STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 nice totals in SE NH on latest PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe a little bullish in NE MA, but I can't blame going at least 6" there...I would have...there was pretty good model agreement on a good CCB this morning, and we've gotten it. It just took a little too long to get the good snows going...even the warmer models like the RGEM had it pounding 1-2" per hour for a few hours. I would have been more cautious in BOS itself though. Yeah I posted Thurs-Fri I was leaning conservative for Boston, but that single 0z RGEM run last night threw me off... > 1" qpf in the CCB this morning 12z-18z... had the makings of a positive bust from a well-timed spring-time bomb. Looks like it was placing the surface low too far west and dynamics were over-estimated. Odd blip for RGEM 12 hour forecast qpf-wise, and it went back down at 6z. Still terrible snow growth. Pretty sure Boston does not even make 2" the way this is trucking out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Will do you think this lift has another NNW push it in by 128-495 area or is it cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Ripping pretty good the past hour or so, too bad we couldn't have done thuis all night. Absolute cement sleet pack here. I can't wait to try out the new tractor. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ramping back up here. Over a foot a still doable. Congrats. Surprised at the Eversource map. Would've expected a lot more damage out your way. -SN/SN here. Wish it'd either ramp up to +SN or just stop so I can go about my weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 All snow, but as DT says, the ground is too wet for it to stick. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Flipped back to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will do you think this lift has another NNW push it in by 128-495 area or is it cooked It may try and pulse west one more time but the dynamics overall will be lessening. Esp after 15-16z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Wachusett webcam is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah I posted Thurs-Fri I was leaning conservative for Boston, but that single 0z RGEM run last night threw me off... > 1" qpf in the CCB this morning 12z-18z... had the makings of a positive bust from a well-timed spring-time bomb. Looks like it was placing the surface low too far west and dynamics were over-estimated. Odd blip for RGEM 12 hour forecast qpf-wise, and it went back down at 6z. Still terrible snow growth. Pretty sure Boston does not even make 2" the way this is trucking out of here. A lot of the guidance really curled that H5 low tightly just south of us which is exactly what you want to see. But it looks like they overdid it a little plus the extra midlevel warmth is hurting the depth of the SGZ. We did get some really good 1 hour precip rates this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Congrats. Surprised at the Eversource map. Would've expected a lot more damage out your way. -SN/SN here. Wish it'd either ramp up to +SN or just stop so I can go about my weekend. Outages are jumping south of LEB. Otherwise scattered around the restof this area. None in Northfield yet from NHEC. https://ebill.nhec.com/woViewer/mapviewer.html?config=Outage+Web+Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 I checked the Rain gauge before I made coffee and it said 3.6inches. Made coffee sat down and drank it. Checked the Rain gauge again and now I'm at 3.85inches. It's a deluge here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Wachusett webcam is awesome! WAWA and wennie ridge are getting crushed right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Another push to flip. Hopefully this does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: All snow, but as DT says, the ground is too wet for it to stick. lol pics? I am at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 NAM > Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Euro was pretty warm and juiced though. Tough to judge a model from clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: NAM > Euro Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Another flag that jbenedet and others discussed, the maritime influence skunking the boundary layer here and further north, so no decent cold pool to advect from up north... And now that dynamics are fizzling for dynamical cooling, we're actually going back to rain. The upshot: not even a 15 minute window of spectacular spring snow. We'll see how much further northwest these echoes can make it but not looking great. Box 1014am: Very impressive wcb/moisture plume into eastern Massachusetts. This will continue to pivot north a bit more thru 15z-16z and then begin to pull seaward toward 18z and especially exiting offshore by 21z. Thus heaviest precip occurring now thru 16zish then beginning to weaken. So as precip changes from rain to sleet to snow over northeast Massachusetts the other dilemma becomes surface temps. Strong east-northeast winds has flooded the coastal plain with maritime airmass with temps in the mid 30s. Upstream across southern New Hampshire temps only 33/34 so not a lot of cold air advection available. Cooling will have to come from vigorous upward motion (dynamical cooling) and melting snow initially (diabatic cooling). However some of the snow potential is being lost to the transition of sleet along with snow not accumulating on paved surfaces, reducing impacts. Thus it's a small window for snow to accumulate across northeast Massachusetts including the greater Boston area. Therefore will downgrade the Winter Storm Warning for the greater Boston area into coastal Essex County with an additional 1-3"...especially on non paved surfaces. Other forecast challenge will be as precip intensity slackens later this morning and early afternoon, snow and sleet across northeast Massachusetts into greater Boston area may flip back to rain. Overall greatest impacts today will be north and west of I-495 across the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut. It's been happening more and more - it's not blind anymore... NAM killed it down here on March 14 and last Jan it led the way too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 I'd say we're about 90% snow now. It needs to ramp up if we're going to accumulate though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 It's going to take more than a couple of storms to balance out the sample size of storm defecations that the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's going to take more than a couple of storms to balance out the sample size of storm defecations that the NAM had. I am curious to see (in a year or so) how the upgraded NAM does vs the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Another flag that jbenedet and others discussed, the maritime influence skunking the boundary layer here and further north, so no decent cold pool to advect from up north... And now that dynamics are fizzling for dynamical cooling, we're actually going back to rain. The upshot: not even a 15 minute window of spectacular spring snow. We'll see how much further northwest these echoes can make it but not looking great. hey its cold at 925, beware the marine layer in all seasons its a biatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Just now, danstorm said: It's been happening more and more - it's not blind anymore... NAM killed it down here on March 14 and last Jan it led the way too Eh. It's like every winter to me. It always scores a coup or two but it's often within a sea of incompetency. I'll give it credit that it was decent in two high profile events (last January and March 14th this year) but it's had some really horrible ones too. I mean, that's why we still check it and don't completely ignore it like the nogaps or cras model...since it does occasionally provide some usefulness. But I still weight it pretty low overall...I usually really want the RGEM to confirm it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Still coming down in the CPV. BTV has made it to 100" for the season. I am not at home to measure but I am sure it is north of 7"Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 The marine layer is only an issue when you don't have the latent heat of melting helping to cool the column. If we did not have the warm tongue, you would have no issues as it's still cold a couple of thousand feet up. You'd [probably cool down to 32-33 and heavy paste. But with the sleet and rain, you lose that physical process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: hey its cold at 925, beware the marine layer in all seasons its a biatch I don't think the marine layer was really a big issue. It was midlevel temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Still coming down in the CPV. BTV has made it to 100" for the season. I am not at home to measure but I am sure it is north of 7" Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk You can stop whining now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's going to take more than a couple of storms to balance out the sample size of storm defecations that the NAM had. Also wonder if that sampling has seasonal biases... NAM probably would score really well if we looked only at April snowstorms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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