codfishsnowman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 at least half inch of sleet, everything white with sleet but precip very light now nam ftw.....again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Gonna go see if I have any paws yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 One huge and simple reason for the ramping up from conservative to bullish in eastern SNE: rates. Much more believable that we wash out intruding warm layers if we have intense rates. In my mind, this event was always about the CCB, and that looked kind of meager on most guidance including the RGEM before tonight. Here's one good example of how guidance has ramped up tonight: for the 9z-15z timeframe, RGEM qpf output in Boston: 4/1 0z: > 1.5" 3/31 18z: ~ .8" 3/31 12z: ~ .7" 3/31 6z: ~ .5" And for this context and lead time, I believe that much more than the 0z GFS which is silly dry. I expect Euro to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gonna go see if I have any paws yet... Nope..all sleet still. Temp is creeping up, too...32.2 GF in Andover probably has some snow mixing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Where are you guys getting your webcams? 511 or another source? And any plans for sleep? I was gonna squeeze in a few hours and wake up for the changeover, probably after Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Through 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Totals for the balance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 CCB slams eastern SNE 12z-18z... like the RGEM, Euro ramped up qpf in that timeframe from 0.6" to 0.8-0.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Just got out of bed to get some heartburn meds and no parachutes yet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totals for the balance: It's deceptive though... on balance, that 0z Kuchera looks like a retreat from 12z Euro run, but in fact that's because the earlier run was much wetter in the 0z-6z Sat timeframe (the crap we've seen tonight) In fact, this 0z Euro run is better in the 12z-18z timeframe, and that's when I think we will have a better shot of accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Line has stalled again past hour....sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Think I'm gonna crash since the progress has stalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Think I'm gonna crash since the progress has stalled. good luck up there but as of now I think this thing doesn't look that great even for your area, hopefully you get what you want tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 My buddy Dave in Dracut is reporting a few flakes mixing in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Temp rise ceased...back down to 32.1/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Don't think this is going to be remembered for snow. Sleet is just crazy out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 EURO lowered my total about 2"...total is 5" lower than 12z, and I have about 3" of snow/sleet down. I'd consider that noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Seems I'm in a good spot for this 1. 8" 31f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Guidance doesn't have RS line crashing significantly before the 850mb low nears our longitude... on the 4z HRRR, that's ~ 10-12z... then it unleashes on eastern SNE 12z-18z A few hours of sleep now makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Here is the sleet line at 6am...its dead on at hr 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Important to remind these are high numbers for snow... and the snow is gonna paste. high impact event coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Man, a far cry from the event twenty years ago but looks like some spots will still do well! I remember going to bed in '97 with about 8" on the ground in Southborough, waking up the next morning to nearly three feet was insane! The snow was too thick for our snowblower to chew through, spent all day shoveling the driveway - could only shovel one layered foot at a time - and then a path for our adult German Shepherd so he could do his business in the backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 The experimental HRRR drops a foot in Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Boston could be looking at 6-12" now. Euro is fully on board. Holy CCB tomorrow. The 7h track is almost ideal. It stacks perfectly. This could be one of the most memorable April events in some time if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Just checked the HRRR. Holy moly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 6-12" is a fair range at BOS right now. I'd lean toward 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Boston could be looking at 6-12" now. Euro is fully on board. Holy CCB tomorrow. The 7h track is almost ideal. It stacks perfectly. This could be one of the most memorable April events in some time if that verifies. Yep been harping on the CCB ramping up... 0z RGEM + Euro + HRRRs significantly ramped up rates in the 10z-18z timeframe, plus the duration has trended longer into the early afternoon too. That is good reason to go bullish. Assuming the warm layers 775-850 crash which they should as the mid level centers track below us along with dynamic cooling, this has all the makings of a top April event. If this holds, would be an amazing way to commemorate the 20th anniversary. Anyone know the highest Boston April snowfall, obviously aside from 1997? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Yep been harping on the CCB ramping up... 0z RGEM + Euro + HRRRs significantly ramped up rates in the 10z-18z timeframe, plus the duration has trended longer into the early afternoon too. That is good reason to go bullish. Assuming the warm layers 775-850 crash which they should as the mid level centers track below us along with dynamic cooling, this has all the makings of a top April event. Amazing way to commemorate the 20th anniversary. Anyone know the highest Boston April snowfall, obviously aside from 1997? I'm not going to be sleeping tonight. That's how ridiculous this looks. The mid levels scream big time pummel tomorrow as dawn breaks. Surface temps above freezing. Going to be snow stuck to every single surface due to the rain. A type of event we haven't had in awhile. The storm that hit while Scott was away didn't bring the accums here. This one will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I'm not going to be sleeping tonight. That's how ridiculous this looks. The mid levels scream big time pummel tomorrow as dawn breaks. Surface temps above freezing. Going to be snow stuck to every single surface due to the rain. A type of event we haven't had in awhile. The storm that hit while Scott was away didn't bring the accums here. This one will. Yeah guidance really escalated tonight. I think we're safe catching zzz's until at least 6am in Boston... HRRR makes the changeover ~11-12z. Plus the RS line still stuck around Gloucester. It sort of pivots in orientation as the midlevel centers track under us and then collapses. Then the best of the CCB in that 12z-18z timeframe. That March 14 event was a public forecasting fail in Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FitzWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 I think about 4" of snow on the pavement in Amesbury. Plows are out. Real pasty, sticking to everything. We had sleet for a few hours then went to snow. Looks like we may go back some sleet for awhile. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BOX-N0C-1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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