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Millennial kid of April Fools obs and pics


Ginx snewx

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One huge and simple reason for the ramping up from conservative to bullish in eastern SNE: rates.

 

Much more believable that we wash out intruding warm layers if we have intense rates. In my mind, this event was always about the CCB, and that looked kind of meager on most guidance including the RGEM before tonight.

Here's one good example of how guidance has ramped up tonight: for the 9z-15z timeframe, RGEM qpf output in Boston:

     4/1 0z: > 1.5"

     3/31 18z: ~ .8"

     3/31 12z: ~ .7"

     3/31 6z: ~ .5"

And for this context and lead time, I believe that much more than the 0z GFS which is silly dry. I expect Euro to follow.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totals for the balance:

Bouchard Belter.png

 

It's deceptive though... on balance, that 0z Kuchera looks like a retreat from 12z Euro run, but in fact that's because the earlier run was much wetter in the 0z-6z Sat timeframe (the crap we've seen tonight)

In fact, this 0z Euro run is better in the 12z-18z timeframe, and that's when I think we will have a better shot of accumulating snow

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Man, a far cry from the event twenty years ago but looks like some spots will still do well!

I remember going to bed in '97 with about 8" on the ground in Southborough, waking up the next morning to nearly three feet was insane! The snow was too thick for our snowblower to chew through, spent all day shoveling the driveway -  could only shovel one layered foot at a time - and then a path for our adult German Shepherd so he could do his business in the backyard. 

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11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Boston could be looking at 6-12" now. Euro is fully on board. Holy CCB tomorrow.

The 7h track is almost ideal. It stacks perfectly. This could be one of the most memorable April events in some time if that verifies.

Yep been harping on the CCB ramping up... 0z RGEM + Euro + HRRRs significantly ramped up rates in the 10z-18z timeframe, plus the duration has trended longer into the early afternoon too. That is good reason to go bullish. Assuming the warm layers 775-850 crash which they should as the mid level centers track below us along with dynamic cooling, this has all the makings of a top April event. 

If this holds, would be an amazing way to commemorate the 20th anniversary.

Anyone know the highest Boston April snowfall, obviously aside from 1997?

 

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Yep been harping on the CCB ramping up... 0z RGEM + Euro + HRRRs significantly ramped up rates in the 10z-18z timeframe, plus the duration has trended longer into the early afternoon too. That is good reason to go bullish. Assuming the warm layers 775-850 crash which they should as the mid level centers track below us along with dynamic cooling, this has all the makings of a top April event. 

Amazing way to commemorate the 20th anniversary.

Anyone know the highest Boston April snowfall, obviously aside from 1997?

 

I'm not going to be sleeping tonight. That's how ridiculous this looks. The mid levels scream big time pummel tomorrow as dawn breaks. 

Surface temps above freezing. Going to be snow stuck to every single surface due to the rain. 

A type of event we haven't had in awhile. The storm that hit while Scott was away didn't bring the accums here. This one will. 

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10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I'm not going to be sleeping tonight. That's how ridiculous this looks. The mid levels scream big time pummel tomorrow as dawn breaks. 

Surface temps above freezing. Going to be snow stuck to every single surface due to the rain. 

A type of event we haven't had in awhile. The storm that hit while Scott was away didn't bring the accums here. This one will. 


Yeah guidance really escalated tonight. I think we're safe catching zzz's until at least 6am in Boston... HRRR makes the changeover ~11-12z. Plus the RS line still stuck around Gloucester. It sort of pivots in orientation as the midlevel centers track under us and then collapses. Then the best of the CCB in that 12z-18z timeframe. That March 14 event was a public forecasting fail in Boston area.

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