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Millennial kid of April Fools obs and pics

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Not that anyone was expecting anything remotely close to that once-in-a-lifetime event, but it was an apt thread title Ginx:

Millennial kid of April 97... tons of social media hype... none of the meat and substance of the original:

Beacon_Hill_April_1997.jpg.a31a73cdc425485adb2388fc742cd68f.jpg

Beacon Hill, April 1, 1997

Not your Daddy's fool

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it was more about the mid levels...at least where I am.

Yeah we hashed this out a few times. It wasn't really a boundary layer issue verbatim. It's all tied in. For you it was a mid level issue. When you loose the power of latent cooling by cooking the DGZ, you will get temps to creep slowly up. Yesterday I got to 31.8 during daytime with east winds. As soon as I lost the snow, temp creeped slowly up. Where you are temps were plenty sufficient from what I saw on aircraft soundings. Even now, it's snowing good on s shore and we wetbulbed to 32 with snow on roads. When you skunk the DGZ you are screwed this time of year.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Ray one suggestion as a regular lurker: ease up on the bluster. There were lots of posts Thursday and Friday along the lines of the "conservative call, but I prefer the correct call" reply to SR Airglow, "a good mechanic looks over and under the hood", mocking some TV mets anticipating they would sink with their conservative forecasts. It can be annoying, and even amusing when it's wrong. The conservative calls Thursday were well-reasoned and proved to be correct. Your calls were also well-reasoned, and you saw I was up late last night thinking it was possible after that doozy 0z RGEM.

And it was extremely close. Had 800-825 layer cooled by 9z as some models had it last night (rather than 14z-15z in reality), Boston / northwest could easily be in a 4-8 / 6-12 range.

Don't take this the wrong way. You're obviously very skilled and experienced, and I know most here could not pull off the seasonal forecasts that you make (certainly I could not). But the one consistent "golden nugget" season after season is that this is often an extremely hard science that is better approached with humility. Our currency here is who is first to be correct, so there's a lure to be confident when your forecast is earlier or counter to consensus. But even the pro's fail and they move on. I am only a hobbyist, but to echo Will, it's the nature of this business. Harv's 2-4" for Boston / 4-8" for you was too high. NWS currently still has 4-6" for Boston / 6-8" for you and like many of us flinched with the 0z suite and put up 6-8" / 8-12". TWC at one point I think had 12-18" or something stupid for eastern MA. And they are all paid infinitely more than you or I to make an accurate forecast. I think even Hillbilly Weather guy was wrong.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Heavy snow on 495 between Mansfield and Taunton. Highway got covered in like 90 seconds

Cotton balls falling at home with a coating 

I was wondering that to myself based on some of the high-res guidance last night... wouldn't it be ironic if parts of southeast MA ended up with significantly more than Boston metro / north shore as the CCB compacted southeast.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I was wondering that to myself based on some of the high-res guidance last night... wouldn't it be ironic if parts of southeast MA ended up with significantly more than Boston metro / north shore as the CCB compacted southeast.

It's been snowing pretty hard for a while now.... but it's basically white rain outside of a coating.... under normal circumstances.... probably would have 3-4" at this point 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Ray one suggestion as a regular lurker: ease up on the bluster. There were lots of posts Thursday and Friday along the lines of the "conservative call, but I prefer the correct call" reply to SR Airglow, "a good mechanic looks over and under the hood", mocking some TV mets anticipating they would sink with their conservative forecasts. It can be annoying, and even amusing when it's wrong. The conservative calls Thursday were well-reasoned and proved to be correct. Your calls were also well-reasoned, and you saw I was up late last night thinking it was possible after that doozy 0z RGEM.

And it was extremely close. Had 800-825 layer cooled by 9z as some models had it last night (rather than 14z-15z in reality), Boston / northwest could easily be in a 4-8 / 6-12 range.

Don't take this the wrong way. You're obviously very skilled and experienced, and I know most here could not pull off the seasonal forecasts that you make (certainly I could not). But the one consistent "golden nugget" season after season is that this is often an extremely hard science that is better approached with humility. Our currency here is who is first to be correct, so there's a lure to be confident when your forecast is earlier or counter to consensus. But even the pro's fail and they move on. I am only a hobbyist, but to echo Will, it's the nature of this business. Harv's 2-4" for Boston / 4-8" for you was too high. NWS currently still has 4-6" for Boston / 6-8" for you and like many of us flinched with the 0z suite and put up 6-8" / 8-12". TWC at one point I think had 12-18" or something stupid for eastern MA. And they are all paid infinitely more than you or I to make an accurate forecast. I think even Hillbilly Weather guy was wrong.

Point taken......I like to forecast with gusto.

I understand the risk if it blows up, but if you aren't confident in what you're doing, then why do it.

I was wrong....feel free to critique.

One thing about me is that despite certainly being cocky and arrogant at times, I will always openly admit when I'm wrong, and give credit where is due...as i did publicly with DT on FB.

On a side note...this event remind me greatly of the halloween 2011 system here...with a bit more sleet.

 

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Well

LWM 5" depth

6.5 total (still snowing)33f

 

Took a weenie drive up 495 to Amesbury since i was watching dual pol most of nite and saw extreme NE mass in the snow and did not find any PNS reports past Haverhill (which was south of snow line in comparison).

.first stop a large farm field right when Take Amesbury Ma exit at 150.

8.5 settled depth (likely 10 inchsnowfall conservatively given compaction

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Point taken......I like to forecast with gusto.

I understand the risk if it blows up, but if you aren't confident in what you're doing, then why do it.

I was wrong....feel free to critique.

One thing about me is that despite certainly being cocky and arrogant at times, I will always openly admit when I'm wrong, and give credit where is due...as i did publicly with DT on FB.

On a side not...this ever remind me greatly of the halloween 2011 system here...with a bit more sleet.

 

Good post Ray.  

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we hashed this out a few times. It wasn't really a boundary layer issue verbatim. It's all tied in. For you it was a mid level issue. When you loose the power of latent cooling by cooking the DGZ, you will get temps to creep slowly up. Yesterday I got to 31.8 during daytime with east winds. As soon as I lost the snow, temp creeped slowly up. Where you are temps were plenty sufficient from what I saw on aircraft soundings. Even now, it's snowing good on s shore and we wetbulbed to 32 with snow on roads. When you skunk the DGZ you are screwed this time of year.

Thanks man. This is one we knew would be really tough--so we all certainly had that down. It's just one of those storms where you could be ok or even good with the details but still wayyy off with the impacts (e.g. accums on paved surfaces).

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Ray one suggestion as a regular lurker: ease up on the bluster. There were lots of posts Thursday and Friday along the lines of the "conservative call, but I prefer the correct call" reply to SR Airglow, "a good mechanic looks over and under the hood", mocking some TV mets anticipating they would sink with their conservative forecasts. It can be annoying, and even amusing when it's wrong. The conservative calls Thursday were well-reasoned and proved to be correct. Your calls were also well-reasoned, and you saw I was up late last night thinking it was possible after that doozy 0z RGEM.

And it was extremely close. Had 800-825 layer cooled by 9z as some models had it last night (rather than 14z-15z in reality), Boston / northwest could easily be in a 4-8 / 6-12 range.

Don't take this the wrong way. You're obviously very skilled and experienced, and I know most here could not pull off the seasonal forecasts that you make (certainly I could not). But the one consistent "golden nugget" season after season is that this is often an extremely hard science that is better approached with humility. Our currency here is who is first to be correct, so there's a lure to be confident when your forecast is earlier or counter to consensus. But even the pro's fail and they move on. I am only a hobbyist, but to echo Will, it's the nature of this business. Harv's 2-4" for Boston / 4-8" for you was too high. NWS currently still has 4-6" for Boston / 6-8" for you and like many of us flinched with the 0z suite and put up 6-8" / 8-12". TWC at one point I think had 12-18" or something stupid for eastern MA. And they are all paid infinitely more than you or I to make an accurate forecast. I think even Hillbilly Weather guy was wrong.

Very good post Wxsniss.  It's a tough tough science fur sure!! The more I learn from the pros and very talented hobbyists here..the more I realize that the science is still very much evolving..and there is so much we still have to learn.  Certainly Humbling.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Wxniss.....you were honestly too kind....no need to qualify your critique with the acknowledgement of how great I am.

Fact of the matter is that I puked all over myself, and some others deserve credit here for remaining conservative.

We are all adults....and we all, including me, have a lot to learn.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Out at winter hill...

 

Not bad. Decent icing on the trees and just over 4" of very very dense snow:

 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Nice but when Will uses a 6 inch ruler on Winter Hill and qpf is 2-4 inches it could have been a contendah. Great days of discussion though. much learned and as we thought Congrats Dendrite

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks like I played with fire and got singed on the eastern edge. I dropped Androscoggin from the warnings last evening, but the cut off looks like it will go right through that county now.

Hey just saw the Euro have fun next week with those two, holy heck

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