears it was somewhere close to 9.1" or thereabouts.  If so, and if the data found near the bottom of this link is accurate...that total would qualify as a top 3 April snow for Portland.  Congrats, again!

https://snowfall.weatherdb.com/l/20888/Portland-Maine

We are officially reporting 7.9" after midnight for 4/1. 

And by the looks of that data they are just using the PWM history for those record values, but we have threaded the older Portland sites with PWM for precip. So by my glancing at the data it's not a top 3, but still top 10 (#9) calendar day.